@dampedspring Do you think TGA build up will play a role in risk assets. From your past posts I know you tend to think any correlation, if at all, is a coincidence
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Samrat Ghosh
120 posts
Samrat Ghosh
@SamratG0120
And what he greatly thought, he nobly dared - Homer.
Katılım Ocak 2017
157 Takip Edilen19 Takipçiler
Current update on performance of my AlphaSmartBeta allocation is 23.6% YTD beating BTC as a benchmark by 75Bp with dramatically lower vol. Beating SPX by 1570 bp without being down for the year by more than 2%. Every single trade told to clients real time and visible in markets.
Andy Constan@dampedspring
Update for 2024. DS Alpha 11.2% in 2024. DS Beta 10%. DS AlphaBeta 21.2% which levers a fully allocated beta portfolio with an uncorrelated DS Alpha portfolio constructed with no more than 10% margin. This is my own portfolio and is not meant for anything but Journaling. Also the degen meme trades are not included as they are done for lunch money and fun.
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the moment. Sustained levels is clearly bullish.
On going success by "retail" will also likely result in ongoing or increasing overweight the riskier assets and outperformance of risk vs benchmark. Of course the inter cohort thing can change in either direction on a dime
While I add all this up as fully priced across fundamentals, flow, and positioning the bull case remains totally reasonable. It also would be a huge bullish outcome even at current pricing if Roberts/Barrett reverse trumps tariffs.
Perhaps the best hedge for such an outcome is January OTM
calls on equities and OTM puts on ZB
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Today as equities melt up I wrote down for DS Members the bull case for equities. Open minded exploration of bull and bear cases at all times is my process. Markets are almost always right so a bull case must exist. Here is mine 🧵
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@tanvi_ratna Could they have pumped the stock market and raised huge capital gains tax. In 2021, US raised 9 percent of GDP as capital gains tax , in a typical year it's 3-4 percent. 4 percent of GDP is around 1trio USD in revenue. 1 PCT savings on 9 trio is 90bio USD
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Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.
$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.
One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵
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@INCKerala @realpreityzinta She was one of the very few Bollywood stars who didn't buckle under pressure from the Underworld. Thora to fact check Kar liya hota post se pehle
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Good to know you're managing your own account, unlike other celebs who have handed theirs over to the notorious IT cell.
Thanks for the clarification, @realpreityzinta regarding your loan position. We are glad to accept mistakes if we have made any.
We shared the news as reported by media outlets. According to media outlets which reported this story, ex-employees of New India Cooperative Bank had warned the RBI in a letter they wrote in January 2020 about the corrupt practices that was going on in the bank. In that report, your name along with many others were mentioned. The excerpts from the story is below:
As early as in January 2020, ex-employees of New India Cooperative Bank Ltd had warned the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) about malfunctioning operations and alleged corrupt practices in the Bank. However, RBI failed to take concrete action against the Bank in a timely manner, says a report from IndianCooperative.com.
According to the report, on 29 January 2020, former employees of New India Cooperative Bank sent a letter to the executive director (ED) of RBI's department of regulations. The letter highlighted severe irregularities, financial mismanagement, corruption and unethical practices within the Bank, under the leadership of chairman Hiren Bhanu.
"Before 2010, the Bank focused on small-ticket loans for priority sectors. After Mr Bhanu's entry, corporate loans of up to Rs25 crore were sanctioned without branch managers' knowledge. Major loans turned into non-performing assets (NPAs) within a year, with funds diverted through other banks," the report says.
Further, it says, "Bollywood actress Preity Zinta's Rs18 crore loan was written off without due recovery procedures. Rajhans group received Rs95 crore in loans, while another Rs210 crore in NPAs was regularly sold to Omkara Assets Reconstruction Pvt Ltd (ARC), raising suspicions of fraudulent loan write-offs. A Rs7 crore loan was granted to ACAIPL, a sister concern of Omkara ARC, allegedly without proper due diligence. Loans were approved for Mr Bhanu's associates using inflated valuation reports. Commission agent Manish Simaria facilitated corporate loans and earned huge commissions despite defaulting on an Rs8 crore loan himself.
We are standing with the depositors who lost their savings. If the reports are wrong, we request you to clear the air with proof once for all and raise your voice in their interest too.
Preity G Zinta@realpreityzinta
No I operate my social media accounts my self and shame on you for promoting FAKE NEWS ! No one wrote off anything or any loan for me. I’m shocked that a political party or their representative is promoting fake news & indulging in vile gossip & click baits using my name & images. For the record a loan was taken and FULLY PAID BACK - over 10 years ago. Hope this clarifies and helps so there are no misunderstandings in the future 🙏
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@elonmusk Is it possible to explain in high school physics parlance why it was thought to be not possible and how you solved it, if yes, it would be amazing to know
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@dakshgup I am curious what drives you and team given a sizeable fraction of AI scientists are warning of its potential for catastrophic impact on civilization, and a vast majority of the world's population seems to have no voice in where smart engineers like you are leading the world to
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now that this is on the front page of reddit and my inbox is 20% death threats and 80% job applications, here’s a follow up
- to everyone who is overworked and underpaid at their software jobs esp outside the US, i feel for you, and i’m sorry this struck a nerve. the people that work here had 6-fig 20 hr/week jobs before this, and can go back to them any time.
- it might be hard to believe but there exist people that want this, while a minority. the transparency exists to identify them.
- this way of working isn’t supposed to be forever because it isn’t sustainable. it’s the first year or two of a startup which is like reaching escape velocity. like people said in the comments, as we mature we’ll hire older, more experienced people who have families and can’t work 100 hours a week, and naturally we would adapt like any good organization.
- this is NOT meant to be prescriptive. there are brilliant people who run successful companies full of brilliant people that don’t push themselves this hard. many other started the way we are starting.
- lot of indian hate coming from this post so i want to clarify that i am like this not because im indian but because im san franciscan.
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@PeterSchiff Isn't the US building a bitcoin reserve mean that the US doesn't believe in its own currency? That's a peculiar policy stance to evolve. Especially as President Trump, Musk etc have vowed to make America great again
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The U.S. #NationalDebt just broke $36 trillion, up over $8.2 trillion since #Biden took office. It took 43 presidents 216 years to add the first $8.2 trillion. Biden did it in less than 4. #Trump held the single-term record of $7.8 trilion in debt. Biden has already shattered it.
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@elonmusk The JD Vance clip you shared just a few hours ago is him saying that exact thing - one can hear it and read it too 🤣
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@KamalaHQ What's wrong with you people. Go on Joe Rogan and make your case to undecided voters. You won't buy a single vote by tweeting here.
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NEW AD: Puerto Ricans deserve better than Donald Trump.
Vice President Harris will fight for Puerto Ricans and their families.
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@KamalaHarris Someone please give the Dems a lesson in Indian politics from 2010-2015. The worst part of left's misplaced economic policies are what comes next
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Now is the time to chart a new way forward—to build an America where everyone's work is rewarded and talents are valued, where we work with labor and business to strengthen the American economy, and where everyone has the opportunity to thrive.
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@elonmusk Lol. Good one. I suppose it's better to vote for someone whose favourite topic is size of his hands and greatest contribution to science is curing COVID by ingesting disinfectant
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@metpoliceuk Great job. Meanwhile, not a single suspect identified in 160 areas of London for 3 years in neighbourhood crimes. I really feel safe staying home watching the uninterrupted proceedings in the Parliament!!
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In total, 43 Youth Demand activists were arrested this morning as part of two proactive interventions in Westminster.
The arrests prevented any serious disruption to the State Opening of Parliament, helping to ensure the event took place without incident.
Metropolitan Police@metpoliceuk
There’s a significant policing presence in central London ahead of the State Opening of Parliament. Last week, Youth Demand said they planned to disrupt the event. An hour ago, officers arrested 10 of them in Westminster on suspicion of conspiracy to cause public nuisance. A further 20 to 25 have now gathered in Victoria Embankment Gardens and further arrests are being made.
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@DanielTNiles For $Meta should we be worried about all the cases against them. I can't imagine in any other industry the CEO/company getting away by just saying sorry at a congressional ceremony.
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Today can be filed under “be careful what you wish for.” CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May 2020 which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose, investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the market. This is best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally, the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell 2000 rose (+3.6%).
Looking forward into tech earnings season which starts in earnest next week, with mega cap starting the week after, I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated. I believe today is a warning sign of what could occur if there are any disappointments among the Mag7 due to ROI (return on investment) concerns.
During Q1 earnings season, the Mag7 were on average +4% the day after reporting with only $META down the next day. The group surged another 20% the day after reporting earnings to the close today on 7/11 for a total year-to-date gain of 43%. This upcoming Q2 earnings season could be very different than Q1.
$AAPL is my favorite of the Mag7 given its poor revenue performance over the past three years and likelihood finally for a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle driven by AI.
$META is likely to benefit from upcoming election & Olympics spend. Having said that, they did guide below expectations for Q2 revenue when they reported in Q1 and the stock was hit for 11% the next day.
$MSFT scares me due to my increasing concerns over a potential mismatch in AI investment in Azure versus revenues, despite their relationship with OpenAI (the maker of ChatGPT).
$GOOGL has this mismatch risk as well in Google Cloud but I hope the election and Olympics spend can offset this risk in the second half of the year.
$AMZN also has this mismatch risk in Amazon Web Services, but I believe their total company margin expansion driven by e-commerce & advertising revenue growth will continue.
$TSLA reported an upside surprise to deliveries for the first time in a while, but I just cannot get comfortable with their valuation or the heavy price competition in the EV market right now.
$NVDA is deservedly the poster child for the AI trade. But any issues at any of the big hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft & Google) that report before them is likely to matter more than their own results at least till they report in late August.
In summary, my plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections. As I have written about before, while in the near-term I am concerned about an AI digestion period, I believe the ultimate peak is still several years in the future.
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@dampedspring Powell has been so exceptionally wrong - from his infamous speech in 2021 why inflation should never be higher to his confidence on FED's infallible power to bring down inflation!!!
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@sama So the future is people rendered jobless by AGI to date AGI. How do companies make money off a jobless and childless future for stocks to trade so high!!
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Bumble wants AI to set up dates. ChatGPT wants us to date AI. So the future is people rendered jobless by AGI to date AGI. In that future, how do companies make money for AI stocks to trade so high!!!
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@jasonfurman How does FED's AIT framework play a role in what FED will do if indeed inflation is stuck in 2.5-3.5 range. Thank you.
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To put numbers on it, assuming we get a monthly print of 0.30% in March (reasonable based on CPI and PPI) then hitting the middle of his range will require monthly prints of 0.16% for the remainder of the year--or a 1.9% annual pace for inflation.
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This forecast has the same feature as the transitory forecasts in 2021 did. Specifically, it will only be true if inflation falls below 2% going forward. This is not mean reversion in inflation but in the price level.
Note, that doesn't mean it's wrong.
Jeanna Smialek@jeannasmialek
NY Fed's John Williams slightly revises up his PCE inflation forecast for the year to 2.25-2.5% in a new speech. It was 2-2.25% as of Feb 28. New speech: newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe… Old speech: newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe…
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@Coldwaterhold @MacroAlf Lol. The British empire depended on it's Empire literally, and it collapsed pretty much when they could no longer steal from Indians and Africans and Carribbean people.
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