Road Out Of Serfdom

@JonahLupton We need another late April/early May where we all rally together.

Software stocks having a good day. Semis and ai infrastructure stocks not having a good day. Seems like another rotation day based on the premise that open source models will be cheaper for software companies to implement/integrate into their workflows, products, development etc which could accelerate productivity gains and margin expansion however as that adoption and usage accelerates so does the demand for compute… so I think the selloff in many of the ai infrastructure names is misguided because companies switching to open source models doesn’t diminish the need for more compute… it actually increases it. Just my opinion. Feel free to disagree.

@NC_Patri0t Shouldn't NH also be just lean D since Sununu is allegedly a good candidate?

likely D alaska are we serious

@davey_juice You hate to see them leave the nest but it was time.

Sold rest of my entire $now position close to 108.. Good bye again old friend 😢 We shall meet again soon

$QQQ At 22 NTM P/E the index is now cheaper than it was at the October 2023 low, and only ~2-3% higher than the 2025 and 2026 lows. Keep in mind all the large companies reporting in the upcoming weeks will drag this valuation even lower unless price begins to rally. Yes, several of the largest companies in the index are now FCF negative due to CapEx but that cash flow is being sent into other large companies also within the index.

@mathlonning Since it's only AI infra getting smacked today that's what I think it is after the NVDA news released this weekend

@RoadOutOfSerfdm I mean, could be

Interesting price action

@fundmyfund Why can't people just buy shares instead of using margin?

Sigh

When people bought "tech" stocks in October 2023, April 2025, and March 2026 around these Q valuations they made a lot of money. I bet charts looked similarly terrible back then although you would have a better idea on that then I would. I still expect 2027 EPS in tech stocks to increase from this year, even if the free cash flow keeps pouring into semiconductors/hardware at the expense of hyperscalers. And therefore, I'm not concerned about a total collapse here given the valuation. Remains to be seen.

@RoadOutOfSerfdm thanks for sharing but for some reason all i see is insane amount of brutal corrections and many names are year 6 into a lost decade.

$QQQ broke range balance today and closed under it. Either we break down (based on how ugly charts are) or they pull a March 31st.

@realroseceline @varuninvesting At 22 forward EPS aren't theoretical competitive pressures more than priced in? Even if operating margin was, say, 60% instead of 78% like they reported last quarter it would still be a bargain.

@varuninvesting The economics looks extraordinary, but they are also a huge flashing red sign that says your margin is my opportunity. Can they sustain these economics over time? I don’t know the answer, but since I laid eyes on them that’s been my feeling. 🌹

Seeing a lot of people talk about $APP What’s the bear case?

@TheBigBerbowski Management reiterating their guide to quintuple sales from FY2025 to FY2027 and then meeting estimates next two ER.

What needs to happen for $AAOI to hit ATH again? Are you buying today?

@JonahLupton @babyfolio 20 weekly sma at 675 too

@babyfolio On the downside it's possible that $QQQ finds support at the VWAP from March lows ($684) and 100d however if that does not hold then the 50% retracement from March lows and 200d seem like the next most obvious spot ($652)

$QQQ is down 8% from ATH What do you think stops the correction?

@Mindset4Money_X Higher

Will $NOW be higher or lower than $92 in a year?

@realroseceline Yeah I actually think they are cooked. The other hyperscalers look so much better by comparison.

$170b debt… Did $ORCL blow up its balance sheet? 🌹

@TradingDeskTy Unfortunately, I believe you bought Digital Turbine, a shitco that has been SBC-adjusted FCF-per-share negative for every quarter except one the last 3.5 years and not Applovin.

I added to my $APP position this week. +103% increase. AppLovin is now 12% of my portfolio.

@Geiger_Capital I love how you throw out "TACO" as if the military campaign wasn't incredible ambitious to begin with.

We’re getting closer to TACO territory.

@TonerousHyus @earlyvotedata September WTI reaching 100 wouldn't be ideal. Would like to see it turn around here.

@earlyvotedata lol he blocked me when I brought up his article predicting gas would average $4.90 a gallon this summer

Is it $200 yet?

@TradingDeskTy @AppLovin This is awesome. Send it to 15 forward P/E now.

@AppLovin just unlocked View-Through Attribution. Instead of strictly measuring last-click performance, dashboard reporting now captures user impressions that viewed an ad, didn't click immediately, but converted later. Key takeaways: • Full visibility into the non-click halo effect • More accurate incrementality measurement • Direct parity with Meta and legacy social attribution • Solves why Triple Whale / Northbeam / MER often outpaced AppLovin's in-dashboard reporting $APP

$TSLA Stock down over 12% and forward P/E has barely moved. Stock is still extremely expensive over 159 NTM P/E and I'm not sure if you can even trust preliminary near-term estimates as this company NEVER hits their target. Now that the growth in their energy segment has stagnated, I am not sure what there is to be excited about in 2026. Stock could drop below 200 before Optimus ramp next year and it wouldn't surprise me.

@davey_juice You were one of the original "this company always sandbags" accounts. You don't think there is any way they only do 25% top line this year, do you? I would be shocked if FY2027 is below 30% with 35% within striking distance.

Will start to add to $rbrk again in the 60s As a reminder I sold my position down from 100k$ to 9k$ from 80-89 because I didn’t think their growth profile warranted a large stake at that price. I think in the 60s it looks better, and I want to have a bit of cyber exposure and it’s my favorite cyber play.. will give them 1-3 more quarters to change my mind, but will only buy lightly in the 60s and only start to buy larger tranches in the 50s