
Seb Kern
477 posts
















The 60/40 portfolio is a bet on a world that’s already dead. Most people are SHORT the singularity and don't even know it. If your wealth depends on human cognitive labor SaaS, consulting, law, finance, admin you're betting AI stays dumb forever. That bet expires soon. THE FIRST PRINCIPLE Value ALWAYS migrates to the bottleneck. Yesterday: Intelligence was scarce → long education, credentials, cognitive labor Tomorrow: Intelligence is infinite → long everything intelligence CONSUMES The bottleneck shifts from THOUGHTS → PHYSICS THE POST-SCARCITY PORTFOLIO Bitcoin (40%): When AI fakes any document, voice, and identity, cryptographic proof becomes the last truth anchor. You can't prompt-engineer 21 million. Energy (30%): Not betting scarcity lasts forever betting ASI gets hungry before it solves its own hunger. Time arbitrage on deployment lag. Hard Tech (20%): Software copies at light speed. Hardware copies at the speed of concrete. Long the toll booths: fabs, rare earths, data centers. Cash (10%): The transition will be violent. Liquidity = optionality when the old system breaks. If ASI goes fast and hard, portfolios are irrelevant anyway. This is a bet on the transition the window where ASI is undeniable but not yet omnipotent. THE DEEPEST INSIGHT Post-singularity, the ultimate scarcity is AGENCY who directs the ASI. Nearly un-investable, except through assets that preserve sovereignty outside the system. ✅ Long Physics ✅ Long Math ❌ Short Labor The window where ASI is undeniable but underestimated is measured in months. By the time it's consensus, the trade is gone. #DYOR


"The Debasement Trade" since COVID: In USD: NDX up 165%, SPX up 102%, Home prices up 56%. In gold: NDX up 7%, SPX down 18%, Home prices down 37%. In BTC: NDX down 78%, SPX down 84%, Home prices down 87%.









