Scribbles

@BillAckman This was first pitched to me about 10 years ago.

And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.

Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.

@GodelTerminal And everything’s all fucked up.

Stop scrolling. Futures open in 15 minutes.

@RabbiPoupko Several years ago they gave a recipe for “Traditional Jewish Challah Bread” made with milk.

How much does the New York Times know about Judaism? This much 👇

@negligible_cap Interesting. I would have thought flight chaos and cancellation would hurt them, bc people rent cars when they fly places. Still expecting a weak quarter from the weather. Long $htz for the turnaround play.

$HTZ and $CAR are spiking on an article that rental car demand is surging on TSA shutdown Both names have around 50% short interest travelpulse.com/news/car-rail/…

Would you all stop telling us to “Let that sink in”!

@JacobPlieth 5%. Within market.

For those wondering if $MRK might be outbid, here are the deal termination terms from $TERN

@smartertrader Muting everyone who doesn’t know the term points.

MU going to go 150 pts in a week. Soon ….

@A_May_MD Probably, but dilution can be a concern, buyout or no buyout. I'm surmising that this is weighing on the price today.

And then when that happens people will say it’s a sign that offering means no buyout. A claim that has been “disproven” in biotech. Too much reading of “writing on the wall” and too little actual underwriting of the value of the asset. Ultimately that’s what matters and focussing on that will help people avoid the tea leaf reading trades and immolation of option premiums.

$ABVX degen traders dumping the stock on a CNBC article saying exactly what I’ve been saying since the trial hit back in July, and what was already blatantly obvious from the earnings release yesterday. WAITING FOR MAINTENANCE DATA is the ideal negotiating leverage. Read the quote below from the CEO. It could not be more obvious to me that this is the correct strategy. Catalyst wait times don’t get a lot shorter than 3 months in biotech, btw. CHILL. cnbc.com/2026/03/24/abi…

@brrrrgundy It hasn’t even been four weeks yet.

I'm starting to change my tone on the current market environment here a bit. I feel that bulls could step in and things can improve from here, but the key point that I am going to drive home is that this war has potential lasting consequences that were not part of anyone's original Plan A. I am wary of a recession now and prolonged drawdown from ATHs in markets that could last a couple months (think anywhere from now until late summer) as the market digests the new inflationary pressures from the "new normal" crude oil pricing floor - think "higher for longer" on rates due to a shift in structural inflation. It's a simple question of supply and demand. The conflict in Iran has destroyed a sizable portion of the global energy supply that sits in the Middle East. The US is much more self-reliant on energy now than it was in the 1970's, which bodes well for Americans, but I still think this is a global energy shock that will need to be priced in and have lasting economic consequences. The saying "when the missiles fly, it's time to buy" usually works because most modern wars just cause logistical issues (the oil is still there, it just can't move, like what we're seeing with the Straight of Hormuz). However, today's conflict has shifted from supply disruption to destruction. The difference between the current conflict and previous ones is the permanence of the supply shock, and this was not anyone's base case scenario for this war (if I had to guess...). Israel has acted on its own accord and President Trump has even publicly vilified their actions to destroy energy infrastructure, and the missiles continue to fly overnight and we continue seeing energy fields getting targeted. It's tough to be the one to make the call and say "this time is different" - but we've already seen the market not create a V-shaped recovery - this price of oil and petrochemicals affects nearly everything globally, and the global supply has now shrunk meaningfully for the next few years. If you traded 2022, you will remember how terrible that price action was. I am staying extremely patient, and I am considering a scenario for the markets where there won't be any sort of near term capitulation "panic bottom" and this just drags on (Friday's action was not a panic bottom). My current price target for SPX to bottom out (perhaps over the course of the next couple months of summer chop up and down) is near the previous highs at 6,025 - 6,150, which would be a very reasonable 12-14% pullback from ATHs. If this gets materially worse (which I currently doubt) I could see SPX 5,300 trade, but let's not get ahead of ourselves (that would be a true "bear market" 24% pullback). Big picture, I am still bullish for a 1 year horizon, so I'm not tripping out over slowly adding long term exposure into dips. Currently, I am biased as a trader to shorting pops. We got our tradable bounce yesterday, and it could continue higher. For now, I am largely being patient and sticking to faster day trades. I opened a starter in a short again, but considering we can continue higher into SPY 671 (December lows) - I haven't sized this yet (and considering the macro headline volatility). No swings with size for me, and sized down overall.