Sovit Manjani - CMT, CFTe

I began my trading career in 2007 by losing over ₹2.5 lakhs in the stock market. Here's my story on Josh Talk. After 16 years, 1000+ trades, and with many struggles, this is my journey in the stock market! The talk covers the whole journey: From me leaving a Dubai job to pursue trading, my CMT designation, the struggles, challenges, the lows and the highs, everything. I'm glad Josh Talks gave me a platform to share these stories with you. This video is not just for traders but for anyone seeking inspiration to overcome obstacles and pursue their dreams. I turned my life around at 37; trust me, you have more time than you think; it gets better. You can watch my complete JoshTalk through the link below: youtube.com/watch?v=I0KZrZ…

If you’ve missed this rally and feel the urge to jump in out of FOMO, that’s exactly when you’re most vulnerable to making bad decisions. Chasing extended moves is how capital gets destroyed. Stay grounded. Stick to your setups. If there’s no valid entry, there’s no trade. Simple. This is likely just the early phase of a broader bull cycle. Historically, bull markets don’t end in a few weeks, they tend to sustain for 12 to 17 months on average, often longer. Which means this is not a “now or never” moment, it’s a “be ready and execute when your edge appears” phase. Your job isn’t to catch every move. Your job is to catch *your* move, with discipline, risk control, and conviction. The market will give multiple clean opportunities, but only if you have the patience to wait and the clarity to act when it matters. #NIFTY #NIFTYMIDSML400

Over the past 4.5 years, Infosys has essentially gone nowhere, failing to deliver any meaningful returns, and is now drifting dangerously close to the lower end of its long-term range. This kind of prolonged underperformance, especially at a time when broader markets have moved ahead, is a clear red flag. It signals weakening momentum, lack of institutional conviction, and potentially deeper structural issues within the IT sector. If this base fails to hold, it could open the door for further downside, making the near-term and even medium-term outlook for IT stocks increasingly fragile. #INFY #CNXIT

I went through roughly 1,000 charts today, and the underlying structure is far from convincing. About 70% of stocks have moved higher without forming any tight consolidation zones that typically provide low-risk entry points. That means most of this move has been driven by impulsive buying rather than orderly accumulation. Digging deeper, nearly 60% of these advancing stocks are simply bottom-bounce moves. These are not strong leadership breakouts. They are reactive rallies from oversold conditions, which historically tend to be weaker and less sustainable unless they transition into proper bases. What this tells me is simple: the rally lacks structure, lacks quality setups, and lacks institutional-style accumulation patterns. You’re seeing price move, but not the kind of price behavior that builds durable trends. A V-shaped rally built on this kind of foundation is fragile. It leaves no room for positioning, no proper risk-defined entries, and typically ends up trapping late participants. My expectation from here is not continuation in a straight line. Either the market corrects in price, or it moves sideways to build a base. Only after that kind of reset will you start seeing meaningful opportunities with favorable risk-reward. #NIFTY #IranWar‌

Patience is not inactivity. It’s controlled aggression waiting for the right moment.

The sharp V-shaped recovery hasn’t given stocks enough time to build a proper right side of the base. From here, a time-wise or price-wise correction is likely before any meaningful upside can resume. Once that correction plays out, it will create a fresh set of opportunities. The real question is: are you prepared to capitalize on them? #NIFTY #NIFTYMIDSML400 #IranWar‌

Holding #MTARTECH since 29 Jan. This wasn’t a random entry, it was a planned build. I scaled into the position step by step as the setup evolved, without chasing or forcing size. Now it has grown into one of the largest positions in my portfolio, not because of conviction alone, but because price confirmed the thesis. The real edge isn’t just in entering right, it’s in managing size and risk as the trade works. I already have a clear exit plan defined, so there’s no emotional decision-making when it matters most.

#NIFTY_Analysis Now, I want to see a clear sequence of Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the 1-hour chart of Nifty to validate that short-term trend strength is actually building, not just reacting. Until that structure is established, any bounce is just noise. But once price starts respecting this formation, it signals that buyers are stepping in with intent, not just covering shorts. That’s the shift I’m waiting for. Only after this confirmation will I start gradually building positions in equities, focusing on strength rather than trying to catch the bottom. #NIFTY #Banknifty #IranWar‌ #Trump

Nifty is currently reacting precisely from a key support zone, indicating a potential bounce from these levels. However, this is a critical area. If the support fails to hold, it can trigger a sharp downside move due to lack of immediate demand below. #NIFTY #BANKNIFTY

Nifty is approaching a critical zone. The 21,700–21,750 range stands out as the next meaningful support, both structurally and psychologically. This area previously acted as a demand zone and aligns with prior consolidation, making it a logical level where buyers may attempt to step in. However, context matters. The recent decline has been sharp, indicating urgency on the sell side rather than controlled distribution. In such environments, supports don’t always hold on the first attempt. They get tested, breached, and then reclaimed if strength is real. #NIFTY #BANKNIFTY #IranWar‌

Most traders will miss this bottom. Not because they’re wrong. Because they’re looking at the wrong data. Forget opinions. Watch participation. Also understand this: The broader market has done nothing for the last 1 year. Now the data is starting to shift. When the % of stocks above 200 DMA: • Drops below ~20% → market is washed out • Reclaims 20% → participation returns Now layer this with confirmation: • 2 consecutive 90% up days → Strong thrust. Real buying, not short covering • 52-week High–Low Index currently near 4 → If it expands above 20, participation broadens meaningfully • No. of stocks with Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA) → Early-stage trend transitions start here → Currently near ~30, which can also act as a contra signal zone This shift is where risk-reward flips. Not at the bottom. Not at the news. At participation. Before this, clean buyable opportunities were limited. Here’s where most people fail: They go bargain hunting. They buy what fell the most. That’s exactly how you stay stuck. There is a high probability a short-term bottom can form around this phase. If you want to act right, do this: • Track Relative Strength → Leaders don’t collapse with the market • Focus on stocks near 52-week highs → Strength compounds, weakness traps Uncomfortable truth: The best opportunities never feel obvious. They feel early. They feel risky. They feel wrong. Markets don’t reward those who predict bottoms. They reward those who recognise leadership early. Now the real question: When breadth turns… Will you buy strength, or chase weakness again?

18-year market leaders at 52-week lows… in just a ~10% Nifty correction. Let that sink in. Asian Paints. Pidilite. HDFC Bank. TCS. Bajaj Finance. Not small caps. Not junk. These are compounding machines of India. And it doesn’t stop there… TechM, Infosys, Trent, Tata Motors, Cipla, Wipro, ITC, HUL, ICICI Bank, HDFC Life — across sectors — all showing meaningful damage. So what is this? End of a supercycle? Or A rare opportunity? Most people will jump to conclusions. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: 👉 This is what distribution looks like before it becomes obvious. 👉 This is also what rotation looks like when leadership changes. 👉 And sometimes… this is simply what mean reversion looks like after years of excess returns. You don’t get to call it “value” just because price has fallen. You don’t get to call it “end of cycle” just because leaders are weak. The real question is: Are these stocks temporarily out of favor or are they structurally losing momentum in the market’s hierarchy? Because markets don’t reward past leadership. They reward current strength. If you’re blindly averaging into “quality” without evidence of strength, you’re not investing. You’re anchoring to reputation. And if you’re calling this the end of a cycle without confirmation, you’re just guessing. This is where real skill shows: Not prediction. Not conviction. But adaptability. 📌 Track relative strength. 📌 Track sector rotation. 📌 Let price tell you when leadership returns. Until then, stay honest with what the market is actually doing. Because the market doesn’t care how great a company was over the last 18 years. It only cares about what works next. #HDFCBANK #TCS #ASIANPAINTS #BAJAJFINSV

When the entire market is falling, it’s not falling for no reason…

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett Right now, everyone is suddenly a bottom caller. “This is the bottom.” “Markets are cheap.” “Perfect buying opportunity.” Let’s get real. You’re not buying fear. You’re buying discomfort. A 5–10% fall and people start quoting Buffett. That’s not fear. That’s mild inconvenience. Real fear looks very different: • Stocks hitting lower circuits with no bids • Leaders breaking down, not bouncing • Breadth collapsing, not improving • People exiting not because they want to… but because they have to Look at the market closely. Is money flowing into strong stocks? Or are beaten-down names just bouncing? Most rallies in weak markets are led by losers, not leaders. That’s not strength. That’s short covering. The uncomfortable truth: Bottoms don’t form when people feel smart buying dips. They form when people feel stupid holding anything. If you don’t have a clear, rule-based definition of “fear,” you will do what most traders do: 👉 Buy too early 👉 Sit through drawdowns 👉 Call it long-term conviction This isn’t about being bullish or bearish. This is about being honest. Because the market doesn’t reward opinions. It punishes premature confidence. #StockMarket #TradingPsychology #CMT #RuleBasedTrading #RiskManagement

Most people will look at today’s market and feel relieved. Midcap and smallcap indices up ~2%. Green everywhere. Looks like strength is back. But if you actually dig deeper, the story is very different. 159 stocks hit extreme zones today: • 139 stocks made fresh 52-week lows • Only 20 stocks made new 52-week highs Let that sink in. This is not strength. This is damage being temporarily masked. I went through the top gainers list today, and the pattern was clear: The rally was led by beaten-down stocks bouncing from oversold levels, not by high relative strength leaders expanding into new highs. That’s a big difference. Strong markets are driven by leaders making new highs. Weak markets are driven by laggards bouncing. Right now, we are seeing the second. This is where most traders make a costly mistake: They confuse relief rallies with trend reversals. Just because price is going up doesn’t mean the market is healthy. Breadth is still weak. Leadership is missing. And without leadership, rallies don’t sustain. If you’re serious about protecting capital and compounding it: Stop chasing green candles blindly. Wait for confirmation. Wait for strength to show up where it actually matters — in stocks making new highs with strong relative performance. Until then, treat this move for what it is: A bounce, not a breakout.

@Ravi_Riskmgmt No higher high no higher low, so still bearish

KAISA LAG RHA HAI FRIENDS...???

“IDBI Bank fell ~16% today with massive volume. Simple question for traders: Did the news cause the fall or did price action warn before the news came out? Look carefully at the chart before answering.” #IDBI

⏩Have faith in India’s growth story. #NIFTY #NIFTYMIDCAP #BANKNIFTY #INDIA

𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲. Nifty fell more than 2% BankNifty declined around 2.4% Midcap index dropped 2.5%+ For most portfolios, a day like this means damage. But here is a screenshot from 𝐦𝐲 𝐅&𝐎 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲. While the market was falling, the portfolio was making money. So the obvious question is: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧? Not by predicting. Not by watching TV debates. Not by reacting to news. The answer is 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞-𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠. In my system: • 𝐖𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐩 • 𝐖𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞 • If price goes in our favor, we profit • If price goes against us, we cut the loss No opinions. No ego. Just 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. Now here is the interesting part. For the past 2–3 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬, the market was already sending warnings: • 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 • 𝐅𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 • 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐭𝐡 All these signals were quietly suggesting 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. Meanwhile, headlines were positive. Analysts were celebrating 𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒. And then suddenly the narrative changed to 𝐰𝐚𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬. But the truth is simple. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐝. Because in most cases: 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐬. 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬. If you learn to read 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐦𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐭𝐡, you stop chasing news and start understanding the market. And one lesson the market keeps repeating: 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭. 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭. #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #FuturesAndOptions #TradingStrategy #RuleBasedTrading #MarketBreadth #MomentumTrading #RiskManagement #Nifty50 #AlgoTrading #CMT #SystematicTrading #MarketPsychology #ProcessOverPrediction #TradeWithRules @CMTAssociation

@rockstarsszz I had coded it in Amibroker before that i have made it in Excel as well, but some software do have it, let me check and come back.

@SOVITCMT Nice one Sir! Wheere can we get the indicator for stocks above 200 dMA in Nifty 500? Thank you

A lot of people have been asking me lately: “Is this the best time to buy equities?” Instead of guessing, let’s look at what the market itself is telling us. If you observe the two charts: • Top panel: NIFTY 50 • Bottom panel: Number of stocks above their 200-Day Simple Moving Average This breadth indicator tells us something very important about market health. When the number of stocks above the 200-day SMA falls below 20, it usually signals that the market is in a bearish phase. Most stocks are already in downtrends. This is where many investors make a costly mistake. They try to buy aggressively during the fall, thinking they are getting bargains. But in reality, they are trying to catch a falling knife. And catching falling knives usually cuts your hands. A more rational approach is simple: Wait for the market to stop falling first. The real opportunity appears when the number of stocks above the 200-day SMA starts rising again and moves above 20. That’s when participation begins to return. You can see this clearly in the chart during: • April 2020 • June 2022 • March 2025 These were phases when breadth started improving and the market began rebuilding strength. Now the next important question: What should you buy when the market improves? Most people again make the wrong choice. They chase the stocks that have fallen 70–90%, assuming they are “cheap”. In reality, the strongest trends usually come from stocks showing strength, not weakness. A better strategy is to focus on stocks that: • Are near their 52-week highs • Show strong relative strength vs the benchmark • Have demonstrated powerful momentum for at least the last 3 months Strong stocks tend to get stronger when the market turns up. Weak stocks often remain weak. Markets reward strength, leadership, and momentum, not damaged charts. Sometimes the best edge in markets is not predicting bottoms. It is simply waiting for the market to prove that strength is returning. #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketBreadth #MomentumInvesting #Nifty50 #TradingPsychology #CMT #MarketBreadth @CMTAssociation