Sean Kates retweetledi
From our February Issue: Plutopopulism: Wealth and Trump’s Financial Base by @SKates5350, ERIC MANNING, @TMendelberg and @owasow. doi.org/10.1017/S00030…
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Sean Kates
354 posts
Sean Kates retweetledi
1. Frontier large language models are *fantastic* at checking preregistration fidelity. This is a perfect use case.
2. I recognize prereg norms differ. Editors can still use their judgment about what issues are severe enough to desk reject. IMO many of these cases are quite clear
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This is Jenna Ortega for people that like movies
conor 🇵🇸@conor_brn
Very funny how Yungblud is ‘separate the art from the artist’ but the opposite way around
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This whole movie is filled with beautiful sweaters and jackets. Thinking about the jacket the forensic psychologist wears in that early scene in the precinct. Great stuff
zoë@zoeloveshouses
thinking about this sweater again
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It’s fine; the book is having an impact! Yay! But this is bottom of the barrel ahistorical propaganda stuff
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I love how stupid this is. The book in 2nd place did this less than a month ago and it centers a specific issue, provides historical context, discusses the modern problem, and even offers some solutions. The third place book has done it multiple times over the past year(!)
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin
What was the last policy book to do this
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Sean Kates retweetledi
Were wealthy donors key to Trump’s campaigns in 2016 and 2020?
I'm thrilled to announce a new paper in which @ SKates5350, Eric Manning, @TMendelberg and I analyzed data on 108 million (!) homeowner-voters.
See cup.org/4cfm0Az 🧵 1/
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Sean Kates retweetledi
With correct link: Just published on APSR First View: "Plutopopulism: Wealth and Trump’s Financial Base" by Sean Kates, Eric Manning, Tali Mendelberg, and Omar Wasow. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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@apsrjournal Great to see this out. Link here works: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Just published on APSR First View: "Plutopopulism: Wealth and Trump’s Financial Base" by Sean Kates, Eric Manning, Tali Mendelberg, and Omar Wasow. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Randomly finding new music from Gabrielle Marlena on Spotify almost makes up for the horrible UI that stops me from easily finding new music on Spotify
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Ughhh. Blind squirrel, broken clock, bald guy pic, etc.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
Weighting on recalled vote share is a form of herding! It's a way to ensure your polls never get too far out of line with the consensus, or the previous election. But it'll make you miss actual movement in the electorate.
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I AM going to start telling people “ Literally just plug it into Bayes' Theorem,” though. Absolute banger of a defense when I’m clearly just yapping.
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At one point, I actually thought he was just cynically taking advantage of the set-up of his field, but now I am more horrified to find out he doesn’t understand it at all.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
Arthur you claim to be an expert in Bayesian statistics. Actually quite a lot of information is revealed by n=1 in this case, e.g. the Princeton model that gave Trump <1% chance is much much wronger than one that said p(Trump)=29%. Literally just plug it into Bayes' Theorem.
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Sean Kates retweetledi
Dukes rushing TD 🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌
Pitpanther01 aka BoredSportsBets🍌@BoredSportsBets
3-0 in the cfl this weekend Plays for the last 2 games
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Put more succinctly, the larger the house effect, the less faith you should have that the underlying signal you are attempting to back out was ever there/collected. There is probably a threshold where you are injecting more noise by including polls from that house.
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Interesting trade-off rarely discussed, but if a house is SUPPOSED to be measuring same thing as everyone else, and they have a large and consistent enough craziness that you think it makes your house effect estimate easy, it's probably fraud and you should exclude entirely
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris
@lxeagle17 One good thing about this is the more observations you have of a pollster getting weird data in one direction the easier it is to fit a house effect, and you can do it earlier in the campaign
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Sean Kates retweetledi
To celebrate the DVD and Blu-Ray release of the year's most talked about film - we're giving away this Past Lives inspired bundle which includes:
Blu-Ray / DVD
A Celine Song Girls On Tops tee
In-Yun Zine
To enter - follow + retweet and 3 winners will be picked at random.
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Answer makes sense but just by percentages, your first guess has to be “Agnes”, right?
Dolores G. Morris@DoloresGMorris
Fun fact: I am a philosopher married to a philosopher. Our oldest child has his first girlfriend. He now loves to tell us that he, too, is a philosopher. Anyone care to guess her name? 😂
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