Sebastian Haworth

Happy birthday to the best dad in the whole world @AjTrader7

Disagree…the long tail for $RDDT is much harder to be certain about (not saying there isn’t uncertainty with $APP but I can feel more confident in $APP 2028+) These LLM licenses can only help so much in the short term but growth will still need to come from core advertising. Anecdotally, the people I know who use $RDDT use it when they are searching out an answer, which is just hard to grow in that environment. Attractive multiple today but I’d take $APP

With Friday's closing prices, $RDDT offers better risk/reward than $APP. Both are splendid companies with incredible growth, but I prefer buying $RDDT at $140 rather than $APP at $500. Do people disagree with that? @Nietschecapital and etc what do you guys think?

@Couch_Investor Oil prices

$TMDX is a volatile stock The market is asking whether organ transplants will be disrupted by Claude on a weekly basis.

My highest conviction play today is $APP (followed by $TMDX). My cost basis on $APP is $400 I think it’s worth ~$800 vs $480 today. The math is I think they do $7bn EBITDA in 2026 x 40 multiple = $280bn TEV or roughly $820 / share. We can debate the multiple but there is no reason the multiple should be where it’s at today (~23x) by EOY if they continue to execute. There’s really two key questions I think investors have to answer: 1) is growth sustainable? and 2) are margins structural? This is certainly not an easy company to understand and there’s a lot of unpacking to do but I’m convinced that many folks on the buy-side don’t fully understand the moat around the business, which really boils down to them owning both the demand side and the supply side of the niche and under penetrated mobile gaming market I welcome opposing views (outside of just the chart)

@Nietschecapital Agreed, Matt asked really good questions

$app want to give a shoutout to Matthew Cost the host of the fireside chat on asking some really great questions. was really well done all around

@amitisinvesting Any names, especially SAAS names, that have shown relative strength during SAAS carnage always worth paying attention to

$ZETA Still going through the numbers but this was an exceptional quarter. - 18th straight beat and raise - officially GAAP profitable - guiding for 40% growth - SBC as a % of FCF is declining - trades at 3 P/S CEO was pretty adamant about them taking market share from TTD. Looks like he is confident they will continue to beat and raise as the entire company is now engineered to capitalize on AI. This continues to be my favorite SaaS name within the carnage from a growth perspective vs a reversion to mean perspective on the bigger SaaS names. @QualityInvest5 also has great analysis on the name, worth following!

@geoffhamm @JonahLupton Sure but the vast majority of high-value ad impressions in inventory today are still games, that’s why $app is pushing hard into e-commerce advertisers

@SebastianHawort @JonahLupton not accurate - MoPub acquisition provided APP with a massive amount of non gaming inventory

I'm still trying to confirm this news... if/when I get more details I'll definitely share them... OpenAI mentioned today on their capital raise call that they're now starting to work with $APP (Applovin) on monetizing ChatGPT through ads. As always... NFA and DYOR!!! **I do own $APP personally and so does @FirstWaveFund

@michaelsikand Why couldn’t OAI just do it themselves? Why do they need to outsource?

$APP just hit $430 after hours on rumors it could power ChatGPT's ads. This makes perfect sense. Altman can't go to competitors like Meta or Google to build a world class ads platform. So $APP is the logical partner to bring Axon to OAI. Algos grouped it as "dangerous AI disruption risk" in the saas sell off. When really $APP is one of the most advanced AI companies. Up nearly 17% since starting my position just last week.

I think though excl. the Reality Labs vacuum suck, Llama, and all other non-core projects, it’s fundamentally different things AXON vs Meta are solving for. Meta has likely many trillions of content pieces to sort through every second and determine what the user should see as their next post (think just mindlessly scrolling through Reels and Meta feeding you post after post)…the more GPUs, the better the algorithm gets, the more you stay on Insta, the more advertisers will want to be on Meta AXON just has to decide one thing: what is this ad slot worth…appreciating there are billions of ad slots at one time, but it’s more of a one-time $ equation AXON is solving for vs. what Meta’s algorithm is solving for is something much more complex …now, do they need to be spending $120bn+? That’s a different question

@SebastianHawort @accrued_int @jeremie0117 yeah no doubt Meta is more of a Capex heavy business on just maintenance capex but I was talking about how Meta spends a lot of there capex now on growth capex trying to be like ChatGPT and how they could fund there AI algorithms through operating expenses

This is spot on for $META, @jeremie0117 The market is so hyper-focused on the "sticker shock" of the $135B Capex that they are completely missing the ROI. Ad impressions just accelerated to +18% YoY. The AI is working right now. Ackman and HSBC are finally waking up to the math: it’s an AI monopoly trading at a utility multiple (22x). I think $900 is totally realistic. Wrote a full breakdown on the valuation disconnect here:

@Nietschecapital @accrued_int @jeremie0117 In my head the way I think about is these big gaming publishers like King Street for example, they might partner with AWS to house their data and MAX who gets the 1P data just using whatever cloud platform the gaming publisher is on (AWS in this example)

I could certainly be wrong but I think why $app is way more capex light is because the gaming publishers hold the raw data that $app gets access to through MAX, so $app doesn’t need to spend all the capex on data centers like $meta since they don’t own the mobile games themselves unlike $meta who owns FB, Insta, etc.

@LakeShowYo Thunder vs Knicks

explain Seahawks vs Patriots in NBA terms

@mathlonning That’s a great point…didn’t think about that

$TMDX thoughts: Assuming market sentiment remains similar towards risk on equities leading into $TMDX earnings call late February; some investors may be looking into “safer” assets to park their money in. If $TMDX does end up posting the Q4 2025 numbers I’m expecting with a strong guidance, some investors who may have been reluctant to invest in the niche medtech sector $TMDX is a part of, may feel more inclined to buy into the idea as the growth should be reinstated and the moat doesn’t appear to be threatened by AI anytime soon. Obviously things can change within a day, but the possibility of flows coming into the sector from investors seeking away from “risk” sectors could add fuel to a potential short squeeze scenario. Something to keep an eye on. $TMDX

Rams would have won if we had Aaron Donald

@JonahLupton @anni_sen Current thoughts on $APP?

Been net short software via $IGV $WCLD but now getting net long, most interested in $DDOG $ZS $RBRK $GTLB after severe pullbacks plus $MDB which has held up relatively well. Also watching $IOT $PATH $TWLO and perhaps even $DUOL and $WIX considering how bad they’ve been crushed. First I need Q4 earnings, guidance and management commentary. Many of these stocks are acting like ai is already an extinction level threat and for some it might be but not cybersecurity, if anything we’ll need more spending on cyber over next 5 years because of ai threats from around the world.

SaaS in Q1 ‘26 is dead money. It’s time to accumulate a few names ( $RBRK $GTLB $NOW) while the nonstop selling subsides.I am not a SaaS expert to tell how much enterprise capability OpenAI or Gemini will take from incumbent players however the threat in their business likely justifies lower multiples. So whats working now-> War trade Fear trade Save me from USD trade $INTC Energy for Data Center

@amitisinvesting $APP might be getting caught in the software drag, no news yet this thing is down 15% from its recent highs this year

pretty incredible how software continues to get hit these companies are producing incredible amounts of cash flow but the fears of 2 things seem to be creating an issue: 1) AI making their core workflows irrelevant, aka what Claude CoWork introduced this week 2) These companies claiming AI is a tailwind for them but still only growing at 10% like $CRM and $ADBE at what point does the market say they don't need to grow as fast as the semis because their core businesses are fine or is the software overhang something we see for the rest of the year? $IGV down 10% over the past few months

@mathlonning You still have $APP in the portfolio?

I am now up 30% on the year with only 1 red day. Thanks $ACMR $ASTS $TMDX $EOSE $TSM trimmed or sold covered calls on basically all my positions today, raising cash to 25-30% of total capital.

@KrisPatel99 Same here in LA

Malls are packed today in Nashville, TN. Places like $CAKE cheese cake factory are doing just fine. 2-3 hour waits… Malls seem to also be coming back into vogue, at least the higher end ones. Definetly doesn’t feel like a recession. Speaking to a few people here and there, it seems that the Stock Market gains have been keeping spirits up and while inflation hurts, the vast majority of people are sitting on a good chunk of equity in their homes and portfolios. May just be anecdotal but nothing is breaking… atleast not yet. The American consumer is doing okay. Anyone have any differing accounts.

@amitisinvesting No recession in all the malls in SoCal I’ve been to either

i am not a guy who tends to shop often but I’ve had the same winter boots since 2015 so i went to some outlet stores that are popular here in Jersey for the discounts today to get some new boots PACKED… like I can’t find parking type of packed no recession here 😂