Sh🅰️kespeare
562 posts
Sh🅰️kespeare
@ShakespeareCap
Asymmetric trader. Sharing my thought process journey. Research and post about these stocks extensively: $ASTS $OUST $AUR $PENG $KRKNF $HLIT $BWEN $BAER
Katılım Mart 2022
121 Takip Edilen103 Takipçiler
🇨🇳 Meanwhile in China
Driverless delivery trucks are quickly taking over.
No limits on drivers hours, no salary or insurances for the employee drivers & the data will soon show they are safer.
This is the 4th Industrial Revolution.
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I bought some $IBKR today. The platform is superior to any brokerage available for retail.
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@ThematicTrader $GEV earnings tmrw. Should provide some early insight maybe on the gas turbine demand/ramp
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$BWEN is my favorite chart in the market. Coiled like a spring.
Earnings in ~3 weeks, where I expect their backlog growth to be spectacular and Book-to-bill once again above 1.5x for Industrial & Gearing segments.
9 Ventures@ThematicTrader
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If i don’t see anything i like we are cutting and rotating into a physical Ai name.
#onlywinners
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potential swing trade with $BWEN. Key supplier to GE Vernova and Siemens.
$GEV earnings before trading session tmrw. Would look to Gas power results, accelerating capacity, or anything about the gas turbine ramp/orders.
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Fire season only expected to get worse in August. This is just the start of El Nino. I think a lot of people will be surprised earning report time.
$BAER
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman
$BAER: YoY utilization for the entire fleet is up massively
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@moninvestor You sell a 20% jump like this in this macro IMO. This can be erased in a few trading sessions quite easily.
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@LuckyStuey that's a conclusion. What is your reasoning? what subscriber, ARPU, and margin assumptions get you there? Link me to a previous post if you have one if that works better.
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@ShakespeareCap Service revenues will disappoint - unlikely enough to repay capex or very low
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I probably sound like a broken record, i still think this $ASTS dip is the best opportunity in the market right now. Business executing on all fronts, and price is dirt-cheap. Last time i saw sentiment this low was last yr at $37 before it ran up to 110$ very quickly.
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@LuckyStuey what part of ASTS’s execution or market opportunity makes you think it should be valued in the single-digit billions?
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Which part of $22B do you think is cheap? You're tracking SPCX as it sells off from its ridiculously hyped IPO valuation. The notion that SPCX holders bought $ASTS shorts as a hedge seems to have been thoroughly debunked. Once this gets to single digit billions we can talk about reasonable valuations, but $22B is still way too much hype, I'm afraid.
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I'm not tracking spacex at all. I just think it’s cheap relative to what a completed constellation could unlock. Based on the facts we have, ASTS appears to be progressing in a direction where completing the constellation is increasingly likely.
I also don’t think traditional valuation metrics are very useful here. Valuing the company on current revenue or earnings misses most of the thesis.
In general, as long as the market believes space will be a major opportunity (and i doubt that sentiment will change) successful space infrastructure companies will probably continue trading at a premium because the potential markets are enormous and still largely undeveloped.
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@WaltzDisneyz @pennycheck recently moved into the humanoid market after product launch.. humanoid trade $$$ rn.
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@pennycheck I just don't understand why is this the right moment to invest, considering the stock price has been erratic for the past months / years.
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$IREN swing trade idea....?
i wish i had dry powder.
Lando@LandoInvests
$IREN Horizon 1 has been confirmed delivered via an employee on Facebook reels H/t: @deep_miners
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The bigger risk about vision is lidar/camera stack becoming commoditized. early design wins and constant innovation/maintaining moat while being able to compete on cost is important. So i think you have to pay extra attention to leadership/management and execution in short-term and extrapolate
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Looking back i would only argue this for VPG. I think the vision stack is the best place to be to play robotics (OUST, INDI), bc vision is so hard to design out of a supply chain compared to sensors,strains, guages.
As Agility Robotics CEO said, "we are not a camera company, we are a humanoid company". to create lidar or a vision stack from scratch is a r&d process that can completely derail a company. Only company i have seen suceed with this is Aurora, and they did this through an aquisition and 2-3 years of R&D to create their proprietary long-range Lidar. Was this worth it? They are still a first-mover in a laggard industry, so yes. But with this much competition as well as hype in the humanoid industry compared to autonomous trucking, risk of falling behind is greater.
Another reason why i don't like VPG is i think it is too narrative driven ATM. I want a bigger drawdown. Humanoids should be an optionality on top of the existing business, not the driver of the entire upside especially since the buildout is so far out.
Sh🅰️kespeare@ShakespeareCap
Looking at humanoid names like $INDI and $VPG, first thought is, aren't we a little TOO early for the humanoid ramp? Humanoids won't be created in volume for the next 5+ years most likely. Not too mention, suppliers could switch out, and the companies that are on top now could change dramatically in a few years. Nothing is set in stone. Again humanoids will change the world of course, but feels overestimated short-term. May be wrong. Another thought i had is the humanoid pure-plays that are most likely to succeed are companies that are vertically integrated. Because as there is multiple competitors, the winner will be who can maximize margins (deliver as many functioning robots at minimal cost). Thus in that case, wouldn't betting on sensor suppliers and specific companies within the current supply chain have an overarching risk of being designed-out? Companies like Figure and Tesla Optimus have repeatedly said how important it will be to be vertically intregrated. Makes you wonder once volume picks up, will Company A spending 200M on sensors each year decide they will get more ROI building them in-house instead? $TSLA
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