Lava retweetledi
Lava
1.1K posts
eth moving as if vitalik dumped his gf
TraderSZ@trader1sz
longed some $ETHUSD here. clear invalidation on a clean break below red level
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I bought $ETH in 2020 for $90.
Then 2 years later in 2022,
I sold it for $4,000.
However,
During the 2025 crypto cycle
Many people expected $ETH to make insane new all time highs.
(Including myself)
This didn’t happen.
And in parabolic cycles,
When a coin cannot make a parabolic new all time high
It’s the biggest sign of weakness.
And now I can confidently say:
$ETH is dead.
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Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop.
I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency)
Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money.
But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question:
1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things
2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know.
3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk.
(1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop.
(2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high.
This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk.
Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58.
Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether?
Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses".
Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability.
Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate.
Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.
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Wondering what @alessiorastani has to say about the price action of the last few weeks on $BTC $ETH
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@amitisinvesting Alright no haircut or shaving until ATHs
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Welcome Back Home, Ethereum.
This time, I guess it stays a while, goes down to the basement to get a snack later this year, and then the next bull market begins
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$ETH
Those who have been following me for months know this: I put it in writing. And people not retweet🤷🏻♂️
The market does not really take off until it gets what it needs:
stop losses, panic selling, orders left there by those who cannot handle the pressure.
I said that as long as that area remained intact, any movement above it was only superficial:
fragile, incomplete, destined to break at the first gust of wind.
First, the field must be cleared.
Then, and only then, will the real movement come.
Well, my analysis was spot on.
EliZ@eliz883
people get emotionally involved $ETH nothing change If I were to buy dip spots, I would do so on ETH and not on BTC. Liquidity is needed, and it is right there at the bottom. The market won't move until it collects what it needs: stops, panic sells, pending orders. Until that area is touched or cleared, any movement above it will always be fragile, incomplete. That's where the real structure starts, not where everyone hopes it will. First it takes what it needs, then it decides the direction.
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Lava retweetledi
They idiot OG giving you a fantastic opportunity... keep it up, take it where it needs to go. $ETH
Give more down
EliZ@eliz883
In the coming months, if I had to choose where to focus my purchases during periods of decline, I would focus on $ETH rather than BTC. This is not a random decision: it is based on an analysis of the structure and risk/return ratio. On the ETH/BTC exchange, we are working within a broad demand range after a long period of weakness: here, the market has already shown its ability to absorb sales and build foundations. In this context, any deep dump on ETH tends to offer entries with better measurable risk below the lows of the zone and greater recovery potential if the price regains lost levels. Look for confirmation with a reclaim of key levels on the ETH/BTC pair and on the price action in USD, and let the charts validate the thesis. In summary: same caution, but more exposure to ETH where I currently see the best relative recovery Of course 👉🏻even if you’re accumulating spot, risk management always comes first. Position size, invalidation level, and discipline matter more than the entry price.
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