James Shields@scaling_shields
your landlord is praying you never run this equation
it takes 30 seconds and it flips the entire power dynamic
here it is:
cost of you leaving:
- 1-2 months vacant finding new tenant: $2,000-4,000
- listing fees and agent commissions: $500-1,000
- application screening and background checks: $200-400
- showing the unit 15-20 times: 10+ hours of their life
- risk of getting a worse tenant who pays late: unquantifiable
total cost when you walk: $3,500-5,400
now their "strategy":
rent increase: $150/month
their annual gain: $1,800
your replacement cost to them: $4,500+
they're risking $4,500 to gain $1,800
that's not business
that's a bluff
and they're praying you don't call it
the data they don't want you to see:
- only 28% of tenants ever negotiate
- 58% who ask get a reduction
- average savings: $80-150/month
- annual savings: $960-1,800
landlords aren't outsmarting anyone
they're just counting on silence
the email that breaks the bluff:
"hi [landlord],
my lease renews soon. i've paid on time every month and kept the unit in good condition.
i've found comparable units at [lower price]. i'd like to stay, but the rent needs to remain at [current rate] for that to work.
let me know."
send 30-60 days before renewal
what happens:
- 40% fold immediately
- 35% negotiate to something lower
- 25% say no (you lost nothing)
winter exploit (nov-feb):
vacancies take 2x longer to fill in cold months
meaning their $4,500 loss becomes $6,000-8,000
"i know finding tenants this time of year is tough. i'd like to make this easy, but the numbers need to work for me."
you're not asking
you're showing them you ran the equation
the 2-year lock:
"i'll sign a 2-year lease at [current rate]. guaranteed income for you, no turnover risk, no renegotiation."
they'll take less per month to avoid running this math again next year
your landlord's whole game is information asymmetry
they know the numbers
they're betting you don't
now you do
one email. 30 seconds of math.
$1,800/year they were hoping you'd never claim
