サクソバンク証券

The continued surge across metals, especially #gold and #silver, is entering a dangerous phase, in my opinion. In my many years following markets, I have seen this dynamic play out several times across commodities—and occasionally in other asset classes as well. The problem is volatility feeding on itself. As price swings intensify, liquidity thins. Banks and market makers struggle to warehouse risk, especially as their lifeline—the basis between physical and futures—becomes increasingly erratic. When their willingness to quote prices in size fades, liquidity deteriorates and volatility blows out. Does this mean we are close to a blow-off top and ripe for a correction or consolidation? My honest answer is that I do not know. Fear of missing out can drive prices far beyond levels justified by prevailing fundamentals, and timing that turning point is notoriously difficult. What we do know is that risk has risen sharply. The current Average True Range (ATR)—a measure of daily price volatility—has surged to around USD 8.5 in silver and USD 166 in gold. In practical terms, this is the distance a trader would need to allow just to avoid being stopped out by a normal daily move. At these levels, position sizing becomes critical, leverage increasingly dangerous, and the margin for error uncomfortably small.