Capptino
157 posts


所有想开盒的人请注意这两个骗子号,原来2-3万粉丝都是买的。@keodancer @poppataraphol 千万别信!别信!别信!
另外有能力开盒的请私信,需要帮忙。
#开盒
#找人
#查档




中文

Vote for @realDonaldTrump and @JDVance
Vote! Vote! Vote!
For America
For Children
For Freedom
Make America Great Again!


English
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查理·芒格的人生箴言:
• 從生活中剔除嫉妒和貪婪
• 不要讓怨恨主導你的決策
• 避免自憐、責怪他人和受害者心態
• 量入為出(開支<收入)
• 保持冷靜:即使在困難時期也要保持積極心態
• 與更高質素的人交往
• 誠信:不要賣任何你自己不會買的東西
• 智慧始於承認自己不知道的事情
• 努力培養延遲滿足的心態
• 選擇正確的榜樣(他的榜樣是本傑明·富蘭克林)
• 發揮你的優勢,在你擅長的領域內
• 制定長期計劃並付諸行動
• 使用逆向思維來避免愚蠢的決策
• 多閱讀:每天早上醒來要變得更有智慧
• 永遠走正道,因為這條路更少人走
• 幸福生活的祕訣是保持低期望
• 注意激勵機制,因為它們決定結果
• 好結果來自於極大的耐心
• 找到好配偶的最好方法是你配得上她/他

中文
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今天中午,又来这家餐馆吃饭,见生意惨淡、门可罗雀,不禁感到一丝悲凉。
回想起2013年5月,我第一次来这个系列餐厅时的场景。
那天下午,在它新桥车站店,我排队1个小时50分钟。那是我经历过的最恐怖的排队。下午5点半,前面已经排了100多人。(图)
轮到我了,竟然连门都没进去。就在外面的廊下摆了一个小桌子,站着就把晚饭吃了。
那天是去吃饭,也是去朝拜。对我来说,它的老板是个传奇。他的经营理念对我影响很大。
他是一位不屈不挠的创业者,一位善于用自己的方式创立市场前所未有的经营体制的设计师。
他叫坂本孝,在之前的创业努力失败后,于1990年他50岁时创立了旧书贩卖店Book Off,并在日本迅速取得巨大成功。一时间被誉为时代的宠儿。
2006年后因各种问题遭受排挤,并于2007年被逐出公司管理,也几乎出尽了自己公司的股票。自己亲手创建的公司与自己完全无关了。
快70岁的他,本可黯然退休,安享晚年,却无法抑制创业的雄心,进入了他完全不懂的餐饮业。
日本是除意大利本土外意大利料理最发达的国家,意大利餐馆林立,数量之多、花样之繁杂,没有哪个国家能与之比拟。
就在这片土地上,坂本孝建立了自己的第一间意大利餐馆,取名"俺的意大利(俺のイタリアン)",发展起来,一发不可收拾,迅速扩张到30多家连锁店。
2012年,旗下的"俺的意大利"、"俺的法国"、"俺的意大利Jazz"等多家餐馆在新桥、银座等地迅速铺开,火到不行。每天人头攒动,大部分顾客不得不站着吃高级料理。因为太火,有人专门写预约攻略。
那时候在东京,如果没去过“俺の”系列餐厅,就是脱离潮流的人。他的餐馆成了东京吃货们的热门话题。我基本上每个星期都要去一次。
餐馆成功的秘诀是,把食料占总成本的比例从普通餐馆的35%大幅度提高到65%,让客人可以用超低的价格享用米其林大厨和顶级食材带来的珍馐。同时努力提高轮座率,从普通洋餐每晚1.5的轮座率,大幅提高到每晚4以上。这使得餐馆优惠了食客的同时也确保了自己的利润率,也因而获得了"外食革命儿"的声誉。
受他的影响,十几年来我在管理自己公司的时候,也一直把各种管理成本和费用压缩到最低。牺牲部分客户体验,最大限度消减日本经营中普遍存在的各种繁文缛节。不设电话、不签合同、不与客户见面打合等,把节约下来的成本通过高质量、低价格的实惠返还客户。
坂本孝创立这家企业10年后,输给了疫情,于2022年去世。其后,餐馆每下愈况,昨日不再。
坂本孝一生好几次创业失败。曾一度颓废。为此,稻盛和夫把他叫到自己的办公室,怒骂45分钟。其后,送他离开时,对他说了一句:
くじけちゃいけない。また事業を始めてみろ。
(不能放弃。再创业吧。)




中文
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如果想半年内翻身,记住稻盛和夫的五句话:
1.改变自己最快的方法,就是做自己害怕的事,不敢做的事,认为自己做不到是事,觉得不可能的事。
2.买了就不要比价格,吃了就不要后悔,爱了就不要猜疑,散了也不要诋毁,所有的一切,都是为自己的选择而买单。钱没了可以再赚,工作没了可以再找,朋友没了可以再交,爱情没了可以再找,生来就一无所有,何惧重头再来。
3.水到绝境是瀑布,人到绝境是重生,半山腰总是很挤的,你的努力去山顶看看。人生这道题,怎么选都有遗憾,真正的强者,是夜深人静的时候,把心逃出来,自己缝缝补补,睡一觉起来又是信心百倍。活着就该逢山开路,遇水架桥,睡前原谅一切,醒来便是重生。
4.大起大落后,你会发现,你帮过的人,不一定帮过你,但帮过你的人,他还会再帮你,泥泞而识马,落难而识人,不经历一事,不懂得一智。一个人是真心,是假意。不在嘴上,而是在心上,一份情是虚伪,是实际。不在平时而在风雨。
5.钱的背后是事,把事做到极致,钱自来。事的背后是人,把人做好了,事自然成,人背后是命,把生命的维度修好,自有好命运的背后是道,有一颗助人的心,就是正道。

中文

#311検索はチカラになる に参加しました。ヤフーやLINEで「3.11」と検索すると、LINEヤフーから、おひとりにつき10円が、東日本大震災および能登半島地震の復興支援のために寄付されます。#311これからもできること yahoo.jp/r_eAqV
日本語
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📝Long cycle thoughts (2024+):
✅Liquidity cycle turned in late 2022 at the bottom of 3.5Y Kitchin cycle and will be in uptrend for several more years 🔄Both 18.6Y and 3.5Y cycles have ~2 more years after which we re-assess if we have more time in the long cycle
✅Fed started easing exactly on time with presidential cycle working out well so far. In fact, I expected them to start cutting H2 2023, so surprised they lasted this long. I noted in December 2022 that they have to do QE soon due to bank reserves hitting stress levels - this played out exactly that way. Draining liquidity will remain impossible task keeping inflation elevated.
✅Fed over eased, then overtightened, 8%+ mortgage rates/ 5% 10Y spooked them, now making up by easing too fast and signaling further accommodating policy. Powell going for glory.
✅Any signs of banking stress, economic weakness or market crash will trigger further easing and new round of QE (powell looking for an excuse to do it)
⚠️I expect we’ll get several 10% type and at one 20% type shakeouts all within secular bull market - with 1st one being in early 2024
🛢️Mid-late 2023 was 4Y cycle low for most Commodities. Now trend is up till 2025 at least, potentially 2026. I’m looking to allocate to commodities after being out of it most of 2023.
🏠Housing cycle should also start its final leg up
✅There are still trillions of excess M2 in the system and 1T gov deficit making deflationary recession unlikely
🛢️With both oil/commodities and housing back in uptrend and 1T fiscal deficit and easy Fed in the election year, we have a set up for 2nd wave of inflation cycle within 5.34Y cycle (see chart below)
🌽Watch agris start moving up and oil spiking back to ~$100 by spring - sending first warning shot
💡One hypothesis I had past 2 years is this 18.6Y economic cycle ends with 2nd wave of 5.35Y inflation cycle and Fed tries to tighten again (yes they will hike again thinking they can repeat 2022-23), but this time there will be no excess savings and we’ll be in late stage economic cycle and this will trigger economic collapse.
🚨When Fed realizes they are on the brink of economic collapse they flood system with money triggering even bigger inflationary cycle (10%+ CPI)
🇯🇵BoJ will likely drop YCC making yen is significantly underpriced which is supported my my cycle work
💦My plan for next 2 years is stay liquid, save and have a back up plan for the crisis and assess if your job is safe due to Ai and upcoming economic collapse. Most people will be blind sided, not prepared and will overextend financially due to mass euphoria. Stay humble when everyone else will try to keep up with the joneses
⚠️Assets will become extremely overpriced and will pull decade worth of returns forward. Investors will give back most if not all gains from COVID lows.
📝This has been my working hypothesis past 2-3 years and hasn’t changed much - most of these ideas have been shared here.



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👇SQUARE OF 9👇
1) Gann’s Pyramid is a trading system developed during the 1920s by William Gann. Although his theory was never published in a scientific journal and some traders view it as something close to astrology.
#GANN #squareofnine #timeforecasting #astrocycles
+++

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