Onesphore Sematumba

NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Deadly escalation by Ugandan ADF rebels in eastern DRC @SEMATUMBA on the ADF rebel group pressing its advantage in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo while Kinshasa focuses on the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgency. crisisgroup.org/africa/democra…

I told the UNSC the situation is dire with an internal political crisis and the Sudan war leaving S Sudan on edge. I urged regional powers to do more to lean on Juba and said the world bears a ‘collective responsibility’ to help forge a better future for its youngest state.

"Between the signing of an agreement and the achievement of peace, the road can be long, and it will be long in this case." Colleague @SEMATUMBA speaks to @BBCWorld about the #DRCongo-#Rwanda peace deal and the (many) remaining challenges ahead. bbc.com/news/articles/…

The commentary builds on the insights drawn from a conference on the #DRC, co-organised with @EUSR_GL & his team with brilliant speakers: @KristofTiteca @judithverweijen @ErikKennes @SEMATUMBA #CENCO-ECC @kvlassen ➡️You can find their analyses on the @EgmontInstitute website!

Joint Statement on Peace Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of Rwanda, Mediated by the United States and Observed by the State of Qatar state.gov/releases/offic…

Dear Mr. @georgesoros Congratulations from @CrisisGroup A well deserved award to an international treasure who has dedicated his life in the pursuit of an essential cause - open society - worldwide. In short, freedom. Proud to make common cause with @OpenSociety 💫

Les nouveaux maîtres des lieux devraient sortir de leur coin pour mettre fin à ce chaos, dont ils sont fondamentalement la cause, sans attendre que la loi de la jungle s’installe !

Bukavu : Les efforts de l’archevêque Mgr Maroy et de la société civile pour épargner la ville des destructions par les bombes avaient pourtant réussi. Et voilà que nous sommes capables d’infliger à notre ville de telles destructions , sans bombes!

C’est l’économie locale que vous mettez par terre. Les autres vous observent et rient! Mais ça ne fait pas rire!

Ce que les Bukaviens sont en train de faire à leur propre ville est d’une méchante stupidité. Alors que Bukavu avait échappé aux combats, ce sont ses propres habitants qui la détruisent brique par brique, tôle par tôle ! C’est très lamentable !

For the full set of entries in our briefing, read the full version, available below. crisisgroup.org/africa/african…

Instead, African leaders should agree on a narrower format, potentially a troika including representatives from both blocs. The new AU chair should encourage this effort, offer to host discussions and help implement any future deal with AU diplomatic support.

While the initiative to hold a joint EAC-SADC summit to discuss the situation has merit -- if only to try and bridge divides -- that format, given the large number of countries involved, would be too unwieldy to lead efforts at resolution in the longer run.

Given the stakes, it is vital that African leaders patch up their differences, or at the very least, tone down their rhetoric to avert a wider war. And they must prioritise pulling the warring parties back to the negotiating table.

Neighbouring Burundi has sent in thousands of troops to back the DRC, alongside Tanzanian, Malawian and South African forces.

This sparked a furious reaction from Kagame. Leaders of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) like their East African counterparts, called for an immediate ceasefire and urged all those involved in the conflict – states and armed groups - to return to talks.

A dangerous spat broke out between South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame following the assault on Goma. Ramaphosa named the Rwandan Defence Forces, together with the M23, as responsible for the death of 13 South African soldiers (the toll has now risen to 14.)

Kinshasa, the UN and many independent experts accuse Kigali of backing the rebels. Rwanda rejects this and claims it has legitimate security interests in the eastern DRC. The situation is especially fragile considering the number of external actors involved.

Here are @CrisisGroup’s annual eight priorities for the #AU featuring entries on #Sudan, #Somalia, #Cameroon, #Sahel and #SouthSudan. In this thread, I’ll focus on #DRC, where the risk of regional war is high after the fall of #Goma to M23 rebels. 1/9 crisisgroup.org/africa/african…

A propos du sommet extraordinaire sur le conflit en #RDC proposé par l’EAC et la SADC ce vendredi et samedi, notre expert @SEMATUMBA parle de « succès diplomatique ». En revanche, Onesphore prévient qu’il ne faut nourrir de trop grosses attentes. rfi.fr/fr/afrique/202…