Ron Sear

Observe the trend of the 10 year vs the “BUY and Sell” signals being triggered and overlap that with the times to go long and short $SPX. The signal to short $SPX was triggered today. I now have oil and fixed income calling for lower stock values. It’s a trend to appreciate.

$SPX was down -0.41% today to close at 7,108.33. My family accounts were up +1.22% and $SPXU was the same. War fears are beginning to really show up in trading. WTD $SPX is down -.24% my accounts up 0.22% and $SPXU up +0.78%. I expect the ceasefire to end in 48 hours or less.

@Davidwoounbound David your current assessment of the market is spot on with mine. Seeing the price of oil generate a new daily buy signal earlier this week was my tell that conflict will begin soon. But if everyone knows this, so do the Iranians. Who fires first and at who? Better to wait.

Iran has access to roughly 500 Chinese satellites. Half meter resolution. Real time targeting data. Iran can now identify exactly what is on a US airfield and course correct missiles mid flight using China's Beidou GPS system. This is not a proxy war anymore 👇 Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

@Don7Spy I’m not sure if it really has or not. But if it was, we should be continuing to sell off and we are not.

@RonCyr9 We talked about this last night, didn’t know it will be so quick 😍

$SPXU is up over 3.00% now. Has the ceasefire ended? I had expected this for tomorrow and not today. However, oil was my tell to position myself to short the market.

Market is taking this seriously. The Israeli’s? Took the initiative?

@alexkoh Correct someone in the know. Oil yesterday acted like someone knew that the war would resume today. Don’t know if it did but noticed and built a big position again.

I consider myself a $VIX expert. But I cannot comprehend multi spikes on daily charts! Some algo or manipulation is happening. This is not normal.

@Don7Spy I’m actually pretty confident that something is moving the markets to the downside as we speak. A new country about to make a move.

@RonCyr9 We need to have winner soon, Green candles everyday looks sickening at this point

$SPX was up 1.05% today to close at 7,137.92. My family accounts were down -0.98% and $SPXU was down -2.95%. A confirmed “Daily Buy” was triggered in Oil. Will it continue to rise? WTD $SPX is up 0.16%, my accounts -0.98% and $SPXU down -0.43%. 100% invested. Did not cover.

@JackFarley96 You worry too much. The market is at all times highs. Party on. My wife has no idea what the consequences are as well. All good here.

Number of ships that left Strait of Hormuz today: ONE. Singular. This is not sustainable.

I have bought $SPXU at $43.80. I will wait to see the 10:30am oil numbers. The recent correlation between oil and the direction of $SPX is very high. My price objective is $43.92 but will remain flexible with that target today. If oil remains above $91.50 = “Buy Signal”.

Game plan for today’s trading. I’m still 100% in cash and 2.5 hours before the market opens. Futures up 0.58% and Oil up slightly. I plan to purchase $SPXU right at the open. The clock is ticking and no resolution is in place and the strait remains essentially closed.

$SPX was down -0.63% today to close at 7,064.01. My family accounts were unchanged and $SPXU was up 1.99%. I did not execute again today. A daily sell signal is far away at 6,886.17. Oil needs to go up only 1.37% to generate a new “Daily Buy Signal”. Risk off for stocks.

@nexta_tv There is no way that Iran will give this up. If I was an advisor to the government, I’d push for a quick crude bomb and do a demonstration test as quick as possible.

🚨BREAKING: Polymarket now gives 65% chance Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile this year If true — this would be a massive global shift. If not — just another round of pressure tactics before negotiations. What do you think — “Yes” or “No”? Drop your take 👇

Game plan for today’s trading. I’m still 100% in cash and waiting for the “Peace Talks” to breakdown tomorrow. Physical price of oil is pricing in a 100% chance of war and I do agree with that assessment. I’ll be placing an order later in the day to hold overnight.

@gnoble79 I appreciate your work George. A helpful post.

This is the single most important number in global markets right now: Paper oil settled at $90 on Friday. Physical oil traded at $144 two weeks ago. Let me break this down for you... Dated Brent (the benchmark for actual barrels changing hands in the real world) hit $144.42 on April 7. That's the highest physical crude price since S&P Global Platts started publishing it in 1987. Higher than 2008. Morgan Stanley's analysts said buyers are paying "an exceptional premium for secure, refinery-usable barrels available now." Meanwhile, Brent futures have been trading between $84 and $99, swinging 15% in 48 hours based on whatever Iran's foreign minister says on any given morning. The physical market is pricing a war. The paper market is pricing a peace deal. One of them is WRONG. And here's why the PHYSICAL market is right: 230 loaded oil tankers are trapped inside the Persian Gulf. ADNOC's CEO confirmed it. Strait of Hormuz traffic has dropped over 90%. The ceasefire expires Wednesday and peace talks collapsed in Pakistan over the weekend. 15 to 20 million barrels per day normally move through Hormuz. The only bypass - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's ADCOP - together handle roughly 9 million. You cannot close a gap that large with infrastructure that doesn't exist. But here's what REALLY caught my attention... Containers are flowing. Oil is not. Maersk published five operational updates in two weeks building an entirely new shipping map. Containers move from the UAE to Khor Fakkan, get trucked through Oman to Sohar and Salalah, shipped to Jeddah, and reconnected to global routes. Saudi Arabia recorded 94,000 outbound trucks to Gulf land borders in 3 weeks. India's Jawaharlal Nehru Port saw container arrivals surge over 700% from February. 34,000 ships rerouted in 4 weeks. Anything that fits on a truck has already found a workaround. But crude oil has no workaround. You cannot load 15 million barrels per day onto trucks. There is no land bridge for hydrocarbons. The pipelines are maxed. The tankers are parked. And it doesn't stop at oil: QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG contracts with China, Italy, Belgium, and South Korea after Iranian missiles hit the Ras Laffan complex in March. They've extended it through mid-June. Japan (sourcing 70% of its Middle East crude through Hormuz) is releasing strategic reserves. Maersk builds a new map in two weeks. QatarEnergy calls its lawyers. That's two completely different wars being fought at the same time - one the global supply chain has already solved, and one it cannot. And paper oil prices are trading like this distinction doesn't exist. The EIA's base case has Brent peaking at $115 this quarter - assuming the conflict ends in April. Iran's parliament is now drafting a permanent law banning ships from "hostile" nations and imposing tolls on everyone else. Energy stocks remain the most asymmetric trade in this market. When paper catches up to physical (and 45 years of experience tells me it always does) the repricing will be VIOLENT.

$SPX was down -0.33% today to close at 7,102.54. My family accounts were unchanged and $SPXU was up 0.96%. I did not execute of the set up today after being hit with a non-stop 13 day rally against me. Why am I getting early February 2020 vibes? I see coming damage yet ATH’s?

Game plan for Monday. I will not be purchasing $SPXU at the open. Futures have been heading up all morning and oil initially rallied but is softening. I’ll watch for the proper set up.

But President Trump said the war is over. Remember that? He did say that everyday for the last 800 points.

@Don7Spy Yes agreed. Let’s make it happen.

@RonCyr9 Yes 🙌, I have done poorly too on $NQ this week. But this shall pass and we back on track soon after 💪

$SPX was up 4.54% for the week to close at 7,7126.06. My family accounts were down -9.27% and $SPXU was down -12.40%. Daily chart has a target of 7,250 before we should correct again. Fanatical V shaped recover based on the collapse of the risk premium in oil, and Hormuz “