Roberto Jamieson

@Thedrivenman Machiavelli was dumb

@allenf32 @BitPaine what makes it retarded?

@BitPaine you are aware that pascal's wager is retarded?

While this is correct, what the theoretical advance in the Google paper does to change my risk calculus is compress the timeframe we would have to react if the impossible thing were to become possible. I had naively assumed that the impossible thing would become possible gradually. This paper argues both that it may become possible suddenly, and/or that it may become incrementally possible but kept classified until such time as secp256k1 is rather imminently at risk. In such a scenario, moving sooner rather than later to implement a safety measure, even if it is premature and unnecessary, and even if it does not become widely adopted, is nonetheless prudent. Bitcoin has undergone many changes that were arguably unnecessary and undeniably underutilized (e.g. taproot, which has mostly been used for JPEG spam) for things that weren’t existential risks, and which are now prompting rollback discussions. Taking such an action preemptively to mitigate an existential risk is a far better reason to take on technical debt - even if all it does is shut up FUDsters that slow adoption. If you have only 5-10% of your net worth in Bitcoin, an existential risk may be of little consequence. But many people, myself included, have all or a majority of their portfolios in Bitcoin or Bitcoin-backed equities like $IBIT or $MSTR. We are comfortable with volatility because we understand the fundamentals of the system to be sound. For such people, even a 5-10% probability of an ECDSA break in a short timeframe is an unacceptable level of risk if left unaddressed, and would necessitate a significant hedge or de-risking for basic risk management because it threatens the fundamental soundness of the system and poses a likely unsalvageable wound to the monetization/adoption curve. In 2021, you would have called the capabilities of the AIs we now routinely interact with “impossible.” That was five years ago. We live in a time when it is unwise to bet your entire net worth that the impossible will never become possible, particularly when it involves a technology whose progress you cannot readily assess because it will be kept tightly classified until it is ready for prime time. The worst-case scenario of a too-soon PQC upgrade is that it must be modified or rolled back. The worst-case scenario of a too-slow PQC upgrade is that Bitcoin dies. Taking Pascal’s wager here is an easy call.

@LukeDashjr @CorySwan Even keys from segwit addresses?

@CorySwan Taproot changed the first part. Keys are always exposed now. If quantum computers were imminent (it's not), Bitcoin would be in danger.

The Bitcoin quantum FUD is lazy and wrong. A quantum attacker needs your public key to even start. If you never reuse addresses, your public keys stay hidden, as secret as your private keys. Your Bitcoin at rest is safe. And the hardware needed to crack a Bitcoin key in a day? 13 million physical qubits. Best machines today have about 1,000. We're four orders of magnitude away from the threat these people are fear-mongering about. Basic address hygiene defeats the entire attack vector.

@BretWeinstein Bret, with all due respect: bitcoin is open source. If you say it is compromised I ask you to show us where in the code this is. The people who write bitcoin software are not bitcoin. Please don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

We need a secure, decentralized, denationalized cryptocurrency. The problem with discussing Bitcoin in this context: It is impossible to distinguish those who believe in it and are therefore invested, from those who are invested in it and therefore believe.

@DocRoger O mecanismo de ajuste de dificuldade do bitcoin torna essa métrica irrelevante. Se o preço cair para perto/abaixo do custo da eletricidade, muitos mineradores irão desligar equipamentos, reduzindo a dificuldade de mineração e por consequência reduzindo o custo de mineração.

BTC está chegando perto dos 58k, electric cost do momento para minerar. Momentos de tensão na comunidade crypto.

@allenf32 Gold is just a tulip bubble

woah that’s like 60 million bitcoin 👀

@raicher É impressão minha ou tá se formando um o-c-o no diário?

🤣 thanks, China! Vocês esperaram o rompimento do neckline né? Né?

Log 303 / 365 - ROMPEMOS a MA77! Agora é nosso Suporte no #Diario! - CANCELAMOS a Agulhada QED! Ainda bem! 🙏🏻 - Confirmamos rompimento da Resistência Inferior (agora Suporte Inferior) do RSI! - StochRSI cruzou QED! - Alvo primário na linha Laranja 🍊 Além disso, fizemos o 4º cruzamento nessa linha (2 agulhadas + 2 cruzamentos simples). SUPER relevante.

@ianbremmer Now do BRICS minus China.

change in brics countries’ share of global gdp, 1990-2030

@raicher Talvez eu me arrependa de perguntar isso, mas: o que vem a ser uma agulhada?

Atenção 🚨 iniciantes™ Em 1h podemos presenciar um evento RARÍSSIMO na história do bitcoin Agulhada Clássica! É nada menos que o cruzamento das médias 7, 21 e 77 em um mesmo ponto ao mesmo tempo. Significa que atingimos um ponto mínimo de volatilidade dentro de uma trend que acabamos de descobrir um dos 2 eixos. Se NADA mudar, a agulhada vai acontecer daqui 1h mas só vamos confirmar no fechamento seguinte daqui aproximadamente 7 horas. Vou tentar descobrir as trends. 😱 #log

Log 266 / 365 😮‍💨 Final de Semana da Sofrência. Os caras estão guardando toda a emoção para o Semanal 😂 - Resultado do gravestone doji POR ENQUANTO foi de um tímido dip sub MA7 - Também perdemos o Suporte Inferior do RSI mas estamos muito perto da linha, ou seja, na região dos traps - Enquanto isso, StochRSI diverge e permanece bullish no #diario - Enquanto isso, a média do RSI mostra como sofremos por tempo suficiente no passado recente Olho no Suporte da Média do RSI. Neste ponto é a melhor baliza. Acima dela, permanecemos bullish com alvo na linha Roxa. Abaixo, a gente procura o fundo. Ui.

@felipecamozzato É só aprender a usar o Nostr. nostr.com

Foi bom enquanto durou tudo isso aqui. Daqui pra frente, qualquer coisa que você escreva poderá ser apagado, a não ser que você seja o Andre Janones ou a Gleisi Hoffmann. Discurso de ódio tá proibido, a menos que seja contra Israel. Aí tá liberado.

@notgrubles Filters don't work. So we need filters to filter out the filters.

Am I reading this correctly. You want to ban nearly 3000 nodes? That's objectively more stupid than what Knots is doing. Bravo 😂

@ancapsu Nada de pedido de impeachment??

Nikolas devastador mais uma vez

@felipecamozzato Cadê o pedido de impeachment?

Roubar de idosos, eis a nova e desprezível modalidade da quadrilha petista e seus aliados. O governo Lula ACABOU!

@thetrocro @LynAldenContact When will the podcast be out?

For those of you who haven't figured it out yet--maybe that's no one--@LynAldenContact is really smart . Just recorded a podcast with her in which she was about 3 steps ahead the whole time. 🤣 Good times.

@thetrocro He talks about the monetary base being around 4 trillion dollars at 2:19. I suppose he is referring to M0. If so it must have been between 2014 and 2018. Just a guess.

@RobertoJami good point: it may not be contemporary. I was under that impression.

Krugman has retreated from the "impossible" trench and is now digging into the "kinda unlikely" trench.

@LdeLiberdade1 Pq esse vídeo levou strike?

Como prometido, aqui está o vídeo polêmico responsável pelo primeiro strike do canal. Discurso de ódio? Só se for contra os políticos e contra quem acha o real digital uma ideia razoável. O que o GOVERNO NÃO QUER que você saiba sobre o DREX e o CONTROLE SOCIAL

@ConceptualJames Nostr

The whole public square being owned by one guy is a lot of eggs in a single basket.

@lopp @Jon_HQ Does this take in account the (I imagine) larger size taken by qc resistant signatures?

@Jon_HQ Best case scenario would require at least 6 months of block space but yeah, practically speaking it would be preferable to give users many years to migrate.

Last week I gave a presentation about the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin. Many have dismissed QC as something that will never materialize. Recently a QC researcher who has spent 25 years working in the field gave a talk about what's changing. scottaaronson.blog/?p=8329