BuyBye

$HIMS wants to become the consumer-facing front door for healthcare but the market still needs proof the $NVO partnership can turn GLP-1 demand into profitable growth. After the compounded GLP-1 boom faded, the stock is no longer getting credit for the opportunity until the margins and retention are proven.

WHY $SOFI IS A TOP 3 POSITION FOR ME The market is overpricing the credit fear and underpricing the platform optionality when it comes to SoFi which is why I think it's one of the weirdest setups in the market right now. The business is still executing very well but the stock is stuck in one of the worst sentiment buckets since the market clearly doesn't want exposure to credit-sensitive stocks in a higher-for-longer rate environment and SoFi still gets treated like a bank-like lender even though the business is becoming much broader than that. The Loan Platform Business (LPB) is more important than people realize since SoFi originated $3B of personal loans on behalf of third parties through LPB in the quarter and added another $3.6B of capital commitments from three new partners. That matters because it gives SoFi flexibility so they can choose which loans to keep on the balance sheet and which loans to push through partners for fee revenue without taking the same balance sheet risk (very different model than being a traditional lender that is stuck holding everything). This is also why the private credit fear looked less scary if you listened to the actual earnings call. One of the biggest bear arguments was that funding partners would pull back if credit conditions weakened but Noto said they're not seeing issues in performance or partner demand and LPB demand was actually above what they chose to fulfill. The member flywheel is still the main reason this is a top 3 position for me because this is a real moat the market is overlooking. SoFi added over 1M members in the quarter, ~45% of new products came from existing members and 50% of SoFi Plus sign-ups took another product. The more members they add, the more products they cross-sell, the more deposits they gather, the more revenue they generate per member and the more efficient the platform becomes (how SoFi becomes more valuable over time). SoFi Plus becoming a paid subscription is also great to see because recurring fee revenue on top of a growing user base can improve unit economics over time. The biggest thing I want to see next is the Tech Platform turning around which is obviously the weakest link. Technology Platform revenue fell 27% YoY to $75M, contribution profit fell 61% and total accounts declined because of the large client that transitioned off the platform. Management is rebranding it as SoFi Tech Solutions and breaking it into processing, banking core ledgers, payment hub, and risk and fraud. If that platform starts growing again then great but I view this more as a free call option on owning SoFi. I truly believe SoFi is a good business trapped in a bad sentiment bucket. The market is focused on rates, credit risk and the weak Technology Platform while I'm focused on members, deposits, cross-buy, loan platform flexibility, operating leverage and the long-term path toward becoming a top financial institution. It can absolutely trade lower if the market sells off or if credit fears come back but I think the business is much stronger than the stock action suggests and I have no problem keeping this a top 3 position for me.

I am surprised more people are not paying attention to this update from Anthropic on its stock policy. This seems like a potential bombshell. There is an active secondary market purportedly in Anthropic stock or derivatives including on fairly reputable (or at least well-known) platforms like Forge. Anthropic is calling them out *specifically*, by name, and essentially *saying* 100% of these are illegal. Some may be frauds (people selling Anthropic stock or interests in Anthropic stock that they don't truly own), but more likely many are legit attempts at transferring Anthropic equity (directly, as SPV shares, or as some type of 'beneficial interest' or future, etc.) Anthropic appears to be saying it will treat all these transfers as void. I don't have access to their terms, but it's very interesting to think what this could mean. Do the 'first purported sellers' in the chain potentially have an opportunity to do a double-dip? Does the first seller and all downstream buyers get the entire entitlement nuked? Anthropic is threatening that--are they just bluffing? If they're not bluffing, what litigation is likely to ensue? This can get into really esoteric areas of corporate law that depend on exactly how the transfer restrictions are drafted as well as the language around how violations of transfer restrictions are treated--for example, if they are merely voidABLE then downstream buyers can assert various equitable claims/defenses, but if they are VOID ab initio then in some jurisdictions that forecloses equitable defenses.

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During the last earnings call, $NOW CEO said they were going to reduce stock based compensation. I thought he was joking, but it looks like he's gonna do it They gonna get cash instead

MY 3 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES RIGHT NOW 1. $MELI | MercadoLibre MercadoLibre is the cleanest example of a stock that looks broken because the market wanted near-term EBIT while the business is clearly on fire underneath. Revenue grew 49% YoY to $8.8B, commerce grew 47%, fintech grew 51%, GMV grew 42% and Brazil items sold accelerated 56% yet the stock sold off because margins compressed as management chose to reinvest into free shipping, logistics, credit cards, 1P commerce and marketing instead of managing the quarter for the market. I think the market is trying to paint MercadoLibre as this mature retailer trying to squeeze out another 50 bps of margin but really it's still building the $AMZN + $PYPL + $XYZ logistics layer for LatAm in a region where e-commerce, digital payments, credit, ads and primary banking adoption are still years behind the U.S. 2. $SOFI | SoFi SoFi is a stock that looks broken because the market wanted the usual beat-and-raise while the business still delivered numbers that most fintechs would kill for. Revenue grew 41% YoY to $1.1B, EBITDA grew 62%, members grew 35% to 14.7M and loan originations grew 68% to $12.2B but the stock sold off because management only reiterated guidance, rate cut expectations have disappeared and the Tech Platform (Galileo) segment remains weak from the Chime offboarding. My thesis is that SoFi is still building the all-in-one digital finance platform for the next generation. The core flywheel is intact because members are growing, deposits are scaling, lending demand remains strong and ~45% of new products are coming from existing members. 3. $META | Meta Platforms Meta is a stock the market keeps treating like an AI capex problem while the actual business is becoming one of the clearest AI monetization engines in the world. Revenue grew 33% YoY to $56B, ad impressions grew 19%, ad pricing grew 12% and Q2 guidance came in stronger than expected but the stock sold off because Meta raised capex guidance by $10B and market immediately went back to the fear that Zuckerberg is overspending before the payoff shows up. I think the payoff is already showing up since AI is improving Reels ranking, video engagement, ad targeting, conversion quality, business messaging and creative performance across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Reels. Meta is using AI to make the highest-margin advertising machine on the internet more relevant, more efficient and more valuable. The common thread across all three is that the market is punishing near-term discomfort while the underlying businesses are getting stronger which is the exact kind of mismatch I like buying.

MY 3 FAVORITE STOCK OPPORTUNITIES RIGHT NOW 1. $MELI | MercadoLibre MercadoLibre is the cleanest example of a stock that looks broken because the market wanted near-term EBIT while the business is clearly on fire underneath. Revenue grew 49% YoY to $8.8B, commerce grew 47%, fintech grew 51%, GMV grew 42% and Brazil items sold accelerated 56% yet the stock sold off because margins compressed as management chose to reinvest into free shipping, logistics, credit cards, 1P commerce and marketing instead of managing the quarter for the market. I think the market is trying to paint MercadoLibre as this mature retailer trying to squeeze out another 50 bps of margin but really it's still building the $AMZN + $PYPL + $XYZ logistics layer for LatAm in a region where e-commerce, digital payments, credit, ads and primary banking adoption are still years behind the U.S. 2. $SOFI | SoFi SoFi is a stock that looks broken because the market wanted the usual beat-and-raise while the business still delivered numbers that most fintechs would kill for. Revenue grew 41% YoY to $1.1B, EBITDA grew 62%, members grew 35% to 14.7M and loan originations grew 68% to $12.2B but the stock sold off because management only reiterated guidance, rate cut expectations have disappeared and the Tech Platform (Galileo) segment remains weak from the Chime offboarding. My thesis is that SoFi is still building the all-in-one digital finance platform for the next generation. The core flywheel is intact because members are growing, deposits are scaling, lending demand remains strong and ~45% of new products are coming from existing members. 3. $META | Meta Platforms Meta is a stock the market keeps treating like an AI capex problem while the actual business is becoming one of the clearest AI monetization engines in the world. Revenue grew 33% YoY to $56B, ad impressions grew 19%, ad pricing grew 12% and Q2 guidance came in stronger than expected but the stock sold off because Meta raised capex guidance by $10B and market immediately went back to the fear that Zuckerberg is overspending before the payoff shows up. I think the payoff is already showing up since AI is improving Reels ranking, video engagement, ad targeting, conversion quality, business messaging and creative performance across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Reels. Meta is using AI to make the highest-margin advertising machine on the internet more relevant, more efficient and more valuable. The common thread across all three is that the market is punishing near-term discomfort while the underlying businesses are getting stronger which is the exact kind of mismatch I like buying.