Rudabeh Shahid

A must-read for anyone thinking about the implications of the BJP’s victory in West Bengal for Bangladesh.

Walking the path of religious polarisation and leveraging underlying anti-incumbency, Indian PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party sweeps key state of West Bengal. Read here aje.news/ol8eky

India’s Kerala, which gave the world its first democratically elected communist government, has voted the left out, with no Indian state now ruled by the left. aje.news/4rkzfo

Modi's BJP conquers Bengal, one of India's toughest political frontiers bbc.in/4urC5v2

Contrary to expectations, Muslims in West Bengal haven't consolidated behind the TMC, despite SIR. Trends in the 10 seats with the highest %ge of Muslims shows there's been a huge swing against TMC. Left & Cong gained the most, while a good chunk has gone to others.

TMC cannot blame SIR if it loses Bengal Here's why: In 2021, TMC+ got 2.90 cr out of 6.03 cr votes polled, giving it a 48% vote share. If its vote-share had remained the same and so had the turnout percentage, normal population growth should have taken its votes to 3.04 cr. Now, assume that 75% of the 27 lakh disenfranchised by SIR were TMC voters, that would be ~20 lakh votes lost due to SIR. If the turnout had remained the same, TMC+ would have gone down to 2.84 cr this time. But the absolute turnout actually increased by ~30 lakh. If TMC had got even 40% of the votes here, it would have got 12 lakh additional votes. The net impact would have been a loss of 8 lakh votes, taking its final tally to 2.96 cr. Now let's look at BJP+ In 2021, it could 2.3 cr votes, or 38% vote share. If everything had remained the same, population growth would have taken it to 2.41 cr this time. Now, let us assume that 8-10% of the disenfranchised were BJP voters. So BJP+ would have lost ~2.5 lakh votes due to SIR. Let us also assume that 55% of the additional 30 lakh turnout went to BJP, giving it an extra 16.5 lakh votes. The net impact (gains from higher turnout minus the losses due to SIR) would have been an additional 14 lakh votes. This would have taken the BJP to 2.44 cr votes in 2026, keeping in mind (1) higher population (2) higher turnout and (3) SIR deletions. This is still a 52 lakh vote advantage to TMC+ Even if I assume the SIR impact to be bigger, TMC+ would still have been ahead by at least 40 lakh votes. This would only be possible if BJP+ wins Bengal with a lower vote-share. Otherwise, SIR cannot explain the current trend (at 11:00 AM)

Bangladesh after 1.5 years of instability: “Let’s just stick to the least messy option.” Meanwhile in West Bengal: “Need poriborton! Let’s experiment with the boldest option.”

Seems it’s an early saffron wave in #WestBengalElection… Will the last eastern citadel hold on?

Why did India delete 10% of the electorate, including Muslims and minorities, weeks before the election got underway in the state of West Bengal? s.nikkei.com/3QzeM3O

Former Minister and ex-TMC MP Dinesh Trivedi appointed High Commissioner to Bangladesh, announces MEA. Here is a profile by @nistula of a rare political appointee to a neighbouring country. #mustread thehindu.com/news/national/…

Interesting national media change from last bengal election. In 2021, most Delhi reporters, godi and non godi, who flew down to Bengal, predicted a BJP win on the basis of rural Hindutva mobilisation. The so-called subaltern Hindutva thesis. This time it seems the number of reporters sticking their neck out for BJP are largely limited to godis. And it seems even they are predicting on the basis of EC + CRPF + SIR. Not the BJP or its ideology per se.

TDF Live Webinar, ‘Bangladesh: A new political chapter?’ Tuesday April 28th, 2026 at 14:00 to 15:00 UK time (BST) @RudabehS @Chietigj @AnasuaBasu_RC @saqlain_rizzve @HumphreyHawk @BarryGardiner #Bangladesh youtube.com/watch?v=gFw_gu…

Ah yes, the timeless doctrine of “log kya kahenge”—why bother fixing your own house when the real priority is obsessing over what the neighbor is up to next door? 🥸

@IndicSocietee That’s what it seems— but gathering opinions from all sides particularly in the context of the SIR and reportedly relatively less violence

@RudabehS NOT a chance !

Will Didi make it? Will the last citadel fall? #WestBengalPolls2026

West Bengal Assembly Election 2026: Check date and time for voting, poll results, and other details #Echobox=1777107642" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">indianexpress.com/article/cities…

High-stakes West Bengal election begins in India amid voter roll row bbc.in/4dY5rfA

Millions in West Bengal are voting in a tight state election, but more than 9 million names have been deleted from the voter list in a rushed revision that disproportionately affects Muslims in key districts.

NEW BRIEFING | Bangladesh’s New Government Gets Down to Business The country’s new government will need to pursue rapid reform if it is to keep public support. Job one is reinvigorating the economy. crisisgroup.org/brf/asia-pacif…

Rights groups warn over 9 million people in India’s West Bengal have been stripped of voting rights. The BJP-led government calls it a “revision,” but critics say Muslims and minorities are disproportionately targeted. Al Jazeera’s Minelle Fernandez reports.