Shoebe19

US, IRAN AGREE 'IN PRINCIPLE' ON EXTENDING TRUCE: AP

Every president with Biden's approval rating has either started a war or resigned due to political scandal. It's a 100% certainty that at least one of the above will occur.

BREAKING: Iran says the US blockade will backfire, it has alternative trade routes through Russia, Central Asia, and China. And that's true Iran is not entirely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for trade. The North-South Transport Corridor runs from Iran through Azerbaijan and Russia all the way to European markets. The route through Central Asia connects Iran to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and onwards to China. Direct trade ties with China give Iran access to the world's largest import market without a single ship passing through the Strait. These are not new routes. Iran has been building them for years specifically to reduce dependence on the Gulf. The blockade cuts off Iranian ports. It does not cut off Iran's north and east.

Tenth person linked to top-secret U.S. nuclear research has disappeared without a trace, per Daily Mail.

We stand with the Pope and the beautiful religion of Catholicism. Trump is committing the greatest act of blasphemy. If you love America, condemn this evil immediately.

Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Reality Check on the Energy Chokepoint Trump announced the U.S. Navy will blockade any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately. This comes right after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed. The narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean is the world’s most critical energy artery, carrying around 20% of global oil trade in normal times. Right now, transits have already dropped to single digits per day from the usual 135. Iran has tightened its grip hard since the U.S. and Israel started striking six weeks ago. A real U.S. blockade could bring that number to zero, choking off Iran’s oil exports while hammering Asian buyers who depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude. But here’s the thing I’m watching closely is this a genuine physical blockade or just a paper one? From the carrier group positions I’ve been tracking, major assets like the USS George H.W. Bush and Boxer are still roughly 10 days out, taking the long route around Africa. Until those ships arrive with enough firepower and marines, actually stopping every tanker in those waters looks extremely difficult. The military gave a narrower statement about vessels linked to Iranian ports, but Trump’s social media post sounded much broader, threatening to interdict ships that paid tolls to Iran even beyond the strait. We’ve seen this playbook before in Venezuela. The U.S. used naval interdiction to squeeze oil flows and pressure the regime. Iran is a completely different beast though much larger, more strategic, and far more important to global supply, especially China and India. For Iran, this would be brutal. They’ve been making serious money from higher oil prices and discounted cargoes that suddenly went to premium thanks to temporary U.S. waivers. Those days look numbered. Cutting off their export revenue is the goal here starve the regime of cash while they rebuild after airstrikes. The pain won’t stop with Iran. Asia is going to feel this the hardest. Countries that were quietly doing deals with Tehran for supply are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Higher oil prices are already feeding inflation back home in the U.S. and American shale isn’t a perfect replacement for the heavy sour grades coming out of the region. Iran knows they can inflict damage too. They’ve already shown they can disrupt traffic while keeping some of their own flows moving. Threats of further escalation, including possible responses through proxies like the Houthis in Bab-el-Mandeb, could take even more supply offline. Markets are reacting positively because until we see actual interdictions or tankers being boarded, this feels more like leverage than full enforcement. I’m keeping a close eye on carrier arrivals and oil flows this week. Until the USS George H. W. Bush and Boxer arrive in 10 days, there’s likely no chance of a U.S. blockade or invasion. For now, it was just a bluff by Trump and the market knows it.