Sean Peppercorn

@Tombrownlee Amazing Tom, where do we find on BB please?

@MarkOHaire @nickgoff79 When the potential financial benefit if promotion is so large though how big would a fine need to be to put off someone trying it again in the play offs in future years?

@nickgoff79 That’s interesting and certainly how I'd perceive it. A decent fine seems fair, points deductions seem way OTT.

Proposed punishments for “Spygate 2.0” look incredibly excessive. A bloke hiding in the bushes filming training is weird behaviour, obviously wrong and against the rules. But does it really give Saints some huge unfair advantage? Is it really a sophisticated cheating operation that’s altered competitive balance? Meh. Feels massively overblown (though I’m all-in on the drama).

@Tombrownlee Great news Tom, have you had a chance to see how much it improves accuracy vs the model pre normalisation? Or will you have to wait for a large enough sample size to gauge?

After 20 months of development and testing, Player Stats normalisation passed a last round of checking tonight. We will release it ahead of tomorrows games. We are the first service to make it available for sharp bettors, this is a technique available to very few eyes. Normalisation is a technique that quickly addresses changes to player lines after unexpected lineups are announced. If one striker is expected then three start up front that drastically changes the Shots Expectancy of each. The same with fouls, cards, saves etc. You will know when an xStat has been normalised away from the market because you will see "Normalised xStat" in the header after team news when applied.

@nickgoff79 @marmobet @BenStarSports @dogguesser2 @30 Imagine it getting to 6-6 in the 5th set and thinking 'well this couldn't have gone any worse' having no idea what was coming

@marmobet @BenStarSports @dogguesser2 @30 always makes me think someone MUST have sold games in Isner v Mahut

Should you have to win by two clear frames like darts/tennis?

@Tombrownlee Interesting it's overestimating the shortest priced players when they're often the ones who are boosted which you would think might bias the market the other way.

📈Bookmaker/Exchange Accuracy for SOT📈 2020-2026: 82,495 players We analysed 82,495 players' Shots on Target lines Binned by xSOT value (~5.5k per bin) The market over-predicted in 11 of 13 bins (providing an edge to unders-bettors / layers on the exchange). Of interest is how the markets under-predicted the two lowest bins and especially the lowest. 1.77 times more shots on target landed than were expected. Backers and overs-bettors have profited on those defenders in a 0 to 0.108 xSOT range. All players with odds of 15/2 and higher. Calibration chart below:

@ALANMYERSMEDIA Fergie retired 13 years ago, Pep keeps saying he doesn't get involved in transfers, Klopp didn't want Salah, he wanted Brandt and had to be convinced/overruled by the recruitment team and DoF. DoF shouldn't and dont pick the team for individual matches.

@SeanPeppercorn You think Fergie, Pep, Klopp etc don’t have final say on the team and players, that’s why they win not the system, those managers just deal with it better, the majority don’t

When is the penny going to drop with Football Club Owners that the Director of Football model is not workable in this country? You can not have 1-2 or even more people wanting to pick the team at any club, it will always be a a recipe for failure

@nickgoff79 My mum did this to me for my wedding. Had offered to pay her back numerous times previously and she waved it off and then just before the most expensive day of my life said ah knock a bit off what you owe me as a wedding gift and send me the rest...

@BigGazLaw @nickgoff79 It was mentioned almost as soon as it was signed by some journalists close to Liverpool that Salah might be sold to Saudi after the first year of the big contract. I imagine that possibility played into their thinking and reduced some of the risk of giving him it.

@nickgoff79 They don’t make too many mistakes the men there, like you say, the brains will have known.

Liverpool had 27 shots tonight. Mo Salah had one of them. Many issues there right now, clearly. Manager rightly under pressure, summer window recruitment hasn't worked, but by far the biggest issue is Salah going from King of the Premier League to nothing in three months.

@nickgoff79 @mikeinmcr Is the difference not that one was given on the field and one ruled out? Both sit in the grey area of VAR won't overturn it either way?

@mikeinmcr John Stones, 95th min for 2-1 win, just didn’t have the bollocks to say no. Subconscious bias isn’t it

I genuinely don’t understand how anyone can argue against this being the correct decision. Especially with Robertson holding the keeper earlier in the passage of play too.

@gamray Eventually it wrote a vba script to make it a function but I can't write vba well enough to check it's work. So then when I get answers I don't expect I'm unsure if it's a problem with its script or my whole methodology was wrong.

@gamray That's interesting! Still struggling to trust anything it tells me. It was telling me to use an Excel function that doesn't exist yesterday and kept doubling down that it did and that I was probably using an old version of Excel despite this never being an excel function.

I still don’t trust ChatGPT when it comes to important stuff for work or quite frankly a lot of factual stuff (and yes I’m on the new model). But for stuff like tracking my fitness efforts, giving advice and even a bit of encouragement, it’s absolutely sensational

@WenNewSkoda @bookiebashnet What's been so good for you this month? Finding it a bit quieter with much less football (to be expected of course)

This month's profit with @bookiebashnet £2,926!! YTD £5,364, the aim is £12k for 2025!!

@nickgoff79 Do you think Sunderland moving the LED boards closer to the pitch to combat the long throws has any impact on the prices in the match or is the practical impact too small to take into account?

I'm not bothered about who goes through here, but after the other semi final was so bad I feel like we deserve a Coventry goal just to ensure there's some drama in one of the ties.

@SimonNott Thanks!

@SeanPeppercorn It’s all explained here simonnott.co.uk/blog-racing/ra…

Nice to see bookmaking trends being bucked and the good ole fractions to the fore!

@gamray Not as in Rafael surely?

Benitez in before Frankfurt please

Jim Ratcliffe sees this and thinks the problem is the food bill

@nypost @FootballCliches footballers names in obituaries

Secret Service agent Clint Hill, who leaped onto JFK’s car after the president was shot, dead at 93 trib.al/C1iiFW9