Filip Rudnik

This is how it looks like

✂️ Oil Boom Won’t Shield Russia From Billion-Dollar Spending Cuts Despite the unexpected windfall of a Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher, the Russian government has begun pressing ahead with sweeping spending cuts worth billions of dollars. “Spending cuts will kill the last bit of economic growth,” a senior official at the Ministry of Economic Development told The Bell. According to Vedomosti, at the start of the year Russia’s Finance Ministry notified all ministries of a 10% across-the-board reduction in spending. Bloomberg estimates the largest possible cut would amount to around 2 trillion rubles ($25 billion), or 0.8% of GDP — though The Bell’s own calculations suggest a more likely range of 0.5–1 trillion rubles ($6–12 billion). So-called “unprotected” budget lines will be first in line for cuts: national projects, infrastructure investment and road construction. Although the Finance Ministry wields considerable authority, sequestration is far from inevitable and is already facing pushback. “The plan is not to cut what is inflated, but what is left — and that’s just crumbs,” said one official at the Ministry of Economic Development. “This year, there is not much room. A transition period could be considered going forward,” a government official agreed. The cuts stem from structural long-term shortfalls. The budget rests on implausibly optimistic assumptions — oil at $59 a barrel, a rate of 92.2 rubles to the dollar — and authorities are banking on $15 billion from a VAT hike that looks increasingly unlikely to materialise amid slowing growth. ➡️ For the first three years of the war, the budget ran fat. Now, with belts tightening and the war still ongoing, civilian spending is the only lever left to pull — even as it has already been squeezed to the bone.

I znów dobra wiadomość dla Rosji! USA podjęło decyzję o kolejnym (czasowym) wyłączeniu z sankcji naftowych. Wyłączenie dotyczy możliwości dostaw i sprzedaży ropy i produktów naftowych z Rosji, które znajdują się/zostaną załadowane na tankowce do 12 marca br.

O rozmiękczaniu sankcji na Rosję przez administrację Trumpa słów kilka. Różnic pomiędzy 2022 r. a obecnym kryzysem jest wiele - i wiele wskazuje na to, że dzisiejszy może być o wiele bardziej brzemienny w skutki dla rynku ropy niż ten sprzed czterech lat. O tym piszą inni. 1/