Warren Sharp

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Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp

@SharpFootball

Inventing custom, predictive NFL analytics & visualized data @ https://t.co/iKdUa4MUNo || no days off notifications on 🔔

[email protected] Katılım Ağustos 2009
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
I evaluated the last 4 years of John Lynch drafts his performance: 2023: #31 2024: #28 2025: #31 2026: #32 after the draft, Lynch claimed he knows better than everyone else the data shows he doesn’t I went thru every single "reach" he made it's gross sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/john-…
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Greg Auman
Greg Auman@gregauman·
In what should be a close NFC South, worth noting that Saints have one of the easiest 2026 schedules and Panthers have one of the hardest.
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball

NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2026! 5 easiest schedules: 1️⃣ Lions 2️⃣ Saints 3️⃣ Bengals 4️⃣ Browns 5️⃣ Jets 5 hardest schedules: 2️⃣8️⃣ Rams 2️⃣9️⃣ Cowboys 3️⃣0️⃣ Panthers 3️⃣1️⃣ Dolphins 3️⃣2️⃣ Cardinals 1-32 with insight & analysis: sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-s…

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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
@calvinwatkins true... market was only at 7.5 heading into 2025, they won 7 with all those issues what is your 2026 projection with market currently at 8.5?
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Calvin Watkins
Calvin Watkins@calvinwatkins·
@SharpFootball Some perspective on the season. Cows traded their best player (Parsons), 2 starting CB hurt a bulk of season, FA signings were busts, trade for Williams was a temporary boost. Pass rush was MIA. Defense was a mess. FYI I projected 9 wins for 2025.
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
how many wins for the Cowboys this year? notes: last year the Cowboys played the #3 easiest schedule they won 7 total games in their 8 games vs teams with a winning record... they won 1-of-8 in their 7 games vs teams who made the playoffs... they won 1-of-7 they went 3-1 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, they play 10 teams projected to have a winning record they have the #2 biggest increase in schedule difficulty... and the #4 overall toughest schedule
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
@Dacuse22 @grok x.com/SharpFootball/…
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball

at this time last year, my calculations said: Easiest 2025 schedules: 1. SF - OVER (12 wins > 10.5) 2. NE - OVER (14 wins > 8.5) 3. NO - OVER (6 wins > 4.5) 4. ATL - UNDER (8 wins < 8.5) 5. BUF - UNDER (12 wins < 12.5) 6. JAX - OVER (13 wins > 7.5) Hardest 2025 schedules: 32. NYG - UNDER (5 wins < 5.5) 31. CLE - OVER (5 wins > 4.5) 30. DET - UNDER (9 wins < 10.5) 29. PHI - UNDER (11 wins < 11.5) 28. MIN - UNDER (9 wins < 9.5) 27. KC - UNDER (6 wins < 11.5)

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Chad
Chad@Dacuse22·
@SharpFootball @grok Can you let me know how NFL teams fared in 2025 when looking at this same metric. Curious to see what was forecasted vs 2025 results.
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
NEW: NFL strength of schedule for 2026! 5 easiest schedules: 1️⃣ Lions 2️⃣ Saints 3️⃣ Bengals 4️⃣ Browns 5️⃣ Jets 5 hardest schedules: 2️⃣8️⃣ Rams 2️⃣9️⃣ Cowboys 3️⃣0️⃣ Panthers 3️⃣1️⃣ Dolphins 3️⃣2️⃣ Cardinals 1-32 with insight & analysis: sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-s…
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
another look at Bears 2026 opponents (exact weeks tbd)
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
how many wins for the Bears this year? notes: last year the Bears played the #9 easiest schedule they won 11 games of their 17 games last year, only 5 were vs playoff teams (3-2) only 1 team played fewer playoff teams last year they trailed in 9 games entering the 4th quarter & came back to win 4 #1 most 4th quarter comebacks in NFL they were +22 in turnover margin #1 in NFL they were +103.8 EPA in turnover margin #1 in NFL (by a mile) opponents mad only 77% of FGs against Chicago #3 lowest rate in NFL but opponents only had 678 penalty yards against them #1 fewest in the NFL #6 toughest schedule in NFL in 2026 with 9.5 projected wins how many do they get?
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Mac Hubbs
Mac Hubbs@Mac_hubbs·
@SharpFootball Exactly. What do you factor to predict their strength of schedule?
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NFL Philosophy
NFL Philosophy@NFLosophy·
Good spot to talk about year to year projections. There is SO much to account for, including SOS, injuries, coaching changes, draft, and even luck. It’s similar to an audio engineer tweaking 25 dials to get the perfect output. This is a good look at one of the bigger dials.
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball

how many wins for the Cowboys this year? notes: last year the Cowboys played the #3 easiest schedule they won 7 total games in their 8 games vs teams with a winning record... they won 1-of-8 in their 7 games vs teams who made the playoffs... they won 1-of-7 they went 3-1 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, they play 10 teams projected to have a winning record they have the #2 biggest increase in schedule difficulty... and the #4 overall toughest schedule

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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
@Mac_hubbs stop using prior year W-L record to calculate next year’s strength of schedule
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Mac Hubbs
Mac Hubbs@Mac_hubbs·
@SharpFootball This is completely subjective because they had the 2nd hardest “strength of schedule” preseason based off previous year’s teams overall record.
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
here are some other questions I answer in the article: ► Why are prior season win-loss records unreliable when predicting strength of schedule? ► Why do predicted win totals provide more accurate strength of schedule results? ► How accurate is this model for determining strength of schedule?
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
I realize I should have shared a few elementary aspects to this judging by some questions/comments the strength of schedule calculations are NOT based on 2025 W-L records 2025 final W-L is irrelevant to 2026 schedule calculations these are based ONLY on 2026 projections from current betting markets updated as of this weekend (5/3/26)
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john Kim
john Kim@johny_5_alive·
@SharpFootball The strength of the schedule is dependent on last year's record. Teams usually don't repeat the same performance from the previous year so we shall see how the season plays out.
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
@49ersTakes__ @Coach_Yac my schedule calculations do NOT utilize 2025 actual W-L records, so things like KC or MIN having their records in 2025 is irrelevant to these calculations I am using only 2026 forecast projections by the betting markets
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
28-3 type comeback
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Warren Sharp
Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
runs over 20 yards since 2024: (Derrick Henry turned 30 in 2024) 33 - Derrick Henry 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 - Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs 19 18 17 - De'Von Achane 16 15 14 13 - James Cook, Chase Brown 12 - Jordan Mason, Bijan Robinson 11 - Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III 10 - J.K. Dobbins 9 - Josh Jacobs, Jalen Hurts, Bucky Irving, Bo Nix 8 - Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, D'Andre Swift etc *regular season only
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@calvinwatkins @Dacuse22 @grok @Mac_hubbs @johny_5_alive @49ersTakes__ @Coach_Yac @elonmusk