Samuel Ramani

Excellent article by my RUSI colleague @BurcuAOzcelik on the impact of UAE Israel cooperation on the bilateral relationship and the broader regional order

Azerbaijan and the US began technical talks on the TRIPP corridor energy projects The Iran War exposed Azerbaijan to insecurity with the Nakhchivan drone attack but the Middle Corridor's cachet has grown as an alternative supply route to the Strait of Hormuz

From the Kremlin side, we are seeing Deputy PM/energy policy lead Alexander Novak emphasize an oil "diversion" The delays are expected to resolve themselves in a matter of weeks, seeing indications from Kazakh sources that normal flows could resume in June

Kazakhstan is almost certainly frustrated with this situation Publicly discussing technical problems engendered Ukrainian strikes while privately regretting revenue losses from a route that they have invested more in since 2023

Kazakh oil via the Druzhba pipeline is being blocked to Germany Russia is citing technical problems for the disruption This mirrors Gazprom's past use of mechanical failures as a guise for weaponizing gas exports to Europe

Araghchi went to Oman, the other key interlocutor between the US and Iran, before returning to Pakistan No sign that this will immediately move the US towards sending representatives to Islamabad and Trump appears to be articulating a preference for direct diplomacy

BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is back in Pakistan

This article effectively articulates from a Turkish perspective what levers that Ankara might use against Israel in the event of an intensified conflict middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-wh…

In practical terms, there has been a cutoff of Turkey-Israel strategic investments/official commerce Energy remains an exception to this An escalation of tensions between Turkey and Israel puts the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into focus, a cutoff is a scenario to consider

Tensions are soaring between Turkey and Israel This fault-line grew incrementally during Erdogan and Netanyahu's respective tenures A key post-Iran War cleavage in the Middle East

France and Greece will also hold talks on the Strait of Hormuz reopening Greek shipping is playing a discreet but interesting role in keeping oil transit afloat in the Iran War environment bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

During the height of Eastern Mediterranean tensions in 2020-21, France and Greece signed a security agreement It also got Rafales and French frigates to be interoperable with the Greek military Macron is visiting Greece towards the end of this week to extend it

BREAKING: France and Greece renew their defence pact for 5 years

While Israel periodically framed Lebanon as unrelated to the Iran War, the correlation between Hormuz opening and the truce challenged that narrative The US also sees Lebanon as related to the conflict resolution process

Aside from the Hormuz skirmishes today, Lebanon remains a key sticking point Israel remains determined to entrench itself in south Lebanese territory for security buffer reasons Hezbollah insists on a full Israeli withdrawal to UN recognized borders

BREAKING: Pakistani sources indicate that new US-Iran negotiations are likely to be held next week

The Houthis were delayed entrants to the war perhaps due to domestic factors and Iran's desire to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure card as an untapped escalation tool They entered partially in late March but are still on exercising their full disruptive potential

BREAKING: The Houthis say that they are on "high alert" against US-Israeli attacks on Yemen

The article highlights Turkey's multi-faceted investment co-option strategy in the era of the Iran War aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4…

The 2018 debt crisis and years of prior slowdown transformed the image of Turkey from a dynamic emerging market to a country in economic turmoil Erdogan wants to reverse that narrative and has framed the pandemic aftermath as a precedent/starting point for Turkish recovery

Turkey is trying to promote itself as a key beneficiary of the Iran War's disruptions to Gulf commerce Erdogan held a meeting with 40 CEOs to burnish Istanbul's image as a global financial hub Istanbul airport is also positioning itself as a safer transit nexus