Sam

@dirtygreenpaper - not a semis. You will rarely see non-AI non-space tech rallying the bull market. Diversification just mean you are going to underperform at the moment

$rddt +70% yoy rev growth 1 million in capex Ad dollars per user grew +40% They will renegotiate the data licensing deal next year S&P inclusion a given at this point 2 billion in cash and almost no debt Young founder Ceo What is there not to like? NFA

The play for last two weeks - all semis falls in first two days of week , put to call oi and volumes spikes and then rest of the week completely reversed and attain a new high

@GrindeOptions Not at all, many great names with pretty good recent earnings and guidance struggling hard in bull market

SaaS companies are not getting the respect and the love especially when it comes to $RDDT.

$RDDT drops everyday with news or no news

@cyberprince_rwo The reason for such crash is while revenue growing they are not profitable and concern around safety

looks great. easy position to manage from my entry earlier today. out on taking of the recent lows or erratic price action. monitoring the situation $RBLX

@ObedientBread Tesla might be next $PYPL , if focus shift to spacex

For people claiming I don’t understand PE ratios… Even if Tesla eventually does: • $100B/year from robotaxis at 30% margins = $30B profit • $50B/year from Optimus at 20% margins = $10B profit That’s ~$40B in additional earnings from two massively optimistic assumptions. At a ~$1.7T valuation, Tesla would STILL trade at ~42x earnings on its current valuation before considering execution risk, competition, regulation, dilution, or the core auto business slowing. That’s how much future perfection is already priced into $TSLA.

@Akshat_World Well, I still see more growth from Indian stock market in the future than US. Indian market is compressed while US inflated. We all know how it will end it just matter of time

Going forward, Indian investors are going to track US indices more closely. They will adjust for INR depreciation. And, then finally calculate their returns. These things were almost never done. An entire generation of investors were brainwashed by fund managers/podcasters on how: 25K investment created 25 Crores in X years. That's the only math that ever mattered. Basically a hypothetical retirement in la-la land. But, the dramatic fall of INR. And, the incredible underperformance of the Indian Stock Market has made people more aware of the ground reality. It has also indicated that there are other (maybe better!) markets to invest. There are going to be a massive changes in how Indians invest (especially in equities) over the 4-5 years. The wave is already underway.

@HeidingOut The stock will react but slowly. I am skeptic about durability of 75% margin. Even a small correction in margin can hit the balance sheet and sentiment harder

Blows out earnings $NVDA, does a 25x dividend increase, and an $80B stock buy back and the stock pulls back 3.5%. $NVDA

@bocchitheSTONK @YodaStockInvest My rule of thumb is never sell an option. I have made decent money by buying when premium is cheap. But so far selling option has negative net results.

statistically speaking, at current valuation levels, the s&p has a 10-year forward expected return of zero (negative in real terms) - so you will probably need alpha not just high beta but there are always ways to make money even in a bear market iv will be elevated so selling options for example

Do you think the market is overvalued today? Moving towards the 4th year in a row with DOUBLE DIGIT returns, which has RARELY happened. So far, AI prospects have been the explanation.

@jzrdan Layoffs across tech is not surprising. Intuit explicitly said that they want to reduce decision layer that implies middle management will be impacted disproportionately. We no longer need a manager for every 5-7 people.

My first feelings on $INTU is that this company will survive AI, but expect it to take a massive chunk of their business. The news about the 17% staff layoff did make my question whether it was a positive or a negative sign of things to come. I think with the revenue growth dropping to 10% now, it’s clear the staff reduction is to try and counter some of the lost future business imo. I’m a big fan of the SAAS sector revival but there are definitely better options out there than this name. The problem is the products they offer are simply the most vulnerable to AI. They were relying heavily on customers sticking with them out of ease. They’ve already admitted customer spending is tightening… that’s a major worry! It’s probably not a terrible buy here but don’t expect this company to return anywhere near to historic valuation.

@PabloDBCapital You are not alone. You can compares APP earnings with ARM and you will see APP is a stronger company but still ARM is ripping and APP grinding

I’m frustrated because I see a company like $APP and see where it’s trading. I just think WHY. You have the most competent, smart and well spoken founder on the planet. The business is top notch and highly profitable. We all love it so much. Getting railed by algos & hedgies takes a toll on a man.

@Mr_Derivatives How do you come up with $360K avg severance package?

$META Yes another round of layoffs to those 8,000 employees. But the average severance package is around $360,000 + 1.5 yrs of health insurance. So it’s not THAT bad…

@RealJGBanks I mostly agree with it and have been holding long positions on energy. I also believe by 2028-2030 some softwares will see strong bounce back as there are challenges with AI such as safety, security, reliability and reproducibility - software could fill some of these gaps

Those who follow me will be able to RETIRE in the next 5 years. You must know how the AI cycle will be built out and positioned early. This is how the next decade builds out: 2026–2027: AI demand accelerates. Capital floods into: AI chips, memory, infrastructure, power, and data capacity. AI: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL Memory: $MU $SNDK $WDC AI Infrastructure: $VRT $SMCI $NBIS $IREN 2028–2030: Power demand becomes the biggest story in the market. The world races to upgrade grids, secure materials, and build domestic supply chains. Energy Grids: $VRT $ETN $PWR $HUBB Electrification: $ALB $SQM $TE $GEV Copper/Grid: $FCX $TECK $SCCO Rare Earths: $MP $CRML $USAR $TMRC Uranium/Nuclear: $UUUU $SMR $OKLO 2030+: The applications layer scales globally. Robotics, autonomous systems, defense tech, and the Space Economy become critical infrastructure. Robotics: $TSLA $SYM $PATH Autonomous Mobility: $ACHR $JOBY Defense: $LMT $NOC $KTOS $AVAV Space Economy: $RKLB $ASTS $LUNR $PL $BKSY Most people will be lost. I will help you position for an entire economic future.

@dirtygreenpaper I will wait for dust to settle and then buy. Some of the recent dumps are 20-30% up

$INTU At this point it doesn't matter what the results are. Any SAAS will dump 10% minimum when they report earnings. NFA.

@CliftonSellers To me it reduces the gap between thinking and execution

I could be COMPLETELY WRONG but I think AI is going to make a lot of people lose the ability to think and the will to work (basically make people dumb and lazy) That being said, I DO believe the future belongs to the ones who value taste, authenticity, and problem solving

@rickjeff78 If they see demands still outpacing supply in next 2-3 years they would invest in improving capacity but instead they are offering dividends and buy back. Need to be careful from here

When companies are boosting a dividend by 25x, they hitting their ceiling on growth. The $NVDA earnings are a disaster for the AI trade and overall market.

@rdd147 Yeah, it sounds fishy to me too. I am not sure what is their forward two year outlook about GPU demands and pricing power

$NVDA announcing it will buy back 1.5% of shares is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.

I invested in $DDOG with conviction in March at its low and it is 100% up. I keep investing in software as I believe agentic AI will not replace softwares completely instead they will depends on it to solve problem and software multiple has already been compressed

@abhilohani20 @binyaameengori @saxena_puru Google also reported unrealized gain from equity that must be coming from increased valuation of Waymo or Anthropic.

@binyaameengori @saxena_puru Yes real revenue. Google invested $100 billion in Anthropic and they used that money to buy cloud services. Both of them shows $100 billion revenue on books. Actual money made zero. But $200 billion AI revenue.

If history is any guide, the AI trade will likely end in an epic bubble within 1-2 years. No party goes on forever and the hangover will also be equally severe.

I also have noticed that RDDT goes through fear-mongering and pump phases. In October there was similar case that OpenAI has stopped attributing traffic to RDDT