SPAC Research

Earnouts are once again taking center stage in deal structures, shifting downside risk onto sellers, while sponsors step back from performance exposure. Now, the real measure of success will be how often these targets are actually achieved.

Were seller earnout price triggers designed to be realistic? Look at the price jump needed to hit them at closing versus today in the chart below. What once seemed achievable is now increasingly ambitious. 🧵 #ClosedDeals

Seller earnouts are making a comeback, while sponsor earnouts quietly fade — more deal value is being tied to performance. 🧵 #Earnouts #SPAC #Market #Seller #Sponsor

Most SPAC trust capital is not facing a near-term deadline cliff — giving the market time to find, finance, and close quality deals.

Let’s look at where this capital sits. Near term deadlines are flooded with live deals — will they close, or will they extend? 🧵 #LiveDeal #PreDeal

Plenty of SPAC trust capital remains in the market — and the maturity wall below shows it isn’t expiring anytime soon. 🧵 #SPAC #Market #Deadline #TrustCapital

The ripple effects are already visible in SPACs yet to price — strengthening the possibility of a continued trend. IPO conditions are getting constrained, but not necessarily unhealthy. This may simply be the market resetting toward more disciplined terms. #PreIPO

Warrant coverage shot up dramatically — climbing back toward early 2023 levels. #Warrant #Structure 🧵

Are IPO terms signaling a turning tide? After most 2026 IPOs priced on favorable terms, the market appears to be gradually tightening. Let’s look at the signs. Over-allotment activity captures IPO market demand — watch how that’s moved in over 3 years in the animation below. 🧵

PIPEs are powerful anchors to SPAC mergers, but big PIPEs and oversubscribed PIPEs clearly steal the show — delivering strong performance and higher investor confidence.

PIPEs are strongly correlated with redemption rates — smaller PIPEs rarely see redemptions below 75%. 🧵

PIPEs matter — see how stock prices compare across deSPACs who announce a PIPE upfront, signal plans to market one or have no PIPE at all. DeSPACs with Big PIPEs and Oversubscribed PIPEs are leading — look at their median stock prices soaring above the rest. #DeSPAC #PIPE🧵