Samir Kerbage

Cripto rendeu +45% em 5 anos CDI rendeu +78% Mistura 40% de um com 60% do outro e rebalanceia Resultado: +85% Mais que cripto. Mais que CDI. Os dois juntos bateram os dois separados Isso tem nome: Shannon's Demon — o prêmio de rebalanceamento Claude Shannon (o pai da teoria da informação) demonstrou que se você mistura um ativo volátil com um estável e rebalanceia periodicamente pra manter a proporção fixa, o retorno do portfólio supera a média ponderada dos dois ativos Por quê? Porque o rebalanceamento te OBRIGA a fazer o que todo investidor sabe mas ninguém faz: Cripto subiu 50%? Vende parte e compra CDI (realiza lucro) Cripto caiu 40%? Vende CDI e compra cripto (compra barato) Sistematicamente. Sem emoção. Sem timing Quanto mais volátil o ativo, maior o prêmio. E cripto é o ativo mais volátil do mercado — o combustível perfeito pro Shannon's Demon É exatamente o que fazem o Hashdex 20 e o Hashdex 40: • Hashdex 20: 20% do índice NCI (Nasdaq Crypto Index) + 80% CDI • Hashdex 40: 40% NCI + 60% CDI Nos últimos 5 anos: Hashdex 40: +85% Hashdex 20: +80% CDI: +78% HASH11 (cripto puro): +45% O mix rebalanceado bateu os dois componentes sozinhos Desde dez/2019 a história completa: NCI puro: +689% Hashdex 40: +313% Hashdex 20: +177% CDI: +86% "Mas o NCI rendeu mais isolado" Sim. Mas com -70% de drawdown no caminho. Quem aguentou sem vender? Quase ninguém O Hashdex 40 entregou +313% com Sharpe de 0,61 e 23% de vol. O cripto puro tem Sharpe negativo e 55% de vol A gestão passiva da Hashdex nesse produto é impecável — tracking preciso do NCI, rebalanceamento sistemático, zero surpresa Volatilidade é feature, não bug. Shannon provou isso nos anos 60. A Hashdex implementou fonte: MCP - Mais Retorno

The Fund, which is an ETP, is not a mutual fund or any other type of investment company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and is not subject to regulation thereunder. The fund is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Please read the prospectus before investing. Distributed by Paralel Distributors LLC. Hashdex and Paralel Distributors are unaffiliated. To learn more about $NCIQ, and the prospectus: hashdex-etfs.com/NCIQ

@hashdex was founded on one strong conviction: crypto would become an investable asset class, and the best way to invest in it was to own it through a dynamic, evolving benchmark, not by picking winners. That conviction is what drove us to co-develop, along with @Nasdaq , what is now the Nasdaq CME Crypto Index back in 2020, then to launch the first crypto index ETF in Brazil ($HASH11) in 2021, and America's first multi-asset spot crypto ETF ($NCIQ) in 2025. Today, @CMEGroup launches futures on it. The world's largest derivatives exchange now lists a regulated, cash-settled contract tracking a diversified, evolving index of crypto assets. Futures are where price discovery happens, where institutions hedge, and where liquidity gets deep enough for serious capital to participate. And I believe this is a significant milestone for crypto index investing, and for turning crypto into an investable asset class. This morning, I heard Andrew Feldman, CEO of @cerebras, on the @theallinpod talking about timing. People ask him how he got the timing right, and his answer is: by getting it wrong for a decade. That's the only way to get the timing right. That resonated with me... we're 8+ years into making the case for crypto index investing, and it's still a small segment of the market. I believe it can become the largest as more advisors allocate to this space and, rather than picking winners, adopt the same core passive investment framework they've been using for equities. Perhaps being 8 years early might be the only way to get it right.

bitcoin:native is down while the S&P 500 just printed its 19th record high of the year in the same week. Most people read that split as crypto breaking... I read it as a liquidity story. Risk capital is leaving risk assets right now, pulled out by a fearful tape, a worse macro picture with the US-Iran crisis, and an AI narrative vacuuming up every marginal dollar. It's flowing into two places: cash and AI. That's why the S&P 500 can sit at records while almost everything else sells off. That index isn't risk-on. It's AI-on. And that will continue over the next few weeks, with the upcoming record-breaking IPOs from the big AI labs. None of that negative price action touches the crypto fundamentals. On the contrary... adoption and integration continued to strengthen this year, while price and sentiment fell. Even the four-year-cycle crowd reads this as a low in the pattern, not a break in the thesis. So where does price go next? I don't know, and neither does anyone selling you a target. The question worth asking is whether the thesis still holds. I think it's stronger than it's ever been. This gap between price and fundamentals is a big opportunity for patient investors.

The most interesting move in crypto last week came from an asset almost no advisor had on their radar. Stellar (stellar:native ). DTCC — the clearing utility at the center of U.S. securities markets, custodying over $114 trillion — picked it as the first public blockchain to carry tokenized assets onto an open ledger. The token repriced sharply on the news. $XLM is a small constituent of the @Nasdaq CME Crypto Index. A rounding error next to bitcoin’s weight. If you were building a crypto allocation by conviction, you almost certainly wouldn’t have owned it. Through a rules-based index, you did… without having to predict that DTCC would validate Stellar’s rails. This is the part investors push back on. “It’s mostly bitcoin — why carry the long tail at all?” Because that’s where the asymmetry sits. Those assets are small by market cap, so their weight is small — limited drag if they fade out. But if one grows into its target market, the methodology lets it earn its way up… Winners get bigger, Losers drop out. And no one has to call it in advance. Same week, ethereum:native is taking heat from its own community over the Foundation’s direction. Telling, for anyone who assumed smart-contract platforms were winner-take-all and Ethereum had already won. FWIW I’m optimistic Ethereum works through it… but the whole point of an index is that you don’t have to agree with me. On June 1 the index reconstituted and added bitcoin cash. The point isn’t bitcoin-cash:native , but that the rules keep working… the set has grown from 2 assets to 8, mostly as U.S. regulatory clarity made more assets eligible. As the market matures, we think that set keeps expanding. Boring, disciplined, rules-based. That’s the edge.

@capitao_cripto @superteam @SolanaFndn Sure thing, send me a DM and we can talk about it.

Samir, I know you from Finclass You would be an invaluable addition to prepare Brazilian Teams to Solana’s global hackathon We receive a lot of great minds like yours to lecture quick workshops in Solana House (São Paulo) Each @superteam is a @SolanaFndn initiative to expand Solana’s ecosystem with local talents In Brasil, we are @SuperteamBR and work under the Foundation’s guidance We help builders ship applications, score on global hackathons and connect them with VCs Last year @cloak_ag was accelerated by @colosseum with $250.000. They now live with us in Solana House in São Paulo and keep shipping as an inspiration to other builders It would be awesome to get you up to speed in Solana ecosystem and working closely with you

The petrodollar ran the global monetary system for 50 years. The GENIUS Act might be the blueprint for the next one. 🧵

The petrodollar was oil-backed demand for U.S. treasuries. The cryptodollar is internet-backed demand for U.S. treasuries. Same structural function, completely different rails

In our 2026 Crypto Outlook, we projected stablecoins growing from $295B to over $500B this year... with a path to $2T by 2028. The ECB sees it — they're alarmed by the cryptodollar, but still resisting the technology instead of embracing it. That tells you where the momentum is.

@AriDavidPaul 🎯

In short: no. I was a wall st market maker 15 years ago, explicitly exploiting inefficiencies in products like ETFs. Market makers absolutely do “game the system” in all sorts of ways, but for liquid products like BTC ETF, their actions mostly have the effect of adding meaningful but small costs to consumers; it doesn’t meaningfully change the asset price. For example, market makers may manipulate the price to run stop limit orders. But that’s typically on an intraday timeframe. So they might run an asset like MSFT or BTC 2% in a weak market to trigger stops, then a few seconds or minutes later, the price is mostly back to where it was before. I.e. the price manipulation activities are typically small price moves, made and reverted quickly. Why is BTC down? Because OGs sold tens of thousands of coins, and not enough people wanted to buy them. There are rare exceptions where wall street manipulates an asset in major ways longer term, but this is quite rare because it’s very risky and not as easy as it looks to profit. 99% of the time that an asset isn’t moving like you want and people are crying “manipulation”, it’s best to embrace the cognitive dissonance, avoid the “easy way out” of blaming manipulation, and work to improve your predictive models to better match reality. 1% of the time it really is manipulation as the primary factor. Lastly - everything I’ve written only applies to *short* manipulation. Manipulating stuff *higher* (including bitcoin) happens all the time across many assets.

Everyone says bitcoin dumps at 10AM every day. I pulled the data, and it's not true. Since Jan 1, IBIT's cumulative return in the 10:00–10:30 window is +0.9%, and in the 10:00–10:15 window it's –1%. Noisy, not a systematic dump. More interesting: the performance pattern in both windows closely tracks the Nasdaq's. The "10AM dump" is just broad risk-asset repricing. The narrative is wrong.

Not true. When BTC drops overnight, the same hedgers buy at the open — you just don’t notice because it confirms the price direction you expected. The pattern looks sell-only because BTC rallied more during Asia sessions than US hours through most of 2025. And even so, just 50-60% of the days open with a drop, the theoretical expected is 50%, so nothing out of the ordinary. There’s also a subtler effect: even on flat nights, time decay (charm) shifts market makers delta. In a call-heavy market that means selling a small amount of hedge every morning just because a few hours passed.

@SamirKerbage @krugermacro @kale_abe Except there is no 10am surge, only 10am slam.

Lol so to re-cap the Jane Street stuff - Same people caused UST depeg and Luna collapse and killed hundreds of people - Have been selling BTC every day on leverage massively 10am for like a year - have been buying silver and gold with the proceeds on leverage - massively wiping out retail in both directions - Now getting sued - Stopped the algo for one day BTC up massively Alts soaring Wow

@LarkDavis If you hedge (buy) with futures, someone needs to sell that position to you. That someone also needs to hedge, and will have to buy bitcoin. There’s no Bitcoin printing in regulated derivatives. For every long interest there needs to be a corresponding short position.

TL;DR: ETFs pour billions in → you think BTC moons. Reality: Jane Street & APs create your shares, hedge with futures for free forever (A loophole in the system), buy zero spot BTC. Inflows are fake, price discovery broken. That’s why we are still waiting for 150k. Yup, they are probably telling us, don't hate the player, hate the game.

@krugermacro @kale_abe Players need to delta-hedge their options exposure using Bitcoin ETFs at market open. If prices went up overnight, they need to sell, if prices went down, they need to buy. That’s basic price formation working, no manipulation.

Kale, if that is manipulation I'm a penguin. Stocks open at 930 EST. This is when the most significant liquidity enters the market. Large players often prefer to execute at times when liquidity is thicker. Not to mention correlation algos. It is to be expected for dumping to happen right after the open if in a downtrend.

@krugermacro 100%! FWIW the Reg SHO improves price formation.

This is yet another viral and flawed conspiracy theory. Basis traders buy spot and close the arb. Whether the spot is bought by the AP or the basis trader, the net demand on BTC spot is identical. This piece concludes that APs "suppress the integrity of the price discovery". It implies that if a buy doesn't happen on exchange, the price discovery is compromised. This is false. Price discovery is simply the process of finding the equilibrium price where supply meets demand. APs and basis traders close the gap between the ETF, futures, and spot and are the engine of price discovery. Too many doomer narratives and conspiracy theories looking for villains circulating right now. Historically, that's the kind of sentiment you see at bottoms.

@1914ad Turns out understanding market structure is indistinguishable from AI if you’ve never read a prospectus.