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- Macro BTC considerations -
I believe it’s important at this point in the cycle to share my overall view on Bitcoin to offer a rational, data-driven perspective rather than one based on “hope.”
When taking a broader look at the market, we need to examine the weekly chart.
As we can clearly see, we’ve had a two-year uptrend during which a high-risk asset like Bitcoin has delivered a +700% performance from its lows.
It’s natural, logical, and highly rational to think that, at this stage of the market, this long-term movement will eventually come to an end and that someone will need to provide exit liquidity before the market begins to collapse.
If it still needs to be repeated: this is definitely not the time to buy BTC for the long term, nor is it the time to be overexposed with long positions.
A few concrete examples, beyond the “mere” analysis in terms of overperformance, can be found in the nature of the HTF price movements.
1⃣) The long March-November range was clearly an accumulative one and this can be visible not only by the strong BO but also from the type of volumes coming in at spring phase (buyers stepping in to absorb)
2⃣) The distribution we saw in December 2024 was a first move in order to re-accumulate through a 3 drive front-running the key demand/breaker at 72K.
This is an important sign because in a clean healthy environment, you don't want to frontrun those areas as orders to push to the upside are not being collected.
The sell-off from 112K to 98K is a first distributive sign.
3⃣) Now observe the correlation between the last highs, the volumes and the nature of the bearish moves.
Each push to the upside has been immediately utilized as a reason to unload positions from smart money and this is proven by the aggressiveness paired with increasing tick volumes.
Even weekly FP points it out.
The highlighted candle in the FP shows a large increase in traded volume (5.32B)paired with a negative delta (-49M).
That means a massive amount of transactions took place, but selling pressure dominated: sellers were hitting the bid aggressively despite the surge in activity.
In short: high activity + negative delta = aggressive selling into demand, a sign of potential exit liquidity being provided by retail buyers while smart money sell.
Now there's one thing that must be taken into consideration and I believe is important in this context: the HTF MS.
In the chart above I pointed out a clean downside SFP so buyers have been able to save the weekly closure and with it, the HTF MS, so we don't have a confirmed BOS that may suggest us a full reversal.
We have signs but we don't have confirmations yet.
What does it mean?
That technically speaking we may even see another push higher, even a new high (116K is they key high to reclaim in this case) but if so, that will likely be the final push before, in my opinion, the meltdown.
In this scenario there's also another and last thing to add that is meandering my mind: the last liquidation event.
As we know, 19B have been liquidated and during that moment, exchanges didn't work giving no possibility to retails to buy the very bottom of the move..only smart money did and before the weekly closure.
Why?
1⃣) They're gonna use it as final exit TP after the last rebound sending everything down over the coming weeks
2⃣) They're gonna use it as fuel to ignite the last move higher before the biblical collapse
Personally, profits are secured with what made during the cycle till now but I still have some exposure + leverage trades in case they're gonna "send it" for the grand finale.
Either ways, exciting and crucial times ahead.
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