Roh Habibi

If you're buying or selling in San Francisco right now, pricing strategy matters more than it has in years. I work with buyers and sellers across the city at Golden Gate Sotheby's International Realty. DM me. Every conversation is confidential.

SF is the only housing market west of the Mississippi with more buyers than sellers. Buyers outnumbered sellers by 14% in May Oakland: sellers outnumber buyers by 30%+. LA: 56%

Noe Valley has the most of these sales. Presidio Heights and Pacific Heights have the biggest dollar overbids

Average list price on these homes: $3.8M. Average sale price: $5.3M Cow Hollow home on Union Street: listed $8M, sold for $15M Presidio Heights home on Spruce Street: listed $4M, sold for $8.2M

44 of those closed in June alone Same period 2025: only 8 deals like this Same period 2024: only 6

144 SF homes sold at least $1M over asking in the first half of 2026

This isn’t exactly “official” yet, but a major Bay Area tech IPO is going to liquidate enough employees to push another 50–80 buyers into the $3M–$7M market over the next 18 months. The houses they want already exist. Most of them aren’t listed.

This isn’t exactly “official” yet, but I’m watching three trends quietly reshape the East Bay luxury market in 2026:

None of this is in any headline. All of it is in my closings.

Round Hill, Diablo, and Blackhawk are seeing renewed interest from buyers who used to only look in Atherton. Different commute math now.

Tech founders are buying second homes in Alamo before they sell their SF primary. The Bay Area diversification play is real.

This isn’t exactly “official” yet, but a notable Bay Area founder just closed on a Lamorinda property in the high 7s. Off-market. No press. No drone shots. The neighbors will find out from the moving truck. That’s how the top of this market moves now.

I probably shouldn’t say this but Zillow’s Zestimate on your $4M Alamo home is off by an average of 8% In either direction That’s $320K of error on a number people are quoting at dinner parties like it’s the gospel Don’t price your home off a website that’s never walked thru it.

You heard it here first, the next 12-18 months the east bay 🏡 prices are gonna rocket Everyone’s getting priced out of SF, already have been priced out of Silicon Valley, they are already heading to Marin County and will be priced out there, then they will come to the east bay

I probably shouldn’t say this, but most real estate “marketing” is theater for the seller, not strategy for the sale. Drone shots, magazine ads, broker tours. Looks impressive. Sells nothing. The buyer for your home already exists. The job is finding them, not performing for them

You didn’t hear this from me but two of the three biggest closings in Westside Alamo this year were referred by the same wealth advisor He’s not a real estate agent He just knows everyone who needs to move and connects them quietly. That’s how the top of the market actually works

The right house, priced right, still sells fast. Always has. The market isn’t broken. The pricing strategy is. Most of the homes you see lingering on Zillow have one thing in common, and it isn’t the house

Buyers are not “waiting for rates to drop.” They’re waiting for the right house.

You didn’t hear this from me, but here’s what’s actually happening in luxury Bay Area real estate right now: