CatX368

407 posts

CatX368

CatX368

@SPCat368

Katılım Şubat 2020
1.1K Takip Edilen78 Takipçiler
TT3
TT3@TradingThomas3·
Uh ohhhhh
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Chicken Genius
Chicken Genius@pakpakchicken·
If you’re looking at others posting screenshots and celebrating. This is the part of the cycle called the winner’s curse. Market's going up not because of fundamentals, one reason is MM covering for calls purchased. Before you click “buy” at the top, remember: This is not a sprint, it’s a lifelong journey. Survive long enough, and you’ll make it. That’s time doing its job. Not you. You’ve seen me go through two full cycles publicly. I’m never the “best” in any single cycle, but I outperform the “best” over a long enough period. It’s my believe we will run it hot, but volatility will always, ALWAYS come back to roost. Game of musical chairs. Will I can’t promise outperformance always, I’ll do my best. Always transparent, public and no paid wall.
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@KobeissiLetter Could this be just an amplified bull run due to momentum-triggered trading algos ? I expect the reversal will be equally sharp once the machines start trampling over each other during the exit.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
We truly are witnessing history right now. It's clear that the period we are in now will be referenced for decades to come. The S&P 500 has added +$10 trillion in 29 days, semiconductor, AI stocks are surging 100%+ in weeks, and the Trump Administration is up +550% on Intel. When we began emphasizing the need to own assets to win in this market over 12 months ago, this is exactly what we meant. While inflation is back and the labor market has weakened, it simply does not matter right now. In fact, the return of inflation has only intensified the scramble for yield and hard assets that can preserve purchasing power. Look at the data: just 5 stocks have accounted for ~50% of the S&P 500’s total gains since April 1st. These same tech giants driving the market higher are gaining even more momentum amid rate cuts, deregulation, and historic inflows into equities. Asset owners are experiencing one of the greatest wealth expansions in modern history while everyone else is being left behind. Our 12+ month thesis has materialized.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement on the stock market hitting record highs.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@elonmusk The idea is every player sees hope to stay in the game, including those severely disadvantaged
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
This is how an economy actually works
Brivael Le Pogam@brivael

Elon Musk avait dit un truc qui m'avait marqué sur l'allocation de ressources. En substance : passé un certain niveau de richesse, l'argent n'est plus de la consommation, c'est de l'allocation de capital. Cette phrase change tout. L'économie, dans le fond, c'est juste un problème d'allocation. Tu as des ressources finies et des usages infinis. Qui décide où va quoi ? Imagine une cour de récré. 100 enfants, des paquets de cartes Pokémon distribués au hasard. Tu laisses faire. Très vite, un ordre émerge. Les bons joueurs accumulent les cartes rares, les collectionneurs trient, les négociateurs trouvent des deals. Personne n'a planifié. Et pourtant chaque carte finit dans les mains de celui qui en tire le plus de valeur. Le système maximise le bonheur total de la cour. C'est ça, la main invisible. Maintenant fais entrer la maîtresse. Elle trouve ça injuste. Léo a 50 cartes, Tom en a 3. Elle confisque, redistribue, impose l'égalité. Trois effets immédiats. Les bons joueurs arrêtent de jouer, à quoi bon. Les mauvais n'ont plus de raison de progresser, ils auront leur part. Les échanges s'effondrent. La cour est égale, et morte. Elle a maximisé l'égalité, elle a détruit le bonheur. Le problème de la maîtresse, c'est qu'elle ne peut pas avoir l'information que la cour avait collectivement. C'est le problème du calcul économique de Mises, formulé en 1920. L'URSS a essayé de le résoudre pendant 70 ans avec le Gosplan. Résultat : pénuries, queues, effondrement. Pas parce que les Soviétiques étaient bêtes, parce que le problème est mathématiquement insoluble en mode centralisé. Quand Musk a 200 milliards, il ne les consomme pas, il les alloue. SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, xAI. Chaque dollar est un pari sur le futur. Et lui a un track record. PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. Il a démontré qu'il sait identifier des problèmes immenses et y allouer des ressources avec un rendement spectaculaire. L'État aussi a un track record. Hôpitaux qui s'effondrent, éducation qui décline, dette qui explose, services publics qui se dégradent malgré des budgets en hausse constante. Le marché identifie les bons allocateurs, la politique identifie les bons communicants. Le profit n'est pas une finalité, c'est un signal. Il dit : tu as alloué des ressources rares vers un usage que les gens valorisent suffisamment pour payer. Plus le profit est gros, plus la création de valeur est grande. Quand Starlink est rentable, ça veut dire que des millions de gens dans des zones rurales ont enfin internet. Quand un ministère est en déficit, ça veut dire qu'il consomme plus qu'il ne produit. L'un crée, l'autre détruit, et on appelle ça redistribution. Dans nos sociétés il y a deux catégories d'acteurs. Les entrepreneurs et les bureaucrates. L'entrepreneur prend un risque personnel pour identifier un problème, mobiliser des ressources, créer une solution. S'il se trompe il perd. S'il a raison, ses clients gagnent, ses employés gagnent, ses fournisseurs gagnent, l'État collecte des impôts. Il est la cellule de base du progrès humain. Le bureaucrate ne prend aucun risque personnel. Son salaire est garanti. Au mieux il maintient une rente existante. Au pire il la détruit par excès de réglementation, mauvaise allocation forcée, incitations perverses qui découragent ceux qui produisent. Mais dans aucun cas il ne crée. Regarde les 50 dernières années. iPhone, internet civil, SpaceX, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Stripe, mRNA, ChatGPT. Toutes des inventions privées, portées par des entrepreneurs, financées par du capital risque. Pas un seul ministère n'a inventé quoi que ce soit qui ait changé ta vie au quotidien. La France est devenue le laboratoire mondial de la dérive bureaucratique. 57% du PIB en dépenses publiques, record absolu. Une administration tentaculaire, une fiscalité qui pénalise la création de richesse. Résultat : décrochage face aux États-Unis, à l'Allemagne, à la Suisse. Fuite des cerveaux. Désindustrialisation. Dette qui explose. Et le pire c'est que la mauvaise allocation s'auto-renforce. Plus l'État prélève, moins les entrepreneurs créent. Moins ils créent, moins il y a de base fiscale. Plus l'État s'endette et taxe. Boucle de rétroaction négative parfaite. La maîtresse pense qu'elle aide, et chaque année la cour produit moins. Dans nos sociétés, ce sont les entrepreneurs, toujours, qui font avancer la civilisation. Les bureaucrates au mieux maintiennent une rente, au pire la détruisent. Aucune société n'a jamais progressé en taxant ses créateurs pour subventionner ses gestionnaires. La question n'est jamais qui a combien. C'est qui alloue le mieux la prochaine unité de ressource pour maximiser le futur de l'humanité. La réponse depuis 200 ans n'a jamais changé. Ce ne sont pas les fonctionnaires.

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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@elonmusk I wonder what would happen if Steve is still alive. Elon and Steve, or Elon vs Steve, would be spectacular fireworks for us!
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
It has been such an honor to work with so many amazingly talented people
Ian Miles Cheong@ianmiles

Marc Andreessen highlights why the people who work for Elon Musk echo the exact same sentiment as those who worked for Steve Jobs. Even after difficult interactions or a sudden departure, they inevitably report that they did the best work of their entire lives because they were pushed to their absolute limits. What drives this intense environment is a demand for truth-seeking at all costs. People who criticize Elon often miss this fundamental trait. He genuinely wants to know the ground truth and has zero tolerance for anything else. When confronting bad news, he is absolutely ruthless and relentless in making sure he understands exactly what is actually going on. This level of radical transparency is shockingly rare in the business world. The typical startup founder operates on forced optimism, constantly putting on a brave face, telling everyone to have faith, and promising that everything will be great just to keep talent from leaving. Elon completely flips that standard script. He operates with pure urgency by simply telling the unfiltered truth, even when that truth is that the company will go bankrupt and die if they fail. In almost any other corporate environment, that level of blunt, existential dread would cause the talent pool to immediately bleed out. But for the teams working under him, that brutal honesty acts as the ultimate catalyst. It strips away the corporate fluff and forces them to rise to the occasion, leaving them with the undeniable realization that, much like the engineers who built the first iPhone, they just completed the greatest work of their careers.

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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Nearly 40% of Americans said that they have less than $500 in cash savings, per FOX 5
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@KobeissiLetter Not surprising considering that most government jobs are easily replaceable by AI.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
US government job openings are falling: Government job openings dropped -51,000 in February, to 701,000, the 2nd-lowest since December 2020. Since the 2022 peak, available vacancies in the government have dropped -524,000 and are now in-line with the pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, federal government job openings fell -3,000, to 89,000, the 2nd-lowest since the 2020 pandemic low. This is also in-line with the lows recorded in 2017 and 2018. Meanwhile, the government hiring rate stood at 1.4%, one of the lowest levels since mid-2020 and matching the 2016 and 2017 lows. Government hiring is frozen.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Data Driven Stocks
Data Driven Stocks@stockdatamarket·
I predicted the whole $SPY selloff since it was $695. I predicted today's sell-off during Trump's speech. But I would never predict $SPY recovering 2%, while Oil went up 12.5% to a new weekly high. It was the weirdest thing of the year!
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@MapleStax This is what investors logically do, but does not apply for short term traders on margin, so it’s a valid rule. Short term holding power in itself is a huge risk though.
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@MapleStax Because somehow, somebody always know about the news first
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MapleStax Trades
MapleStax Trades@MapleStax·
Price always precedes news. If you rely on news to trade you will get liquidated faster than that huge candle appeared on your chart. Learn to read price instead of chasing moves just for profit
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@MapleStax What a coincidence. White charts are simply clearer
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MapleStax Trades
MapleStax Trades@MapleStax·
I’m moving to white charts fuck it
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Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
Asset Managers dumped $36.2 Billion worth of S&P 500 futures contracts between March 3-10, their largest weekly sale in over a decade 🚨
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Corporate insiders are dumping stocks: ~1,000 executives at US-listed companies have sold shares in January, compared to just 207 buyers. This pushes the ratio of insider sellers to buyers up to 4.8, the highest since February 2021 and 2nd-highest since 2020. This ratio has more than doubled since November 2025. Insiders are increasingly concerned about escalating geopolitical tensions, valuations, and potentially unsustainable AI capital expenditures. Corporate insiders are securing historic gains.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Jesse Cohen
Jesse Cohen@JesseCohenInv·
Gold has overtaken the U.S. Dollar as the largest Global Reserve Asset. It's over for fiat.
Jesse Cohen tweet media
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Adam Kobeissi
Adam Kobeissi@TKL_Adam·
Silver just posted two 4-sigma moves in the same day, rising and falling 14% in a matter of hours. A 4-sigma significance is the 0.003% likelihood of a statistical fluctuation. That just happened twice in one day.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Europeans are piling into US stocks: European investors now own a record $10.4 trillion in US stocks. Ownership has surged +$4.9 trillion, or +91%, over the last 3 years. Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the UK, now hold ~$5.7 trillion in US equities, or 55% of total European holdings. By comparison, the rest of the world holds $10.9 trillion. In other words, European investors now reflect ~49% of all foreign holdings of US equities. Europe’s exposure to US stocks is at unprecedented levels despite the trade war.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Tesla Owners Silicon Valley
Tesla Owners Silicon Valley@teslaownersSV·
Elon Musk: “It appears that, when civilizations are under stress, the birth rate is high, but as soon as they have no external enemies, or they have an extended period of prosperity, the birth rate inevitably drops.”
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CatX368
CatX368@SPCat368·
@DocumentingBTC They trade against each other as in they are always betting in opposite directions?
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Documenting ₿itcoin 📄
Documenting ₿itcoin 📄@DocumentingBTC·
In Seoul, South Korea, cryptocurrency trading is an E-sport where competitors buy and sell derivative markets against each other in tournaments.
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