Sasstoshi

@phreaktard for vivek specifically, let the dem win

@ryan_x_charles I still like bsv … $archstanton107

@el33th4xor I thought it was you. Isn’t this about your selfish mining scenario?

@el33th4xor The source said you’d get a negative gamma if the modeling was faulty. Who made the model in question ?

This is hilarious. Everyone's favorite crypto-imbecile tried to justify "negative gamma" by citing a source, and the source came in and told him that he was an idiot.

@agrano @PeterRizun @ProfFaustus I’m genuinely curious what the result would be, but don’t have the data set nor the programming to do that. Thanks for your attention

@Sass_toshi @PeterRizun @ProfFaustus From my post: "It doesn’t matter what times you pick - 10 minutes since the last block was mined, totally random, every hour on the hour, your friends’ birthdays, whatever! The expected time until the next block will always be 10 minutes."

New blog post: Empirical explanation for Craig Wright's selfish mining #bitcoin bet andygranowitz.com/2018/04/12/emp…

@agrano @PeterRizun @ProfFaustus Thanks. I think your examples are different than what I’m talking about, which is points in time 5 mins after every block, in cases where the next block has NOT yet been found. (Not solely five minutes after, and not random). I don’t code. Wondering if you could code that one

@PeterRizun @7heAbolitionist Honest question: What if you run the numbers for the following data set: All 2016 block time stamps plus 5 minutes in cases where the next block has not yet been found ? How long til next block? Can someone try ?

@7heAbolitionist It "feels" like if you've been waiting 5 min, a block should be 5 minutes away on average. It is empirically true that if you've been waiting 5 min, a block is still 10 minutes away on average.

Memoryless processes (like Bitcoin mining) are difficult to conceptualize. The fact that a miner gets no closer to a solution regardless of how long he's been mining is counter intuitive. It _feels_ like a block should be 5 min away if we've already been waiting 5 min.

@el33th4xor @PeterRizun In the bet between @PeterRizun and @ProfFaustus, t=0 was not a random point in time. What if you ran numbers for points in time that are block time stamps plus 5 minutes in cases where the next block hasn’t yet been found ? How long til the next block?

Satoshi deeply understood the memory-less nature of Bitcoin mining -- he purposefully built them in. This bet between an expert, @PeterRizun, and someone with lots of degrees illustrates the common layman's misconceptions very well.

Nice writeup on exponential distributions. To the uninitiated, they will seem bizarre: Bitcoin blocks arrive every 10 minutes on average, yet if it has been 10 minutes since the last block, expected time to next block is still 10 minutes. andygranowitz.com/2018/04/12/emp…