Red Lightning

@sparkes_dwayne Yeah I think you’re right. Though I don’t think $3000 will be far away.

@Sarge083 i cant type anymore. The* last lithium boom

Some random thoughts on some of the latest lithium news as a I sip my morning coffee. CATL has brought in Chen Zinghe from Zijin as an advisor for it’s mining division. It’s basically CATL saying they are worried that they can’t find enough lithium to meet their massive growth. It’s impressive how fast CATL has grown and you’ve got to applaud the company. However, I think they are leaving it a bit late as I touched on in an old post of mine (link below). I think they’ve underestimated just how difficult it is to find lithium deposits. Economical lithium deposits are rare and very hard to find. They could go years and find nothing. Zijin doesn’t have a great track record at finding deposits, which is rightly so, they are after all miners, not explorers. And it’s not just Zijin. What was the last deposit that RIO found? Or BHP? Or FMG? The majors are terrible at exploration, despite the fact they have very large exploration budgets. Exploration isn’t just about having a big budget. A geologist working for a major for a wage in a cookie cutter position is going to be less hungry to find something than a prospector working for themselves for 0 dollars and funding early exploration themselves. Projects are largely found by individuals, they then get passed into exploration companies, which then get taken out by miners. Basically every (~90%) current lithium mine and the majority of lithium resources (excluding a lot of the Canadian plays) have been mapped and known about for a 100+ years. Most of them were old tin and tantalum mines. Adover, Kathleen Valley, Pilgangoora, Tabba Tabba, Bikitia, Manono, Greenbushes, Mt Marion, etc. were all discovered over 60 years ago, largely by individual prospectors. During the last lithium boom, if you wanted to find lithium, you toggled on/georeferenced the occurrences of old tin and tantalum workings, pegged the ground, and explored off that. Those days are done. Those are our current lithium mines and resources. So 100 + years of mapping and exploring has found the current mines and resources and we are still in a lithium deficit (spod currently at ~$US2400). I agree with @usuallyYJLee , there isn’t enough mapped lithium around to meet his 2030 bull case. Literally all of the Canadian plays would need to come online. So naturally sodium and other battery types will take a portion of the market for this fact alone. Zijin aren’t explorers. They are miners. Huge difference. A lot of countries don’t understand exploration. The idea of putting capital into what could be seen as a gamble is something they don’t get. They are happy to pay a premium for a nice resource, but the idea of spending a fraction of what they pay for a resource on a “gamble” seems silly. I personally think Zijin (and any major) will struggle to find more greenfields lithium. All the easy low hanging fruit deposits are gone. It’s now largely a drilling under cover game. Once you’ve dusted your first 4-5million on drilling, you start to think maybe it’s just easier to buy these things for a premium. Problem is there aren't really many options available. Exploration for lithium has been on a halt for several years and despite spod at a very healthy price of ~US$2400, it still hasn't picked up yet. Better get exploring soon or big trouble. To finish, on a side note, $PLS just hit an all time high! Cheers for reading!

@pies2211 @lionelhutz4prez @KeeperAFL @KeeperAFL and then a long way to 2nd

@lionelhutz4prez @KeeperAFL it's not even close

Would love some feedback here. Which app is best for #AFLFantasy draft leagues?

@DanielGarb UP THE GARB!

A bump on this for this weeks rising star ⭐

@thedraftdoctors Releases a salary cap reveal ep and then packs it up. Don Warnie must have had a word about staying in your lane.

We'll be recording the final Draft Doctors episode next weekend. The whole crew on deck. Questions, comments etc - get em in or forever hold your peace #AFLFantasy #SuperCoach

@TheDraftBible Cooper Lord cbas 👀. Take note sneans.

Here’s what actually mattered from Carlton’s pre season match v Geelong: CARLTON – CBA Splits vs Geelong

@sparkes_dwayne It’s takes like this that make me so happy you’re back.

No coffee today as i spat it out reading the news that Zimbabwe is bringing forward the ban of unprocessed lithium exports, effective immediately. The export of all raw ore and spodumene concentrates is immediately banned. A lot of tonnes about to come out of the supply side. The only producer that doesn't export concentrate is the Arcadia mine by Huayou Cobalt, who have recently commissioned a lithium sulphate plant. The Bikita mine is also set to have a sulphate plant built but to the best of my knowledge it isn't completed yet. Lithium sulphate is an intermediate product between spodumene concentrate and lithium carbonate. Sulphate contains about 12.62 Li which equates to about 27.2% li2O. Compare this to lithium carbonate which contains 40.4% li2O. Why produce sulphate instead of lithium carbonate? Well the answer is quite simple really: Lower capex, less power and water, save on transporting costs of raw ore (more tonnes). Instead of transporting concentrate, you're shrinking it by ~ 4/5 fold. It works well in jurisdictions that are considered unstable. You lower the transport costs and in turn don't have to put in the same capital as you would with a lithium hydroxide/carbonate plant. This year from Zimbabwe alone, i had the following producers doing spodumene concentrate in my supply table: Sabi Star~ 280kt SC6 eq Dison Gwana ~ 100kt SC6 eq Bikita ~ 380kt SC6 eq Kamatavi ~300kt SC6eq Zulu~50kt SC6eq 1.11Mtpa of SC6 equivalent halted. That's about 140kt of LCE. In a tightly balanced market, it could get scary. As I've said before (i really am a broken clock), in 2022 during the boom, 784kt of LCE hit the market and the demand was 854kt of LCE, an 8% deficit. An 8% deficit is what cause the massive spike in lithium price. It was then a 1-3% surplus that caused the massive downturn in prices. Its a very fine balance in this lithium market and small factors could throw it into a deficit/surplus. From what we've seen, small surpluses/deficits cause massive price swings. 140kt of LCE has just come out of the market. Food for thought. Thanks for reading!

@TheDraftBible How many rucks is too many rucks?

The biggest draft mistake isn’t picking the wrong player. It’s drafting without a structure.

@TheDraftBible It’s also about the friends you make along the way

Draft prep isn’t about knowing every player. It’s about knowing what to do when your target gets taken two picks before you.

@TheDraftBible I’m really hoping this can lift my team to glory.

Haven’t started your draft prep yet? We’ve got you covered 👊 thedraftbible.com.au/shop/p/the-dra… 📊 Players split by position 📈 Sorted by average 🧠 Team builder tab for draft night 🙌 Only $5 #KeeperFantasy #AFLFantasy #AFL #DraftStrategy

@thedraftdoctors How dare you

@TheDraftBible @thedraftdoctors

Just wrapped up the Content Creators Mock Draft with the @thedraftdoctors 🔥 Here’s how the team finished up: DEF: R. Laird K. Amon C. Daniel L. Duggan MID: M. Bontempelli H. McCluggage T. Liberatore A. Cerra O. Wines RUC: M. Gawn FWD: G. Miers J. Graham B. Keays E. Langdon Plenty of midfield firepower and a safe ruck anchor. Forwards are a bit thin. Thoughts? 👀 thedraftbible.com.au #AFLFantasy #AFL #DraftStrategy

@TheDraftBible @thedraftdoctors Harley Reid

🎯 NEW RELEASE + GIVEAWAY 🎯 We’ve just launched the Team Analysis built from last season’s CBAs, kick ins and ruck data. To celebrate, we're giving away The Draft Bible 2026 (includes full Team Analysis) To enter: ✅ Follow ✅ Like & RT ✅ Reply: Who is your breakout candidate for 2026

@TheDraftBible I was going to but might just steal your elite one.

@Sarge083 Thanks mate. Running your own this year?

Need a spreadsheet to start your draft rankings? We’ve got you covered 👊 thedraftbible.com.au/shop/p/the-dra… 📊 Players split by position 📈 Sorted by average 🧠 Team builder tab for draft night 🙌 Only $5 #KeeperFantasy #AFLFantasy #AFL #DraftStrategy

@ByElizaReilly @grok what does this article say?

How good is pre-Christmas match sim 🤩 The breakout star and new draftees impressing at West Coast 👉 bit.ly/3MtySu8

@TheDraftBible @thedraftdoctors Good luck Yung Bible

Grand Final is underway against Stevie Fizz himself (!) in the @thedraftdoctors Listener League. Awesome format this year with a lot of great trading.

@TheDraftBible @KeeperAFL But you’ve got no game this weekend? #chol

Who wants early access?

@TheDraftBible Big RuckPig Grundel

Who has been the most improved ruck this year in draft?

@_TheProbst @TheDraftBible @SlyderAFL You’ve missed the jump by a fair bit.

@TheDraftBible @SlyderAFL How does this work

🦊We are through to the next stage of the @SlyderAFL Survivor competition 🦊 Score of 1206 this week. #Slyder #AFLFantasy #AFL #DraftStrategy