Shimmy
985 posts

Shimmy
@Shimen238
Stocks, Options, Futures, Crypto & Finance Enthusiast.
New York, USA Katılım Ocak 2019
1.5K Takip Edilen423 Takipçiler

@WhiteHouse Hey Social Media intern, you should include the # of record highs on the Nasdaq-100 as well!
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@Mr_Derivatives Wealth transfer coming. Gen Z knows one platform and that's $HOOD
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@vladtenev @RobinhoodApp • Better technical analysis tools like Webull/Tradingview.
• Better and clearer history for same security purchases, cost basis, tax term long/short, P&L on each acquisition, like fidelity.
• Business Accounts.
• Live Options Flow.
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What products and features do you want from @robinhoodapp in 2025? Don’t hold back (not that you guys do).
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@manztrades ETH has been lagging since Aug. 5th (aka black monday 2024)
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@Invest_Brandon I would replace $QQQ with $VGT but it sucks not having $TSLA $META & $AMZN in it.
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$NVDA
Can u imagine if NVDA is back to 125 tomrw after all the shit talking by the bears 🐻
U better hope not cause I’m from Brooklyn and have a PHD in shit talking and I promise to give u mental PTSD for being such horrific pricks
Besides raising ur hand that u hate NVDA and are short tells me u have missed the single best stock in the market literally ever and ur bragging about that 🤦♂️
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@DanielTNiles Well said.
$META & $AAPL are the closest to ATH from the 7.
Guidance is everything.
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Following $NVDA’s results today, I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated… My plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections.”
AI landscape today compared to the internet in the late 1990s:
1. During the internet infrastructure buildout, $CSCO revs increased ~15.5x over 6 years from the end of 1994, when Netscape Navigator (the first mass internet browser) was introduced, to its peak and Cisco’s stock rose ~4000%.
2. Nvidia, since the end of 2022 when OpenAI’s ChatGPT was introduced, has seen revenues go up “only” 5x over the past 7 quarters through today’s results with the stock up “only” 760%.
So far the six Magnificent 7 names that already reported have declined 4% on average the day after reporting on generally disappointing guidance. Only $AAPL and $META both beat revs and EPS for Q2 and had forward revenue & EPS estimates go up as well.
NVidia’s stock is also likely to decline tomorrow given it had the smallest rev/EPS beat of 4%/5% over the past 5 quarters with an even smaller increase relative to consensus for the next quarter.
This increases the odds in my mind of a pending AI capex digestion phase at some point over the next six months. While industry hyperscaler capex is expected to be up ~50% in CY24, NVDA revs were up 262% y/y in CQ1:24 and up 122% y/y for CQ2. Customers have probably been ordering more GPUs than they need over the past 7 quarters given supply has severely lagged demand. As the CEOs of Google, Microsoft and Meta have all said recently, they view the greater risk to be underspending on AI versus overspending. What this means to me, is that when they decide to digest their historical spend now that supply is catching up with demand, much like following Covid, this may be a sharp correction. Deceleration to ~10% capex growth or worse next year would not surprise me.
Following CQ2 results, forward revenue estimates went down at the three AI related hyperscalers: $MSFT, $AMZN and $GOOGL. These are three of the biggest customers for NVidia (in addition to Meta) and in 2022 digestion at these same customers occurred following the build out during Covid. As a result, Nvidia revenues declined 28% in six months while revenues went from up 53% year-over-year in CQ4:2021 to down 21% by CQ4:2022. The stock declined 66% from peak to trough during this slowdown.
In summary, I continue to expect a digestion phase to start over the next six months (and a commensurate fall in the stock price) but then for the AI buildout to continue for the next several years. As a reminder, Cisco’ stock had intra-year declines of 26% in late ‘95, 38% in early ‘97; and 37% in late ‘98 as expectations of growth ebbed and flowed while the stock ultimately climbed ~4000% from the end of 1994 to its peak. I anticipate similar volatility for Nvidia over the next several years while both the revenues and stock double over that time as the AI buildout continues.
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@Banana3Stocks @AqueefOx And we also have elections coming up, which are usually in bulls' favor.
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I have a question for you
It’s something I’m debating
So usually July is phenomenal with a little August follow thru
Then, a September sell off and October retest generally
This time because of the Japan carry trade and maybe smart money knows that for the first time in 2.5 years the FED is cutting rates and it happens to accidentally land exactly on seasonal weakness as they look to cut rates in September and October and my mentor Marty Zweig taught me to not fight the FED
Maybe the moved forward everything two months. U got the sell of in July and August the seasonally strong months and TBD - inversely we get strength in September and October when everyone expects weakness cause we already got weakness
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@Banana3Stocks @whoisNICKYOUNG Same as Crypto, most don't understand the technology. therefore, don't invest in it.
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$SPY $QQQ
To the pros out there…
S&P just tested its 10% trend avg also known as the price oscillator unchanged line which was around 5560. For the deep pros you know that after a rainbow convergence at some point there’s a touch or retest of the 10% trend avg. it’s after, that the debate begins on wether it’s a Type 1 or Type 2 convergence.
When people like Stefanie Link whom only runs the money at TIAA Cref which is only 1.7 trillion dollars AUM says she’s begging God that NVDA comes down a little after earnings so she can buy some…is a window into the mind of a PM
So a key retest was complete today on the index and an institutional portfolio manager says she’s buying weakness in NVDA. If she thinks that and says that she’s not the only one
You are literally an insane if u think anything NVDA said is bearish. It’s just a matter of bullish timing the price and the shaking out of the options chasing along with the inevitable rebound
All my targets remain, including the new ATH in the market likely soon. I know I know NVDA is dead foreva evaaa… see u at all time highs soon. I know I’m an idiot right - the same idiot that called the bottom on August 5th for a V- Rally for 500 points I was wrong it was 600 points 😂 . This post will be linked to it like all my other ones most likely or I’ll be wrong - but I doubt it 😘
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@Mr_Derivatives Liquidity grab🤔
Will be funny seeing it pump tomorrow after $NVDA ER.
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@market_sleuth $META Reached a new ATH just four trading sessions ago.
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When Bobby Kennedy endorsed Donald Trump last week, he burned his boats. There’s no turning back for him, or for American politics. Here’s his first interview since that happened.
(0:42) RFK Jr. Endorsing Donald Trump
(11:26) Censorship and Pavel Durov’s Arrest
(34:56) America’s Health Crisis
(42:20) RFK Meeting with Trump
(46:48) Kamala Harris Refusing to Meet with RFK
(53:36) Why Did They Withdraw Secret Service?
(1:01:48) Would RFK Accept a Position as CIA Director?
(1:05:39) Why Is the Democratic Party Suing RFK?
(1:16:00) Real Environmentalism
(1:26:10) RFK's Plan to Get Trump Elected
Includes paid partnerships.
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@SEALTeam_pplus Great season so far, but we need Bravo back in the battlefield action.
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