Martin Rodgers, CFA

Just started getting back into exercising and then the house got hit with the flu... New born sleep schedule is rough but adding a sick toddler to the mix is next level!

@JohannBiermann1 Legend! Well done

Tough morning! - big climbs - inconsistent track - single tracks had so much leaves it felt like you're running in sand - hot and no wind But - privileged to able-bodied to do this - there were 80 other runners, whenever you pass each other, you exchange a smile and the F word 😂 - epic views of the farm and Table Mountain - running through Stellenbosch vineyards and parts of the forest is unrivaled Trails are tough, but get in there! 🏃‍♂️

@JohannBiermann1 Trying to get back in shape slowly after having the little one. Dankie, meneer!

@SAValueInvestor Getting in the distance!

Tough one to get up for but we did it. Enjoy your Sunday, everyone!

We keep going.

Not even the cats were out this morning. Have a good day, everyone!

Tweet of the day:

SA Gold Producers - MTD total return (since 27 Feb 2026): DRDGOLD -21% Gold Fields -23% Pan African Resources -23% AngloGold Ashanti -25% Harmony Gold -34% Broad-based selloff across the sector. Harmony taking the heaviest beating - down a third in under a month.

SA Gold Producers - Total returns since 31 Dec 2024: 1. Pan African Resources +277% 2. AngloGold Ashanti +272% 3. Gold Fields +197% 4. DRDGOLD +186% 5. Harmony Gold +59% End of Feb was a good time to decrease exposure... in hindsight.

Just the cats and me this morning.

I asked Claude (Opus 4.6 Extended) to give the Top Value Picks across each GICS sector on the JSE. Here is the list of 9 shares it says is the highest-conviction value opportunities based on a simple value screener. Interesting list but definitely requires additional analysis.

Sun International $JSESUI - Analyst Snapshot Consensus Rating: 4.33 (66.7% Buy | 33.3% Hold | 0% Sell) Last Price: R40.51 12M Target: R53.00 Implied Upside: ~30.8% Prescient Securities downgraded to Neutral today (TP R45.00), while Avior and Nedbank remain bullish at Outperform/Overweight with targets of R61.00 and R65.00 respectively. LTM Return: +10.1%

SPAR $JSESPP implementing voluntary severance programme – part of a broader cost reset to match current trading conditions. Retailers and retail services unaffected. This is a head office/group-level restructure to support future growth.

Woolworths $JSEWHL to acquire 100% of in2food Holdings Cash-funded from existing resources and facilities. Who is in2food? - SA-based supplier of premium private label products across freshly prepared convenience food, fresh produce, and long-life categories, as well as several ambient and bakery products - Revenue: R5bn+ per annum - 8 world-class manufacturing facilities - Produces 3.2 million+ packs per week - Key supplier to Woolworths Foods for 30+ years - Also serves food service, wholesale and export channels Sellers include the founders and Old Mutual Private Equity. in2food's leadership team stays on to run it as a standalone business within Woolworths. Transaction subject to competition authority approval.

Old Mutual FY2025: Ops up +13%, adj. earnings +24%, but missed consensus across the board. Key figures: • Results from ops: R9.82bn (+13% y/y) vs est. R9.95bn • Adj. headline earnings: R8.26bn (+24% y/y) vs est. R8.31bn • IFRS profit: R8.41bn (+9.6% y/y) • DPS: 93c (+8% y/y) vs est. 97c • Final div: 56c vs est. 60c • RONAV: 15.2% (up from 12.7%) • Solvency ratio: 162% (down from 182%) • FUM: R1.64 trillion (+13%) Value of new business collapsed -52% to R850m. VNB margin fell to 1.2% (from 2.5%) on weaker persistency assumptions. Well below target. Positive highlights: • Old Mutual Insure underwriting margin up to 6.8% • R450m in cost savings already delivered; R2.5bn target for 2026 • R3bn share buyback underway (R0.7bn done) • Discretionary capital nearly doubled to R6.1bn • OM Bank tracking well ahead of Q2 launch Analyst sentiment: Consensus rating 2.56 – 33% buys, 56% sells 12M target: 1573c vs last price 1461c (+7.7%) UBS most bullish at 1920c | Citi most bearish at 1243c

Couple of sell-side analyst updates this morning: - Super Group $JSESPG raised to Overweight at ABSA Securities; PT R21.10 (32% upside) - Gold Fields $JSEGFI raised to Overweight at ABSA Securities; PT R1,045 (34% upside) - OUTsurance $JSEOUT raised to Buy at Investec; PT R84 (16% upside) - Clicks $JSECLS raised to Buy at Citi; PT R411 (41% upside) - TFG $JSETFG cut to Sell at Citi; PT R71 (3% downside).

MTN Group FY2025 Results • HEPS +1,058% to 1,274 cps - massive turnaround • Service revenue +22.7% in CC to R218.5bn • EBITDA margin up 5.4pp to 44.5% (CC) • Net debt/EBITDA down to just 0.3x • Dividend +45% to 500 cps • 307.2m customers (+5.6%) • Data revenue +36.4% | Fintech revenue +23.2% • R3.6bn in efficiency savings IHS acquisition announced. Fintech separation progressing in Ghana & Uganda. Ambition 2030 strategy pivots to three platforms. CMD ~June 2026.

Sun International FY2025: HEPS +38.7% | Sunbet flying at +79.8% H2 income growth | Casino market share up to 46% despite market decline | Special dividend of 100 cps on top of 252 cps final | Net debt/EBITDA a comfortable 1.5x New CEO Bengtsson unveiling 5-year value creation plan at Capital Markets Day today. 2026 trading off to a good start. Share price up 7.4% on the open.

US natural gas jumped nearly 30% on Monday given increase in heating demand thanks to freezing weather sweeping across most of the US. Feb contracts up more than 117% in 5 days, biggest gain going back to 1990. Interesting!