@VladTheInflator Yep, the house of cards is coming down and it won’t be pretty
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Scott Blazius
98 posts
Scott Blazius
@SacRegionHomes
Real Estate Agent within the Greater Sacramento Region of California. Lic# 01490311
Folsom, CA Katılım Mart 2025
63 Takip Edilen21 Takipçiler
As someone entrenched in this Forest products/lumber industry, I can confirm the sentiment in below's post:
StockMarket.News@_Investinq
🚨 Lumber prices just hit their lowest in a year. Even with tariffs and tight supply, buyers vanished. History says housing leads the cycle and right now, it’s pointing down. (a thread)
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@VladTheInflator Shouldn't that house pymt also include PMI since the DP is under 20%? If so, then the mo pymt would be even higher.
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Anyone using solely price is a fucking moron
Median household income in North Port is $66,400/yr.
At a 28% debt ratio this means they can afford a $1549/mo mortgage payment or a $275,000 house with 10% down (median)
So no, its no where NEAR fairly valued.
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1
North Port, Florida. Getting closer to fairly valued. Once the green line crosses below the grey line, it's a "buy signal".
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@SacAppraiser Well, your data and charting abilities speak volumes as to your worth in the industry... well deserved.
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Just said yes to a speaking gig in Denver in a few months. Very excited. That's talk number 55 for the year. I'm incredibly grateful for the opportunities.
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I agree! And for Sacramento region, that would be about a $425k house price based on Sac median income of $100k/yr. So, that means we got about 12-15% more reduction in prices to go... (and it's needed!)
@VladTheInflator
@SacAppraiser
Darth Powell@VladTheInflator
At 6.5% interest, a median household earning $83,000/year can afford a home priced around $270,000, assuming: 10% down 1.25% property tax 0.5% insurance 30-year fixed mortgage 28% PITI debt-to-income ratio
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@SacAppraiser @bayeagle415 I agree Ryan... different fundamentals. But, the lack of sales is a crash in itself so-to-speak.
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@bayeagle415 That would be such a big increase. I don’t know that we can get up that high right now in light of sellers holding onto low rates and a lack of distressed stuff hitting. The last time we saw 10,000 listings was in 2010, and we also saw it in 2007 and 2008.
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The number of listings has grown almost 40% since last year. Part of this growth is from more sellers listing their homes, but a big chunk is from lower buyer demand. When buyers back off, it makes the pile of active listings grow since listings are staying on the market.
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@SacRegionHomes I like this, but I’m also very aware of government intervention and a fascination with stimulus. Hard to let the market do what it needs to do. It just feels very broken right now. Unreal that we aren’t even back to 2019 listing levels yet.
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@SacAppraiser I'm so glad you said that! I couldn't agree more!! We need to stop with manipulated rates so the true market fundamentals can 'play out' naturally. The median price should reflect what the middle class can afford monthly using no more than 35% of income to pymt (and 10% dwn).
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@SacRegionHomes Yes, that's my concern. It's like a temporary solution. Don't get me wrong. I want more buyer participation. I'd just rather see more pressure on prices to soften.
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@SacAppraiser Do you mean you don't want lower mortgage rates, since it'll pump the market again, perpetuating the unaffordability?
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@SacRegionHomes I am all about health. I think this is really positive news. My concern is the gap between supply and demand really isn’t all that wide. What we don’t want to see is much lower rates close this gap.
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Scott Blazius retweetledi
BREAKING: US household debt jumped +$185 BILLION in Q2 2025, to a record $18.39 trillion.
This puts total household debt up +$592 billion in 12 months.
The surge was driven by mortgage debt, which rose +$131 billion in Q2, to a record $12.94 trillion.
Credit card debt rose +$27 billion, to $1.21 trillion, just shy of an all-time high.
Student and auto loans climbed +$7 billion and +$13 billion, to $1.64 trillion and $1.66 trillion, respectively, both hitting records.
Americans are piling on debt.
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@SacAppraiser @nbirtcil agreed. (borrower is slave to the lender)
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@nbirtcil I'm sure lots of things can help. Prices coming down would be an ideal solution if possible. Not a fan of beyond 30 years personally. I get it though.
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Lower mortgage rates would help energize the housing market, but it's also a temporary solution for affordability. It's like going on vacation when a relationship is struggling. Yeah, it feels good for the weekend, but there are deeper issues still needing to be addressed.
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@SacAppraiser Couldn't agree more! For the sake of Gen Z, I hope rates are not manipulated, so that prices can revert to the mean (i.e. so they'll line back up with median incomes).
On avg, mortgages should never be above 40% of household incomes... not healthy!
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@SacAppraiser yep... sooner and sharper than last year even... will be interesting to see if the drop continues instead of the leveling off.
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A sharper change? Here's a look at the percentage of properties selling above the original price during various years in the Sacramento region. The blue line is 2025, and the trend really departed from the pre-2020 norm (red line) over the past couple of months.
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Any of these color combos would be great for your home's #exteriordesign. #homeguide
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@VladTheInflator correct... it was 'sub-prime' CDOs, synthetic CDOs, traunchs, leveraging, derivatives, head-in-the-sand rating agencies, etc etc etc...
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Reminder, PRIME borrowers caused the GFC, not subprime
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