S&P Global

From @SPGMarketIntel: Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July. Read the Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: July 2026 to learn more. okt.to/S9RqHf

The US banking sector experienced a broad-based market rally in June. The market cap-weighted S&P US BMI Banks index's total return for the month was 9.3%, compared to a 1% decline in the S&P 500. In an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of 203 banks, the group returned 8.6% on a median basis in June. All 203 banks in the analysis generated positive total returns for the month, and only 21 returned 5.0% or less. The monthly total return leaders were Martinsville, Virginia-based Carter Bankshares Inc. and Damariscotta, Maine-based First Bancorp Inc., with returns of 24.6% and 19.6%, respectively. Discover more insights with @SPGMarketIntel: okt.to/eZVUFC

China's latest adjustment to vehicle and vessel tax incentives is expected to have little immediate impact on the country's lithium carbonate market, with market observers saying the changes were widely anticipated and unlikely to alter electric vehicle purchasing decisions. China's Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 3 jointly issued a notice revising preferential vehicle and vessel tax policies. Read more with @EnergySPG: okt.to/2xvs46

From @SPGMarketIntel: The pace of global economic growth edged higher in June, according to worldwide PMI survey data from S&P Global. Although still running below the pace seen earlier in the year, output rose globally at the fastest rate since the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, the structure of growth showed signs of changing amid the improved newsflow out of the Middle East: the recent strong manufacturing expansion slowing amid reduced precautionary stock building, while services growth revived – notably for consumer-facing industries – amid the recent drop in energy prices. Get more insights: okt.to/EpfFQk

Many of @SPGMarketIntel’s economic predictions are on track, and although the conflict in the Middle East has derailed some, it reinforces the core theme of shaky economic foundations. For corporate strategy, business planning and market intelligence teams, the first half of 2026 underscores the need to pressure-test assumptions more frequently as geopolitical shocks, inflation dynamics, interest rates and regional growth trends evolve. Here's what business leaders need to know at midyear. okt.to/aTzK3G

The UK's Mineral Products Association has called on the government to favor British-made cement and other domestic construction materials in major public projects, arguing that local supply is critical to meeting housing and infrastructure targets while supporting industrial resilience. The call, at a June 30 parliamentary reception, comes as UK cement producers face mounting pressure from energy costs and carbon policy charges, with climate and energy policies now costing the sector a combined GBP82 million, nearly double the GBP45 million recorded in 2015, the association said in a statement July 2. Read more from @EnergySPG: okt.to/xhB0RK

From @SPGlobalRatings: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran reduce the tail risk of a more prolonged effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but they do not erase the longer-lasting credit and macroeconomic effects of the disruption. Even if shipping normalizes gradually, governments and companies are likely to reassess energy security, strategic inventories, insurance coverage, and supply-chain redundancy. Read the full report: Global Credit Conditions And Outlook Q3 2026: Fragile Relief. okt.to/ZD3YXS

The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on credit ratings has been growing over the last few years. @SPGlobalRatings took 54 rating actions on 37 issuers globally between January 2023 and May 2026 where we identified the effect of AI as a main factor of the rating change. These actions span both nonfinancial corporates and financial institutions. The majority of these rating actions related to positive impacts from AI adoption, particularly within the high technology sector, and investments in data center infrastructure. While risks exist, we think AI has largely been a net positive for credit ratings to date. Get more insights: okt.to/Qixh8v

Malaysia's palm oil industry is heading into a tighter supply-demand balance in marketing year 2026-27 (October-September) as El Niño-linked dry weather threatens fresh fruit bunch yields just as the country ramps up its B15 biodiesel mandate, according to a new US Department of Agriculture oilseeds and products update. The report, released July 1, 2026, warns that MY 2026-27 palm oil production is expected to moderate after strong output in MY 2025-26, with policy-driven biodiesel demand set to absorb more of the available supply and slow stock accumulation. Read more from @EnergySPG: okt.to/KMZRg9

From @SPGlobalRatings: Asia-Pacific's rated airports are well equipped to pull through their current rough spot. Jet fuel prices may remain elevated after surging to a record high in April 2026. But we believe Asia-Pacific's flight hubs have sufficiently strong fundamentals to see through this jolt. Read more: okt.to/KlJkms

@SPGlobalRatings expects rated banks in North America to perform well over the next year, but downside risks to the economy could pose challenges--particularly if unemployment, inflation, or interest rates rise. Banks continue to generate solid earnings with healthy balance sheets, and we have almost no negative outlooks on the banks we rate in the region. After the failures of certain regional banks in 2023, rated banks generally strengthened their balance sheets, reduced interest-rate risk, and improved earnings. Get more insights: okt.to/5yl6fX

The European jet fuel forward curve has softened significantly from the all-time highs seen in the wake of the Middle East war, as the market now expects an oversupplied summer with lukewarm aviation demand. Platts, part of @EnergySPG, assessed the Northwest Europe jet CIF cargo financial for July at $981.75/metric ton on June 30, down from the highs of $1,694.25/mt seen on March 30, suggesting increasingly bearish sentiment for the summer. The jet CIF NWE cargo financial for August has also dropped from the March 30 high of $1,507.50/mt to $968.25/mt on June 30. Get more insights: okt.to/Mv1RDu

The data center industry is undergoing rapid transformation, as seen in significant changes in the sector's dynamics over the past few years. Once characterized by relatively small, long-term contracted facilities with investment-grade tenants and fully mitigated construction risk, today's project finance data centers have evolved into massive complexes, sometimes exceeding 2 gigawatts capacity. Alongside this growth, the risk landscape has shifted, introducing new challenges such as construction, operational, refinancing and, increasingly, reletting risks. The latter risk, in particular, has generated a considerable amount of inquiry from market participants, especially regarding @SPGlobalRatings' assessment of it from a ratings perspective. Read more: okt.to/lL758X

From @SPGMarketIntel: One year ago, US President Donald Trump enacted sweeping budget legislation that significantly accelerated the federal government's phaseout of key Biden-era renewable energy incentives. The law, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, gave wind and solar power developers just 12 months to lock in valuable tax credits by starting construction. Developers that meet the July 4 deadline have four years to bring their facilities to fruition, while those that miss it must place their projects into service by the end of 2027. Read more: okt.to/nEj2XT

From @SPGlobalRatings: Digital-native neobanks are ready to shed their newcomer status and forge a new financial services landscape. In a diverse field, the most successful neobanks have proven their profitability and become serious competitors to incumbent banks. The convergence of smartphones and e-commerce began to reshape customer expectations in the 2010s. Smartphone adoption transformed banking into an “always-online” experience, replacing costly, branch-based client interactions with intuitive, real-time mobile apps. Simultaneously, the e-commerce boom drove the demand for fast, frictionless digital payments. Consumer preference shifted toward convenience and transparency, exposing the limitations of traditional banks. With their mobile-first, low-cost, app-based models, neobanks and adjacent fintech offerings began to flourish. Read more: okt.to/kE17DQ

S&P Global today announced a new Market Intelligence operating model, creating two focused verticals—Kensho Data & Platforms and Enterprise Solutions—to better serve customers and accelerate innovation in an AI-driven market. Read more: okt.to/fRApHr

From @SPGlobalRatings: Our outlook for global banks remains steady, with broad ratings stability anticipated over the rest of this year and into 2027. As of June 20, 2026, 82% of our bank ratings were on a stable outlook, while a further 13% had a positive outlook or were on CreditWatch positive. Get more insights: okt.to/D06Vpl

From @SPGlobalRatings: El Niño--the cyclical warming of sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific--influences weather patterns, and together with La Niña (the cooling phase) forms the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Cycle. A stronger-than-average El Niño increases global temperatures and exacerbates extreme weather events like drought and flooding, which can cause damage and disruption to companies' operations, assets, and supply chains. The likelihood of one developing between July and September has increased to 80% from 40% between May and July, with a 90% chance of it lasting until at least November, according to the WMO. Read more: okt.to/L63Wc7

Global private equity and venture capital firms are increasingly betting on large AI funding rounds, which may expose limited partners to unintended concentration risk. Private equity-backed unicorn rounds — funding rounds worth at least $1 billion — totaled $179.33 billion in the first quarter. This accounted for nearly 86% of the aggregate amount raised by AI companies through funding rounds in the first quarter, according to @SPGMarketintel data. Read more: okt.to/3yeLtM

From @SPGlobalRatings: Asia-Pacific banks remain in reasonably good shape. This is despite persistent negative market events, including the Middle East war and stubborn inflation in many jurisdictions. A high portion (92%) of Asia-Pacific bank ratings are on stable outlooks, reflecting our view that steady rating trends will persist over the next 12-24 months. Read more in the Global Banking Outlook 2026 – Midyear Update: Asia-Pacific. okt.to/0GLohp