Sean

@flcjbtc 没人永远知道会是怎样走，只有直觉。。。

懂王访华的真实目的 中期选举只剩 6 个月，伊朗搞得一团糟，国内油价飙升，支持率掉到难看 懂王访华就是为了把局面扳回来，3个直接好处 （1）订单 → 就业 东大买波音 → 西雅图工厂加班 东大买农产品 → 中西部农民开心 东大买能源 → 德州工人有活干 都是转化成蓝领选票的硬货 （2）芯片松绑 → 美股拉 → 退休金回血 英伟达对华出口松动，科技股拉 美国百姓的退休基金账户跟涨 账户回血 = 支持率回血，见效快 （3）搞定大生意 → 选举弹药 不管真假，回国就能说史上最伟大协议 推特、演讲、媒体连放 1 个月正面新闻 这是最好的中期选举宣传素材 总结来看，这次访华，懂王来华谈崩概率极低 阵容摆这么大，就是冲着必须签下大单来的 对我们圈子来说，接下来 48 小时是密集利好窗口 观望别动，盈利的挂保本止损，跟着信号走就行

@oragnes 77年的才是最接近的哪一代，几乎看完经历整条升级。。。对他们来说实现不了自动驾驶就基本不能再跨越了

80后真的很恐怖，他们经历了： 算盘 计算机DOS window95 windows98 windows2000 XP，7，8，10，11 手摇式电话 拨号电话 大哥大 BP机 蓝屏手机 智能手机 AI

@XXY177 @grok 而且有四个都是闽南人

五巨头为什么都是华裔？ @grok

@AnnaEconomist Producer Price Index Industrial Commodities is enough to tell the picture

Three things to watch for in April’s CPI tomorrow: 1) a jump in rents inflation that is roughly 2x the typical monthly oer/primary rents pace. This is the primary cause of hthe hot core reading. This June reflects the rectification of the zero-out rents inflation last October from the shutdown. 2.) collateral impact on cpi from AI — storage and memory chips storage boosting computers related cpi items. Don’t see a clear end to this. 3) tariff pass through has peaked. Audio equipment is the poster child for tariff pass-through throughout last year. Rolling over now. 4) Airfares surge, but other travel related discretionary services deflating provide much offset. 5) Food prices rising. Full preview @TheTerminal blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T…

@Kacper_PK_CH Be FIRST, be smarter or cheat

Stanley Druckenmiller: "So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts. Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts. I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there. So like around March I could feel it coming. I just, I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a, don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that."

@Gaurab but nothing can stop someone from progressing and advancing...

Every AI chip on Earth starts as a crystal pulled from a pool of molten silicon at 1 millimeter per minute. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot make them without it. In the Czochralski process, a seed crystal the size of a pencil dips into a crucible at 1,414°C. As it is slowly pulled upward, silicon atoms lock into a single crystal lattice. The boule grows to 300 millimeters in diameter, 2 meters in length, and 265 kilograms. Purity: 99.999999999%. Nothing humans have ever made at industrial scale comes close. One atom of the wrong element per 100 billion can shift the electrical properties of every chip cut from that crystal. Two Japanese companies, Shin-Etsu and SUMCO, produce over 50% of the world's 300mm semiconductor wafers. A single wafer sells for $150 to $300. A finished AI chip cut from it sells for over $30,000. China's largest silicon wafer maker, Zhonghuan, serves the solar panel market at six nines of purity. Semiconductor grade requires eleven. Japan has held that gap for 40 years. You can melt silicon anywhere. But you cannot grow a perfect crystal without decades of process knowledge.

@realPureNomad 自此，我们可能会看到几十年来的潮汐改变

说实话，鲍威尔各方面看起来都很正派。

@TJ_Research 那我只能等着美国货币政策的大转向。。。

鲍威尔的最后一舞，做为联储主席完美结束。 为什么说完美？正是因为有了21年加息晚的瑕疵，22年史诗级的加息幅度，有瑕疵的美才是完美。 从结果看： 1. 美国经济和劳动力市场依然坚挺，实现了软着陆 2. 资产价格在他的任期内新高 3. 迅速解决了23年SVB事件，且任期内没有金融危机 4. 18年底的强硬加息导致市场下跌后19年迅速转向 5. 20年疫情的迅速反应 6. 保证了美联储在全世界的公信力 人无完人，他是第二位成功软着陆的联储主席，这里应该有掌声👏

@Gaurab we all know from history when those hypes is over withdrawal symptoms is next...

Chevron used to sell natural gas to chemical plants. Now they're building a 5-gigawatt gas power plant for Microsoft. A BTU burned for AI compute is worth more than a BTU cracked into ethylene. Google signed with Crusoe for 933 megawatts of gas power in North Texas. Meta expanded its Louisiana data center to 7.46 gigawatts with seven new gas plants. Devon Energy and Coterra merged for $58B to lock up gas feeding the AI Corridor. The US chemical industry runs on natural gas. Ethane cracked from gas is the feedstock for polyethylene and hundreds of downstream products. Cheap gas gave American chemical makers a cost advantage over every other country. Now chemical plants and data centers bid for the same BTUs. Gas turbine prices are up 195% since 2019, with six-year delivery backlogs. Natural gas prices are projected to rise 33% by end of 2027. We build chemical plants. Transformer prices are up 80% over the last four years. Our process turbine prices went up 4x last year because data centers got there first. Now they're coming for the gas.

@Gaurab i think we already witnessed from every sector that no matter how high tech one can dominate when someone come with low cost, massive quantities and abundant replaceable parts the advantage diminished...

You cannot buy a new gas turbine until 2030. Order books at GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi stretch to 2029. Turbine prices have nearly tripled since 2019. Every AI data center needs power and every gas plant needs a turbine. And every turbine has one part that bottlenecks the entire industry: The blade. It has to survive in gas 500°C above the melting point of the metal it's made from and spin at up to 20,000 RPM under 10,000 g of centrifugal force. Each blade is grown as a single crystal of nickel superalloy, pulled through a vacuum furnace at 3 mm per minute. A set of blades costs $600,000 and takes 90 weeks to grow. The same metallurgy powers modern jet engines. Only 3 companies on Earth can build one. China spent $42 billion trying to catch up. They bought a Russian fighter engine, took it apart, and copied every part. Their copy ran 30 hours between overhauls versus 400 for the original. Modern Western engines run 4,000. You can reverse engineer the shape of a turbine blade. You cannot reverse engineer 60 years of metallurgy.

@DavidzhuLife 人人头上一片天，她银行存款都可能超过百万，有房有车子，还有几个上钩的凯子

有一次跟客户去KTV，包厢门一开，进来的姑娘里，竟然有我媳妇的闺蜜！ 她显然也认出了我，眼神里闪过一丝玩味， 一点都不慌，我故意点了她，她踩着高跟鞋径直走过来，大大方方地坐在我身边，身上的“黑鸦片”香水味瞬间钻进我鼻子里。 她侧过头，嘴角还挂着意味深长的笑，贴着我问了一句： 你来这种地方，你老婆知道吗？

@IslamBrinti 热带加湿气那才是伤身

所有冷的地方，记住是所有冷的地方，没一个他妈宜居的。 北京不宜居，莫斯科不宜居，纽约不宜居，波士顿不宜居，芝加哥不宜居，东京不宜居伦敦不宜居，柏林不宜居。 你记住只要冷，冬天有一天温度低于15度的，那就已经不宜居了；冬天有一天低于10度的，已经完全没法住人了。 宁愿热死，也要拼了命留在：三亚，深圳，香港，新加坡，曼谷，吉隆坡，旧金山，洛杉矶，佛罗里达，墨尔本，悉尼。 等你以后上年纪了，你就知道天气暖和是多么重要，尤其是多高质量寿命，退休生活，简直是决定性的因素。 答应我，千万别他妈在冷的地方长期生活了，生活质量很差，开暖气穿羽绒服的狗屁生活，老子这辈子都不会再体验了。

@wadezone 经过正统汉字教学的，笔顺笔划基本牢牢印记在脑里，认字基本不难

我发现一个有意思的现象：我们 90 后虽然没有正式地学过繁体字，但是阅读繁体字是没有任何障碍的； 但是现在的 00 后，很多人对繁体字已经不认识了。

@btcbqr 如果没能把产品做到极致基本还是在毛利率瞎折腾，赚了点钱就抽干挪走变私房钱，到处借那盖这洞补那漏水，谁还去搞研发。。。

你们知道吗？潮汕富二代的破产率只有3%，而其他地区高达47%，整整相差15倍！ 为什么潮汕家族财富能代代相传？答案就藏在他们的教育方式里。 今年春节，我特意去潮汕过年，各种去大家族蹭饭，结果被他们的聊天方式彻底震撼。 年夜饭桌上，我原本以为会聊孩子的成绩、哪个学校好，结果完全不是： 他们在聊—— 这个项目回款周期多久？ 那批货压了多少库存？ 这单利润率还有没有空间？ 现在的现金流紧不紧？ 旁边坐着的就是他们的孩子或孙子，有几岁的，有十几岁的。 没有一个人赶孩子去写作业，孩子就乖乖坐在那听，也不玩手机。 偶尔还会插一句： “那为什么不压价？” “那是不是可以换供应商？” 那一刻我心里很震撼： 我们大部分普通家庭，在孩子18岁前都把他隔离在真实世界之外； 而潮汕人，是把孩子直接泡在真实世界里长大的。 这次去潮汕，吴氏、周氏、陈氏等家族，所有男丁清一色穷养长大。 我问了好几个人，他们说：读大学父母只管学费和生活费，其他一律靠自己。 所以潮商有一个共同特点：对钱的理解，从十几岁就开始认真想赚钱的事。 前阵子很火的“深圳烤鸡少年”，我以前以为是摆拍台词。 去了潮汕才知道：他们从小泡出来，每个男孩子真的就是这么想的。 潮汕男人有“三不怕”： 1. 不怕苦 潮汕人早年出海做批发生意，跑东南亚，很多从最底层开始。 香港李嘉诚少年在茶楼打工，泰国首富谢国民也是白手起家。 在他们眼里，苦不是悲情，而是成本。从小训练的不是舒服，是抗压。 2. 不怕吃亏 来了潮汕才知道：吃亏是福。 从来没吃过亏的人，风险判断力几乎为零。 你不让他吃亏，他只会在你看不见的地方吃大亏。 很多有钱人允许孩子吃亏，是因为他们懂： 早亏100万是训练，晚亏一个亿是灾难。 市场不是学校，学校错了扣分，市场错了直接出局。 3. 不怕丢脸 这才是最狠的。 春节期间，潮汕但凡不打烊的饭店，基本都是自家孩子在端盘子上菜。 潮汕也是中国最会磕头的群体，一年磕的头比我们一辈子都多。 生意失败、负债，在他们那根本不丢人，没有“低谷期”，想的是怎么立刻重新开始。 哪怕从摆地摊开始，就一个字：干。 他们从来不把面子当资本，不怕低头、不怕重来、不怕被人看清。 真正厉害的家族，不是给孩子资源，而是给压力。 很多人以为潮汕教育是“吃苦教育”，其实不是苦，而是一套完整的社会压力系统。 他们对“生存能力”看得特别清楚。 这个时代最值钱的不是学历，而是交易能力： 能不能谈判？能不能识人？能不能算账？能不能承担决策后果？ 如果一个孩子从小只会考试，成年后最大的风险是什么？ 是他以为世界是公平的。 而商业世界从来不是公平的，是博弈。 直到真正进入市场，你才知道： 学历解决的是认知，市场解决的是生存。 一个人如果没经历过真正的交易环境，就永远不知道自己有多脆弱。 所以我已经决定了： 把我三个孩子的养育，全部按照潮汕男孩的标准来。 有钱人都应该学习潮汕人怎么教育孩子。 你们怎么看？潮汕式教育，真的香吗？

@indigox 只有机器人能拧螺丝了才有这条件说AI时代真正，完全自动自主驾驶都说了几年了。。。如今呢。。。

软件市场只有 1 万亿，劳动力市场是 80 万亿。AI 不是上一轮互联网的延续，而像电力时代——它要重写的是全部的人力分工！电力发明之后，整整 20 到 30 年企业效率没有提高——因为大家"用法不对"，只是把电机替换原来的蒸汽机，没有重组生产流程。直到福特把自动化生产线发明出来，电力才真正重塑了工业，也才催生了 30 年代的大萧条，我们正处于 AI 大规模自动化“人类工作”的萌芽期，后面还有很多动荡的情节等待发生😆 Rewired 温哥华线下分享节选，油管完整回放看评论🧵

@AnnaEconomist frankly the world petchem market has been in the stage of overcapacity since 2 years back... there is no worry about sourcing cargos...

Here is the country exposure to disruption to ethylene (input into making plastics related stuff). Asia most exposed. US not at all exposed. H/T bnef team

@plantegg 可Michael Burry 看好啊

整个大阿里集团还剩下三个“半条命”的产品： 1. 支付宝 被微信支付按着打，就不说了。 2. 淘宝 现在也是被拼多多干得不要不要的。 3. 阿里云 本来阿里云的产品还有点优势的，这一波 AI 下来，看起来形势也不太乐观。

@JuneGoh_Sparta and Hengyi just reported 40fold jump in profit... 1Q alone over USD4billion revenue and rake in approx USD290million in net profit... i thought they are huge in petchem ie PTA-PET... they must be running hard on their PTA and PET plants

For posterity, I would like to™️some phrases borne out of the crisis: 1⃣ The tussle for crude 2⃣ Fuel oil: The forgotten, unloved barrel 3⃣ Jet fuel: the most stressed barrel 4⃣ Diesel: the workhorse of the barrel 5⃣ Petchem was the FIRST to shutdown and will be the LAST to startup 6⃣ Singapore cracks are set to rise in a big way 7⃣ Intake min 60% or higher. Otherwise it is 0%. Ok it's @JuneGoh_Sparta 's trademark, y'all. Thank you for your attention to this matter! #oott

@Gaurab if they have inventory off the shelves products that could be sold to ME it would be a boom time...

Alfa Laval, a Swedish company most people have never heard of, leads the $20 billion global heat exchanger market. Five firms control over a third of it. Most are European. A refinery runs on heat exchangers. Pipes move hot fluid past cold fluid at every stage of the process. Hundreds of them sit in a single facility, each designed for a specific temperature and pressure. Refining is heat management that happens to produce fuel. When we were building our plant in Houston, we competed with data centers for every piece of critical equipment. Heat exchangers were no exception. Titanium or superalloy units take over a year to fabricate. Only a handful of shops worldwide are certified to build them. A single fouled heat exchanger can shut down an entire process line. In a refinery running 100,000 barrels a day, that's $1 to 2 million in lost margin every day. When one breaks, there is no domestic alternative at scale.

@WallStreetApes is like renewables n solar vs baseload combined cycle... so is he saying this AI bubble will pop soon?

CEO of Citadel Ken Griffin says that Data Center spend this year alone is set to be half a trillion dollars, $500 billion He says that AI is useful in some areas but it’s not worth the investment, he says a lot of what it produces “It’s all garbage” “Data center spent in the United States this year, over half a trillion dollars, like over $500 billion. You're not gonna generate this kind of spend unless you're gonna make a promise. You're gonna profoundly change the world. So is it hype? Of course — In certain areas, we know it's gonna be profound, whether it's call centers, whether it's helping to improve the productivity of software engineers, but in a number of white collar jobs, you know, there was a, there was a recent Harvard paper on this, they called it AI work Slop, that it looks good, but if you sort of peel back the onion, the substance isn't there. I was with one of my colleagues who runs our commodities business and they, he handed a report on that we were generated with an AI engine. Doesn't matter what the topic was, the first few sentences, like, wow, that's, that's really insightful. And then you go down below that and it's all garbage.”