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SHOPPA fund
155 posts
SHOPPA fund
@SHOPPAfund
A team of cross-asset trader and a PhD in AI. A blend of fundamental analysis, proprietary algorithms, and hands-on TA. Our numbers speak for themselves.
Los Angeles Katılım Şubat 2025
11 Takip Edilen104 Takipçiler
Our new Market Internals Monitoring System for members:
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
shoppafund.substack.com/p/shoppas-new-…
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Pay attention to NG, platinum, silver and gold here and back to lithium as well.
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While everyone is playing tug of war over whether we're in a bull or bear market, we built a wall of soft commodities, NG, solars, and energy stocks (pre-war entries), and soon we will be adding silver and gold for round 2, along with uranium and rare metals when they finish consolidating. Commodities are a win-win in almost all macro scenarios coming up. I don't think I can say the same about tech. Good luck.
shoppafund.substack.com/publish/posts/…
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We called the first phase of the decline in October 2025, projecting the market character shift and Nasdaq top with precision, the correction in precious metals in Q1 alongside equities, and the oil spike ahead of the war news. We then called the April relief rally, the bridge phase. We are now at an inflection point. What is next in Shoppa's trading world?
substack.com/home/post/p-19…
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Our upper target for the April bounce - what we have been calling the bridge phase - has been reached. It may take a few days for the rally to stall and roll over before we enter the second leg lower. Our market outlook was issued in October for members and continues to follow the path exactly as projected.
SHOPPA fund@SHOPPAfund
Our mid-term targets we shared in October have been reached. Now let the market work through a shallow bounce into April before we continue lower.
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We cashed our calls on open.
SHOPPA fund@SHOPPAfund
I would pay attention to silver and gold here for a good run up.
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I would pay attention to silver and gold here for a good run up.
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The same way everybody talks about oil now, they will be talking about natural gas in a few months.
SHOPPA fund@SHOPPAfund
New market outlook. open.substack.com/chat/posts/ef2…
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We hate to brag, but our members pushed us to publish. So here are simple facts.
SHOPPA Fund closed Q1 2026 with a COMMONS-only portfolio return of +42.8% YTD, against an S&P 500 YTD performance of -5.08%.
The options book recorded 33 closed trades at an 87.9% win rate, with an average realized gain of +62.4% per trade YTD.
We appreciate your support!
@SHOPPAfund" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@SHOPPAfund
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Phase 1A of our October 2025 market outlook has concluded precisely at target - QQQ 560, SPX 6,350, including the pre-war oil spike. The macro structure remains fully intact. Let the bull and bear tug of war begin, while we quietly take the more asymmetric, lower-risk route here.
shoppafund.substack.com/p/shoppas-mark…
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Yes, the base case is a range-bound market for an extended period rather than a clean bull or bear. Value historically outperforms in stagflationary recessions - energy, materials, industrials, PMs. They generate real cash flows against a backdrop where growth earnings get destroyed by discount rate expansion. So yes, value leads, but stock-picking matters more than in a normal cycle. Energy and hard asset producers are the return generators for this cycle and that's where we focused pre-oil spike.
Tech is not uninvestable, but the valuation reset is not done. The issue is not the businesses - it is that 30x+ multiples were priced for a zero-rate world that no longer exists. A 5% 30-year structurally compresses what you can pay for future earnings. Tech bounces hard in bear market rallies but the return over a 2-3 year horizon from current valuations is likely muted unless rates come down significantly - which stagflation prevents.
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@SHOPPAfund Are you expecting a meaningful rally post June and a later sell off as in a range bound market for the next few years? Will large value be leading in a recessionary environment and will tech be worth buying or will returns remain muted due to valuations? Thank you!
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Our mid-term targets we shared in October have been reached. Now let the market work through a shallow bounce into April before we continue lower.
SHOPPA fund@SHOPPAfund
We warned members (long term view issued in October 2025) that we are not done selling, as we are hedged through late June - regardless of any shallow bounce in April. VIX term structure remains in deep inversion across multiple expirations, with spot volatility commanding a significant premium over the forward curve, a configuration historically associated with acute stress rather than orderly repricing. The persistence of this inversion over several sessions eliminates the possibility of a transient spike and confirms that the options market is pricing a sustained regime of elevated realized volatility. Negative butterfly structures across the surface indicate that tail risk is front-loaded in the near tenor, with the market assigning materially higher probability mass to immediate downside than to deferred risk events. The combination of elevated spot VIX, persistent term structure inversion, and concentrated near-term skew is consistent with a market that has not yet identified a credible clearing mechanism, participants are not positioning for a V-shaped recovery but rather hedging for continued drawdown or a secondary leg lower.
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