Non-Consensus
213 posts
I have no idea how options work but I want to short $MU.
It had a generational run, but I honestly think it cools off a bit.
Is this a good idea?
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@GrantCardone multiples during internet boom were way higher
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🚨 Are you concerned? US stock market most OVERVALUED in 50 years.
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The Micron rally has nothing to do with fundamentals. It's a gamma squeeze with very short term options that will expire in 3 days. Calculate the notional volume for the $900 and $1000 calls expiring this Friday
$MU
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@maxlevrge @Cryptjezy right so datacenters in space isn't a demand vector..humanoids aren't a demand vector. None of this is priced. Have fun being a bear
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@Cryptjezy Lol. Why are margins high? Because every hyperscaler and big tech is buying every gpu they can get their hands on, all at the same time, spending more than their free cash flow. Idiots are the people who price in this gold rush / land grab / price gouge as a permanent feature
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$mu i like the stock but it’s fully valued imo. CNBC keeps pumping it as being 10x forward earnings like idiots. It is cyclical and will top out soon. Obviously hyperscalers cannot and will not spend like this forever.
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@maxlevrge Forward earnings visibility, tight supply, endless demand vectors. Still one of the cheapest key ai infrastructure suppliers
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@themarketear Lagged data, they reduced positions which is what resulted the dip in early March.
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Asset managers reduced semiconductor longs rather aggressively during the latest dip.
Don’t they understand every semis dip must be bought?
zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…
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@OxfordAnalytics They will come down once we overbuild. In other words, lot of more room to run in the meantime
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Compute is too expensive. The profit margins of semiconductor and memory stocks and photonics and optical networking stocks are too high. They have to come down for the unit economics of compute to make sense. The AI labs like OpenAI & Anthropic are subsiding their losses through never ending fund raising but that stops when they go public. That’s when the merry go round stops and reality hits.
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Who should I interview on my podcast?
Open to more AI, but also to random history/econ/etc professors that I might not have heard of before.
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@dwarkesh_sp Please someone from memory. Think the audience wants to hear how the demand is structural this time around.
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@cryptorover @zerohedge That’s the signal that AI infrastructure has ways to go. Need to overbuild for costs to come down
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🚨 THE AI COST CRISIS HAS STARTED.
Microsoft reportedly told engineers to stop using Claude because AI bills were exploding, while Uber says its entire yearly AI budget was already destroyed by April.
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@PurpleDrink_LLC ya market has it wrong, memory will be tight in supply for easily the next decade.. MU should rerate much higher
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FYI got this elsewhere, thanks you know who you are
Still hard for me to square how $MU can be this easy to cycle out vs. say $ARM for example
PurpleDrinkCapital@PurpleDrink_LLC
Can someone actually explain the gap between memory valuation and all this other AI adjacent stuff? Not being sarcastic what’s actually the mechanics behind this supposed gap, I know memory is cyclical etc
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Will be interesting to see which company Elon attempts to acquire first: Intel, Substrate, Cerebras, Space Forge or Etched
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@AskYoshik @zerohedge It’s just the initial ramp up, they need to overbuild to bring down compute costs, after which it will become profitable. SaaS companies burn cash for many years before they become profitable.
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The AI bubble math doesn't add up.
Anthropic spends $3 to make $1 and that’s before you include any and all other costs like staff or electricity.
Microsoft dumped $300B in capex, made ~$18B in AI revenue. OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up 43-54% of Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle's entire revenue backlogs.
Enterprises are burning through annual AI budgets in 4 months with zero measurable ROI.
This is the most expensive science experiment in history, funded by your SaaS subscriptions.
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@ProblemSniper Only reason it faded was because noise from potential china firms dumping supply.
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@bubbleboi More chips from start ups
But short EDA
You have no idea what you be talking about
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@TBU12345678 agreed them and potentially even Nuclear names that have rallied hard
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given the SpaceX IPO and $VRT at 45x+ NTM, people should question the terminal value here and $VRT ought to be a big thematic loser of data centers in space
TBU@TBU12345678
$VRT down 6 because you don't need liquid cooling in space, nice
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@ContrarianCurse only way compute becomes profitable is once we overbuild and we are probably a decade away from that..
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Market realizes that we are barreling towards extreme scarcity of compute. Every lab, HS is rushing to secure any compute they can get their hands on
Compute costs are likely to inflationary for the foreseeable future because the value of what the compute can do is increasing faster than the ability to bring it on
So with that being said
The absolute worst thing you can do is CONTRACT THIS SHIT OUT AT A FIXED RATE
Do not fucking do it
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@zerohedge Yields up because of rising oil prices. Market is looking past the increase as short term. The generals are driving the market, and when yields are rising the mag 7 tend to perform better because of their strong growth. So this chart is pretty normal.
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@TheLongInvest EPS is growing so stock should go up. Plus the earnings will prove to be durable, so this puppy is going much higher.
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$MU was at $60 in April 2025
And hit $811 in May 2026
And people think this is normal and do not expect a pull back
And what stage of the cycle do you believe we are in now?
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest
$MU Honestly, we are in living in a time where people think this is normal And FOMO'ing that they did not chase this. This is as parabolic as you'll see and this is a $817 BILLION MARKET CAP company Yes we are in a bubble, yes they will all collapse and yes this time IT IS NOT DIFFERENT.
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