CatX368
407 posts


If you’re looking at others posting screenshots and celebrating.
This is the part of the cycle called the winner’s curse.
Market's going up not because of fundamentals, one reason is MM covering for calls purchased.
Before you click “buy” at the top, remember:
This is not a sprint, it’s a lifelong journey.
Survive long enough, and you’ll make it.
That’s time doing its job. Not you.
You’ve seen me go through two full cycles publicly. I’m never the “best” in any single cycle, but I outperform the “best” over a long enough period.
It’s my believe we will run it hot, but volatility will always, ALWAYS come back to roost. Game of musical chairs.
Will I can’t promise outperformance always, I’ll do my best. Always transparent, public and no paid wall.


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@KobeissiLetter Could this be just an amplified bull run due to momentum-triggered trading algos ? I expect the reversal will be equally sharp once the machines start trampling over each other during the exit.
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We truly are witnessing history right now.
It's clear that the period we are in now will be referenced for decades to come.
The S&P 500 has added +$10 trillion in 29 days, semiconductor, AI stocks are surging 100%+ in weeks, and the Trump Administration is up +550% on Intel.
When we began emphasizing the need to own assets to win in this market over 12 months ago, this is exactly what we meant.
While inflation is back and the labor market has weakened, it simply does not matter right now.
In fact, the return of inflation has only intensified the scramble for yield and hard assets that can preserve purchasing power.
Look at the data: just 5 stocks have accounted for ~50% of the S&P 500’s total gains since April 1st.
These same tech giants driving the market higher are gaining even more momentum amid rate cuts, deregulation, and historic inflows into equities.
Asset owners are experiencing one of the greatest wealth expansions in modern history while everyone else is being left behind.
Our 12+ month thesis has materialized.
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@KobeissiLetter Not surprising considering that most government jobs are easily replaceable by AI.
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US government job openings are falling:
Government job openings dropped -51,000 in February, to 701,000, the 2nd-lowest since December 2020.
Since the 2022 peak, available vacancies in the government have dropped -524,000 and are now in-line with the pre-pandemic levels.
Furthermore, federal government job openings fell -3,000, to 89,000, the 2nd-lowest since the 2020 pandemic low.
This is also in-line with the lows recorded in 2017 and 2018.
Meanwhile, the government hiring rate stood at 1.4%, one of the lowest levels since mid-2020 and matching the 2016 and 2017 lows.
Government hiring is frozen.

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@MapleStax This is what investors logically do, but does not apply for short term traders on margin, so it’s a valid rule. Short term holding power in itself is a huge risk though.
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@MapleStax Because somehow, somebody always know about the news first
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Corporate insiders are dumping stocks:
~1,000 executives at US-listed companies have sold shares in January, compared to just 207 buyers.
This pushes the ratio of insider sellers to buyers up to 4.8, the highest since February 2021 and 2nd-highest since 2020.
This ratio has more than doubled since November 2025.
Insiders are increasingly concerned about escalating geopolitical tensions, valuations, and potentially unsustainable AI capital expenditures.
Corporate insiders are securing historic gains.

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Europeans are piling into US stocks:
European investors now own a record $10.4 trillion in US stocks.
Ownership has surged +$4.9 trillion, or +91%, over the last 3 years.
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the UK, now hold ~$5.7 trillion in US equities, or 55% of total European holdings.
By comparison, the rest of the world holds $10.9 trillion.
In other words, European investors now reflect ~49% of all foreign holdings of US equities.
Europe’s exposure to US stocks is at unprecedented levels despite the trade war.

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@DocumentingBTC They trade against each other as in they are always betting in opposite directions?
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