Ryan Coetzee

If creating jobs really was the most importent thing in SA, what government would do is work backwards from the question, “What needs to happen to make it relatively less risky for an investor to make a return on their investment”? That investor might be a micro player or a massive player, domestic or international, but either way, they won’t spend a cent on starting or growing a business if they don’t think they will make a profit by so doing. But creating jobs isn’t really the most important thing, is it? How we do know? Well, because the government doesn’t ask that question, or answer it. Sure, growth and jobs are in the “medium term development plan”, but that’s just a spreadsheet. Spreadsheets don’t change the world. Actions do.

@mix_upchick Oh, well, what do I know about polling? Also, are you able to read for meaning or are you just another anonymous fool desperate for attention on social media?

@RyanCoetzee Akward... challenging polling with vibes. All valid comments, but polling results reflect current situation not future potential situation.

This analysis is complete and utter nonsense - it’s what happens when people with no experience of politics at all play at being “analysts”. No one, on becoming leader, has high name recognition. (GHL’s is remarkably high, in fact, undoubtedly because he has done so well in Cape Town.) But this changes fast for 3 reasons: (1) the new leader gets a massive free media boost the moment he gets elected, (2) the party spends significant amounts on promoting the new leader and (c) - most important of all - nothing drives name recognition like an election campaign when tens of millions are spent on comms with his face and his voice delivering the core message. This is exactly what happened with every leader the DA has had since Tony Leon, and doubtless before that too, although that was before my time.

Wonderful and fascinating. It’s incredible how rapidly not just accents but also the rhythm of a language changes. I can’t say I read Brideshead or Vile Bodies or any of the others with the right accents or way of speaking in my head.

@PieterDuToit “The Politics Desk” 🤷‍♂️

@RyanCoetzee Who wrote it?

@ChristianEedes @ChezBruce You mean SA still trying to prove it has the quality to be ranked among the best in the world and screw caps are off-brand in that endeavor? (They send a “cheap and cheerful” signal, not a “high-end quality” signal, from a brand point of view.)

@RyanCoetzee @ChezBruce It's complicated. Part of the explanation is that South Africa industry still working hard at being aspirational and can't afford New World pragmatism.

The 2019 whites are so good I just had to find a few more. Decent haul, this.

The BBBEE review is a government review. The government is run by a Cabinet. The Cabinet is made up of a number of parties. Yesterday, @CyrilRamaphosa said he always seeks consensus. Let’s see what happens.

Beyond outrageous that the US is actively seeking to prop up Orbán. Let’s just hope the people of Hungary tell Putin, Trump and Orbán himself where to get off.

@JohannBiermann1 That’s a good time! Under 5m a km is proper.

Goal this morning was to get my first sub 24min on my 5km time. Perfect morning for it, nice and cool! Finished with 23m33, super happy with that! Absolutely a push run🏃‍♂️

@ChezBruce I don’t know, but @ChristianEedes will probably let know. Let’s ask him.

@RyanCoetzee Interesting why so few SA wines are under screw cap. All the rage in Aus and NZ. Why not the case in SA?

@deondelange You’ve moved?

@RyanCoetzee Damn. So jealous. Wish I could get some of these in Jakarta without going bankrupt. 😐

@jameswhile @thepaulwilliams Ha, yes I got that!

@RyanCoetzee @thepaulwilliams *jol !

Wonderful piece. You would enjoy it, @thepaulwilliams - Gerber was special. Would have adapted to the structure of the modern game easily enough, and god help the defense in broken play. The slightly more recent player he reminds me of is actually Christian Cullen.

Well, look on the bright side folks - we’re part of an exclusive 5%! (But never make the mistake of thinking this place is the real world.)

This is the best and most important speech I have ever heard from @CyrilRamaphosa. There is too much in it to respond fully on X, but here are a few thoughts. 1. It provides a basis for constructive deliberation in the GNU on growth and jobs, as well as on transformation. 2. The manner in which the president put the government together and the way in which it operates makes constructive deliberation very difficult - and this is by design. The ANC in the GNU goes out of its way NOT to have open discussion with the DA or other parties on a wide range of critical policy issues. It seeks control, not collaboration. 3. Opponents of BEE and EE would do well to listen carefully to the argument the president made about, specifically, ownership and senior-level jobs. He feels very keenly the injustice and humiliation of exclusion from ownership and senior jobs under apartheid and it is *the* core driver of the ANC’s approach to BEE and EE. 4. It is not enough to simply say race-based legislation and regulation is wrong. It is also not enough to say only mass unemployment matters. Opponents of BEE and EE need to have a coherent, realistic answer to the equation: “How do we redress the injustice of the past?” - specifically about ownership and senior jobs. 5. But equally, the ANC needs to be honest about the failures and costs of BEE and EE to date. Because they have been significant. 6. While the president made a strong case for OV, he didn’t get into many of the other obstacles to growth, from over-regulation to tariff policy to a more radical reprioritisation of public spending, and much besides. 7. But beyond the absence of these issues, he also failed to address the speed at which reform is taking place. Indeed to made a case for going slowly but it was a spurious one. The real reasons everything in government takes so long is (a) internal contestation in the ANC and its alliance, and (b) the abysmal work culture and lack of productivity in the public sector. 8. He also never mentioned a key underlying constraint to everything from a “capable state” to better health and education outcomes: the thoroughgoing lack of accountability that characterizes the public sector. I ask again, how many principals have been fired for being bad at their jobs? 9. But the speech was disarmingly honest about many of the ANC’s failures and it behoves other parties to be equally honest about their own. Then perhaps a collaborative and constructive conversation becomes possible. But that would require a new approach by the ANC and the president inside the GNU in particular. Let’s see if that can happen.

@Enghumbhini @DumaGqubule Well it’s possible to understand what it’s like to run a business without having done so, but then one must make the effort to do so. I see no evidence of that here.

@RyanCoetzee @DumaGqubule Are you saying the fellows at the WB and IMF ever ran actual business? Stiglitz? Many government advisers in the US or UK never ran a business. That’s ad hominem I would say

I’m not an economist, but have always struggled with understanding how can can build roads, dams, schools, health facilities, police stations, ensure adequate levels of staffing in health, police and education while maintains austerity measures. Maybe @DumaGqubule can help me

@DumaGqubule @Enghumbhini Private investors make a calculation about return on a risk-adjusted basis. GFC formation in SA is low because they look at our governance, regulatory environment and quality of infrastructure and decide there are better options. Have you ever run an actual business?

@RyanCoetzee @Enghumbhini what private sector success? gross fixed capital formation is 14% of gdp one of the lowest in the world. private investment follows GDP growth. it does not kickstart it. why would anyone invest in economy that is heading for two decades of average living standards?

Well, I’m sure there’s no convincing you, but do try not to set up straw men when making a case. I have not suggested shrinking expenditure (although I would reprioritise it.) I would also note that you seem to have nothing to say about creating an environment that supports private sector investment and success. Just weird to think the beginning and end of economic policy should be government-funded stimulus.

@Enghumbhini @RyanCoetzee yes that is basic maths you cant cut or shrink your way to GDP growth

@Enghumbhini @DumaGqubule Yes, but when you were Premier the economy wasn’t shrinking on a per-capita basis. It has been doing that now for 15 years - and that means bigger class sizes, less infrastructure, etc. Any by the way, R450 billion bailing out companies run by the state didn’t help.

@RyanCoetzee @DumaGqubule Check your initial response. Wages of senior management and public officials are higher, wage gap huge. No doubt there is corruption, but budget has been reduced. When I was Premier, GP class sizes were less than 40. Even WC, check sizes and LSM, been reducing. It’s just margins