Ryan Haiss, CFP®

Have to laugh when people say they are expecting “high single digit returns” from the stock market. As if 8% to 10% is some normal outcome. It is not. The S&P 500 has finished in that range just one time in nearly 100 years. Average returns look nice on paper. Actual returns are almost never average. That is what makes investing so hard.

I agree in general, but in places with no supply, like Long Island, the spreadsheet is only part of the equation. If you’re financially sound, have the down payment, and need the space, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and treat the house as a place to live first, investment second.

Renting is still cheaper than buying in every major U.S. City. Historically, renting vs buying is about balanced - with the only difference being the opportunity cost of a 5-25% down payment. Until we reach an equilibrium, it’s hard to justify buying a home in 2026…UNLESS: 1. You get a fantastic deal (I’m seeing places now sell -20%+ off list price in Las Vegas) 2. You absolutely love the home and don’t care if you overpay 3. You plan to hold it 10+ years 4. You’re rich AF and pay a premium to not have a landlord. Besides that, short term - renting still seems to be superior option while you stack cash and wait for the right opportunity / perfect house.

One thing I’ve learned: Good investing and good decision-making usually look boring in real time. Most people want: → Instant certainty → Constant action → Dramatic predictions → Perfect timing What actually tends to work better: → Patience → Repeatable process → Emotional control → Knowing what not to do The internet rewards excitement. Results usually reward discipline. That tension explains a lot of bad decisions.

@TheMattViera Whole life (beside college in MD)

@RyanHaiss I can only imagine. How long have you lived in Long Island for?

For everyone asking, “Where are teachers making $100k+?” One place teachers make $100k+ is New York City.

@PeterRex @USCnDodgerBlue One of the biggest mistakes I see is people investing short-term money in long-term assets. Over and over again....

@USCnDodgerBlue @RyanHaiss I agree but there are plenty of people who invest for that exact reason and are then confused why it doesn’t usakly work out.

Have to laugh when people say they are expecting “high single digit returns” from the stock market. As if 8% to 10% is some normal outcome. It is not. The S&P 500 has finished in that range just one time in nearly 100 years. Average returns look nice on paper. Actual returns are almost never average. That is what makes investing so hard.

@DadisFIRE So important

🔥 Building an emergency fund is a financial skill that often feels tedious, until life proves how essential it is. Unfortunately, this is a reality for the majority, as 62% of Americans reported they’re behind on emerge... f.mtr.cool/pnojeuvqsg

@FranWalsh73 Great thread as always! A lot of these decisions become personal, but great to know the math for perspective

Your mortgage rate is the key variable in this decision. Below ~5%: investing the difference may win on paper. Above ~6%: paying it off starts to compete. Above ~7%: the math often favors paying it off. Here's the full framework ↓

@MarketPalmer_ Everyone should know the benefits of compound investing.

If schools are teaching us: – Cursive – Calculus – Bunsen burners – How to dissect a frog They should be teaching personal finance as well.

@finwellguy So true

The best advisors often prevent mistakes rather than chase breakthroughs. Avoiding a few major financial errors can change long term outcomes.

@zachmelloh26 Great thread!

Most parents think their kids can stretch an inherited IRA over their lifetime. Truth: for most heirs, that strategy ended with the SECURE Act. Here’s how inherited IRA rules actually work:

@Greiser Exactly!

@RyanHaiss Love this chart, Ryan. It shows investing rewards patience, not prediction. The average return is real over decades. But you only capture it if you stay invested through the 26 years where the market lost money or finished well below expectations. Most people don't.

@RomanPuglise Nice thread!

If you earn $400k+ and have seven figures in company equity... You’re probably focused on the wrong thing. It’s not just about taxes. It’s about how much of your life is riding on one company. Here’s how we think about it👇

@cliffcornell_ Absolutely. If anything close to that were ever enacted, it would be a huge shift for New York residents and would likely make estate planning a much more urgent conversation for A LOT more families

A proposed NY estate tax exemption reduction from $7.35M to $750,000 with the top estate tax rate reaching 50% rather than 16% would be a significant change. Of course, this is just a proposal. But I can't help myself from thinking of the potential planning implications.

@Greiser Great reminder

401(k) vesting schedules matter. Leave before fully vested: • Forfeit unvested match • Often $10K-$20K+ • Strategic timing = huge difference Check before changing jobs.

@Invested_In_You Love a well time tax "gain" harvest!

There's a 0% federal capital gains tax rate. It's not a loophole. It's sitting in the tax code, available to millions of people every single year. Most Americans have no idea it exists. Here's how it works:

Most people think financial planning is about managing money. Sometimes, it is about helping a family navigate the unthinkable. When a spouse passes away unexpectedly, the surviving family may be faced with major decisions around Social Security, RMDs, insurance proceeds, pension choices, taxes, estate settlement, account changes, and cash flow...all while grieving. That is why financial planning is about more than money. It is about helping people make thoughtful decisions during moments when life feels overwhelming. The value of a financial planner is not always measured in returns. Sometimes, it is measured in clarity, steadiness, and guidance when it matters most.

@DadisFIRE Appreciate it 🙌🏼

@RyanHaiss Excellent post! So important to keep reality in context.

@PeterRex Completely agree

Yeah the average is kind of a fiction when you look at it this way. Most years you’re either doing much better or much worse than the “expected” return. Makes you think twice about how you plan around it, especially if you need liquidity in a specific year. If it was easy, everyone would be millionaires from the market.

@TPaintjob Annualized over time yes…how it’s worked out annually, no.

@RyanHaiss They should be laughing at you because the probability weighted outcome is precisely what expected return means.

@EAndkhoy Blackrock Student of the Market

@RyanHaiss nice visual!