Samit Vartak CFA

Pleased to release our latest newsletter. I have presented analysis to evaluate current sentiments and ground reality. I have rarely seen such a big divergence between the two. Hope you find some value. sageoneinvestments.com/sageone-invest…

Link to today’s interview on NDTV Profit. Short term market movements or how events play out are impossible to predict. India has many wonderful entrepreneurs who are tirelessly working towards creating world class companies. Much easier to find such businesses and betting on them. @niraj_shah Indian Markets Bottoming Out? Market Expert Reveals What To Buy Now youtu.be/J0J1tLFpCz4?si… via @YouTube

@amangpta01 That can continue. Only work commute will be good enough. Oil is very sensitive to even small incremental demand increase or decrease

@SamitVartak What will be the impact on the 'going out' industry, travel, dining, public transport services? Will the savings on fuel and currency offset the negative impact on these professions?

Given that oil price is the biggest impact India and many other countries are facing today because of the war, a coordinated effort to reduce fuel usage may help reduce major impact. During COVID the world went into a complete shut down and oil prices had dropped to below $20 and futures had crashed to -$37 in April 2020. Maybe we can introduce partial work from home and keep industrial activities open, and I am sure this itself (if done globally) will help correct oil prices significantly. For India will help our trade deficit as well as lower pressure on our currency in addition to lowering input costs for many industries thereby reducing impact on profitability. COVID helped us develop and test technologies and platforms that made work from home easy and this may be a very good time to use them until war uncertainties remain. @narendramodi @nitin_gadkari @nsitharaman

@Udit_Kr_Sahu @safalniveshak safalniveshak.com/books/

@SamitVartak @safalniveshak Where I can find this book ?

One more wonderful book by @safalniveshak with compilation of gems from practitioners on various key aspects of successful investing. I was fortunate to contribute a chapter. Congratulations on the book Vishal and all the very best.

Just watched this old 2017 video of @SamitVartak sir. Extremely valuable insights. Truly a paisa vasool video. Must watch. youtube.com/watch?v=-H_0xZ…

Looking forward to the conversation

Earnings growth picture for Dec'25 quarter vs Dec'24 quarter. Wtd Avg (growth in sum total earnings) is significantly better for the mid and small cap universe. Small cap has an exceptional earnings from Kiri Ind with 5000 cr plus (vs 177 cr year ago) which skews the growth much higher than normal. If you remove that, the wtd avg growth is 14.9%. Median growth reduces influence of such outliers or exceptional items and hence gives a better directional picture. Over all growth is good but nothing exceptional. I believe we should see much improved growth in the Mar'26 quarter as sharp pick up in economic activity (as covered in my last memo) started in the month of December 2025.

As seen in the table from my latest memo, drawdowns in small caps during the January–March period—measured from the January peak to the February/March trough—are not an exception; they are a recurring feature of market cycles. Just as consistently, these phases have been followed by sharp recoveries once the market establishes a bottom in February or March. Current sentiment is such that investors are overly focused on the negatives, making the environment appear so foggy that positives have become invisible. This fog, as always, will eventually lift. While market bottoms and the depth of drawdowns can never be predicted, it is highly probable that market levels a few months from now will be disproportionately higher. Unfortunately, short-term declines are unsettling for investors, causing many to step aside and miss the eventual strong upswing. In hindsight, this phase will look like an obvious opportunity. But while living through it, investors see only risks and landmines—never the runway for the next flight Post See new posts Conversation

@vineetrjoshi Yes for infra related

@SamitVartak Thanks Samit, Are you seeing positive business momentum in Building material sector as well?

Markets move through extremes on both sides. These extremes are largely driven by sentiment and, at times, reinforced by fundamentals. Currently, Indian equities are experiencing extremely weak sentiment, driven primarily by disappointment over the US trade deal and subdued earnings growth over the past few quarters. However, the September 2025 quarter has shown encouraging signs of earnings growth. The on-ground feedback I am receiving across various domestic businesses is very strong. For many companies, activity has picked up significantly this month. In my career, I have rarely seen such a wide divergence between market sentiment and on-ground business momentum. After a long time, deep value is emerging in several pockets, even though valuations at the overall market level are not cheap. A shift in sentiment will require a trigger. If not a trade deal, strong earnings and supportive management commentary could serve as a meaningful catalyst. Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year and hoping for a far more rewarding 2026!

There is a lot of healthy debate on the recent GDP growth numbers. More stem from the low nominal GDP numbers of 8.7%. Also there are question marks on the National Accounts Statistics data quality. I believe corporate growth provides a good comparison metric with audited numbers. Based on the numbers that I have calculated for the listed companies above market cap of 1500 cr (making around 95% of listed universe mcap), the sales growth for the Sep’25 qtr vs Sep’24 qtr was 10.8%. If I exclude Finance companies, the growth was 11.8%. For PAT, the same growth numbers were 15.0% and 19.9% respectively. I assume sales growth to be more correlated to the nominal GDP growth. The above analysis includes 1127 companies. Our job is to look at all the available data and make our own conclusion of how the economy is doing

finiq.it.com Financial literacy App developed our Son, Dhruv. Request you to create an account, log in and give feedback. Please retweet and spread the good word. Really appreciate your support and guidance 🙏🙏 @VijayKedia1 @vivbajaj @kushallodha548 @safiranand @SejalSud @ChintanParikh10 @manojgupta1979 @LuckyInvest_ARK @SamitVartak @1shankarsharma @Iamsamirarora @MrRChaudhary @Maaachaaa69

Please listen to our amazing fund managers @KshitijKaji and @KothariSatish lay out our stock picking framework youtu.be/pMe3zv3FaaQ?si… via @YouTube

@akshat96jain @pankajtibre @chandraprakash @NileshShah68 @Kuntalhshah @shyamsek You have done a really good job of capturing the core essence of all the presentations. Thank you

Here's a PDF of notes from today's bullet proof event: drive.google.com/file/d/1LFSak3… @SamitVartak @pankajtibre @chandraprakash @NileshShah68 @Kuntalhshah @shyamsek

India Inc needs to dramatically accelerate investment in R&D and Capex . Also the stock market must reward both . Time to create a index of such companies which can be a good indicator of future success. Discounting for market share can’t be the measure to create unicorns.

I’m working on a new book: Letters to a Young Analyst It’s a collection of letters from some of the wisest investors and analysts I know of, as also my own years of stumbling and learning in and from the markets. Lessons also apply to investors. Releasing in Nov. 2025.

Webinar Replay—Aug 22 | Rethinking Risk & Reward: Small/Mid vs Large Caps (2025). Early signs of a new small/mid cycle; balance sheets cleaner, ROE/cash flows stronger. Action lens: bottom-up selection, avoid theme-chasing; watch data centres, defence adjacencies, and infra supply chains. Speaker: Samit Vartak, CFA — Founder & CIO, SageOne Investment Managers Host: Kamal Manocha — Founder & CEO, PMS AIF WORLD Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=Ig1UOR… @SamitVartak #investing #PortfolioManagement #EquityMarkets

Enjoyed my discussion with Kamal at @PMS_AIF_World . These are confusing times for investors. Provided my thoughts on areas of opportunities in India. Rethinking Risk & Reward: The 2025 case of Small/Mid vs Large Caps | Sam... youtu.be/Ig1UORVvLY8?si… via @YouTube