@JEChalmers You fcukwit - you're decreasing the price of a commodity that is in short supply ... you are genuine deadshit
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RonaldDale
1.8K posts
Labor’s fuel tax cut has kicked in. We’re helping motorists with the cost of living at the petrol pump.
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China is now building wind turbines so large that a single one, off-shore, can power 55,000 homes - emissions-free.
Sounds like a lot better solution to me, Lee.
Leeroy@leeroysmusical
@Peter_Fitz I was told you don’t quit a job until you have a better job lined up. That is why we need to drill and dig until we have a better solution that works
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Remember when the Liberals told us EVs were going to “ruin the weekend”?
A friend of mine just posted on a chat that filling up 💸 💸 her tiny petrol car last night ruined her weekend 🥺
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@mikealfred Fast money have learnt their lessons re Asian Monday !
Many that I speak to assume Trumps not serious and will grant Iran an extension tomorrow ... which is not an unreasonable assumption !
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BREAKING: Trump says “you will find out what's gonna happen” regarding his 48 hour Iran ultimatum that ends tomorrow night.
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@mikealfred Nope - I didn’t … and I didn’t see the plunge coming post liberation day and I didn’t buy that ensuing plunge … just saying …
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@RonaldDale69 Uh huh. You and everyone else said the exact same thing last year in March/April too.
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Just a few more Trump Truth Social posts before the market becomes completely apathetic. We’ve seen this pattern before. At some point he will say we are doing something truly insane and the market will actually go up. It’s a process.
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@_warrenhogan 2) Rather the RBA will wait and see how all sectors of the economy recat to what we are experiencing. If things calm down then further rate hikes can be delievered in H2 ... the release valve initially will be the $A ... which will be back into the mid 60's fast ...
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We are already starting to see retailers across a range of segments talk of price hikes in the days ahead. Food is immediately exposed to transportation costs. The March monthly CPI could be pretty big and the June Quarter CPI will be big. Markets around the world are interpreting this as an inflationary shock. Markets in Australia are starting to eye off a 5% cash rate over the year ahead. Six months ago the average economist in Australia thought the cash rate was going to 3%. That’s a big reality check for debt holders. If this continues expect the yield curve to flatten as the prospects of a major economic downturn materialise. Asset markets holding up remarkably well so far.
Alex Joiner 🇦🇺@IFM_Economist
History in the making...
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@_warrenhogan 1) There is no chance the RBA hike rates while this is sort of crisis is transpiring. The idea of raising Mortgage Rates while there are food shortages is insane and will send the economy into the abyss - ensuring Consumer Demand induced inflation is yesterdays news !!
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@_warrenhogan Well done mate - you have been all over this … and accurately so … 👍
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Good monetary policy. RBA taking out inflation insurance. If the energy situation threatens our economy they can always cut rates.
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@FOXFOOTY What a load of shit … please give me odds that he doesn’t sign with the Pies !
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'UNWILLING TO SIGN' 👀
Victorian clubs are joining the queue for Nick Daicos, with revelations he doesn't want to sign the long-term deal the Pies are willing to offer.
The superstar was "unhappy" at times last year, for both on-field and off-field reasons, according to the report.
DETAILS >> bit.ly/4lmqDNP
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@FootyonNine When they were handing ‘out trams & trains’ Dermie must have been lost … geez he talks some dribble … utter dribble
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"It fractures the club."
Eddie McGuire on why he understands Carlton's decision on Sam Docherty, while defending the ex-skipper's comments as well as Dan Gorringe's role in airing them.
#9FootyClassified | Watch on 9 & 9Now 🖥️
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@JonathanLittle V HJ range you're dead ~60% (has to get through the CO, BB, SB - dynamics unknown but he may be a little tighter than otherwise given bubble).
Ur remaining $10k is worth 66% of 50k plus 10k of any open so u are getting BETTER odd at 4.5/1 waiting for a hand in the SB = FOLD
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Weird spot: 25 remain, 23 get in the money. Next shortest stack is 250k. It is 15k/25k with 25k bb ante, HJ raises to 50k, I call bb 6s5c with 60k total (10k behind). QhQdJd. I check, he pushes 10k. Pot odds are nice.
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Last Thursday. Today I suggest the chance of a rate hike on 17th March is now 75%, assuming US defence secretary Hegseth assessment of their operations in Iran is accurate (this won’t be over quickly). Why would you wait until a week before the Federal Budget to hike rates when the case is beyond compelling now. And the Treasurer can blame the rate hike on the orange man dropping bombs. Win win for everyone ( except the truth), but at this stage of game, any action that reduces the prospect of an embedded inflation problem in our economy should be applauded. To repeat. Headline CPI heading towards 5% on a supply disruption and avoiding an embarrassing pre Budget rate hike seems compelling. GDP tomorrow will be miles above RBA forecasts at around 2.5% annual or higher. Government spending much higher than thought. The laundry list of reasons to move immediately is growing by the hour. And. Do not underestimate the political appeal of blaming the hike on Trump’s war machine. Maybe the odds are 90%
Warren Hogan@_warrenhogan
Governor Bullocks fireside chat at University of Melbourne suggests RBA in fine tuning mode. Although caught by surprise by the private sector recovery of the last six months and the speed with which inflation has jumped back above their band, she is doesn’t appear concerned that inflation will get away from them. They can afford to be patient is my sense of her position. I disagree. Moreover, the case to get rates back to where they were in early 2024 (4.35%) is compelling. In my view, only once rates are at this level is there any room for patience. Not sure she ruled out a March hike, that remains a market assessment. But it does beg the question: “If the RBA board do not hike in March after yesterday’s inflation result, and the previous week’s unemployment result, is there any point to meeting every six weeks?” They might as well just have 4 meetings a year and save the time and money. The key outcome in yesterday’s inflation report was strong housing inflation, which is inconsistent, according to their own analysis, with the idea that this inflation increase is temporary. And it is housing inflation that is strongly correlated with core inflation. I put a March hike at 50% probability, compared to the market pricing of 15%, given that the governor is unlikely to have been informed of this particular detail on the CPI result when she spoke in the house of doves at Melbourne University last night.
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@_warrenhogan I suggest that Australian Interest Rate 'participants' add @_warrenhogan to alerts ... this comment posted last Thursday last (which is unarguably correct) appears to have struck a nerve !!
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Governor Bullocks fireside chat at University of Melbourne suggests RBA in fine tuning mode. Although caught by surprise by the private sector recovery of the last six months and the speed with which inflation has jumped back above their band, she is doesn’t appear concerned that inflation will get away from them. They can afford to be patient is my sense of her position. I disagree. Moreover, the case to get rates back to where they were in early 2024 (4.35%) is compelling. In my view, only once rates are at this level is there any room for patience. Not sure she ruled out a March hike, that remains a market assessment. But it does beg the question: “If the RBA board do not hike in March after yesterday’s inflation result, and the previous week’s unemployment result, is there any point to meeting every six weeks?” They might as well just have 4 meetings a year and save the time and money. The key outcome in yesterday’s inflation report was strong housing inflation, which is inconsistent, according to their own analysis, with the idea that this inflation increase is temporary. And it is housing inflation that is strongly correlated with core inflation. I put a March hike at 50% probability, compared to the market pricing of 15%, given that the governor is unlikely to have been informed of this particular detail on the CPI result when she spoke in the house of doves at Melbourne University last night.
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@JEChalmers @abcnews Spend some MORE MONEY Jim ...
theaustralian.com.au/nation/albanes…
You just DGAF do you ?!
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@_warrenhogan 3) Actually - maybe I am wrong ...
Maybe they DO know what they are doing?! Some nice inflation bracket creep so they can buy more people off with “free” handouts …. maybe this is a strategy!
They just DGAF … they genuinely do not give a flying ...
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The other important revelation from Governor Bullock during last nights ‘fireside’ chat was the communications objective. At the press conferences she is not speaking to markets and economists, she is attempting to reach out to older Australians with little understanding of the economy. Markets need to factor that in. How? I don’t know. But could explain some of the unusual pricing in markets including the massive March -May skew at present.
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