Samir Shah

Market and oil crashes have always been directly correlated. If the Iran escalation is the trigger, then counterintuitively oil should fall to $50 over "growth fears" and economic lockdowns. The real risk here is what happens after that scenario. With Powell still the head of the Federal Reserve until May 15, the obvious move in the face of a crash would be quantitative easing (QE) like 2020. The problem with that is the liquidity being printed would occur when there's a 32% energy supply shortfall. So instead of QE fixing the economic problem, it would make it significantly worse by funneling the liquidity into the largest oil price spike in our lifetimes. As I've said before, given all the U.S. energy blockades and destruction of refineries in Russia, Australia, South America, etc. I believe starving the world of oil is the entire plan to cause a global sovereign debt crisis. By creating a massive oil shortage, the U.S. destroys growth & sucks all the Dollars out of the global economy, back into the United States. This creates a scenario where countries must sell their U.S. treasuries significantly below face value in order to continue financing their debt. Oil and the Dollar $DXY have historically been inversely correlated, but this shock could be engineered similar to 2022 where the both oil and the Dollar head to 160 at the same time.