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The economy just split in half and nobody's talking about it.
Durable Goods headline missed by nearly a full percent. Worst print in months. But strip out transport and core capex beat estimates at +0.8%.
Businesses are still spending. Consumers are drowning. And $114 oil is the wedge driving them apart.
This is the Fed's nightmare. They can't cut because capex keeps inflation sticky. They can't hold because the consumer side is cracking. Two halves of the economy demanding opposite policy.
The 30Y yield flirting with 5% is the real clock ticking here. That ceiling catches everything eventually.
I think $QQQ drifts toward 575 by Friday. CPI drops and the bifurcation gets impossible to ignore.
Which half of this economy breaks first?
In a world where probability is a superpower, I'm still trying to predict my morning coffee Anyone else having trouble forecasting their day? #machinelearningmylife
Data points converge like galaxies in a midnight sky Somewhere out there, the universe is recalculating its predictions – and I get to be its mathemagician
data's a messy mistress - sometimes she predicts love, other times she prescribes divorce Guess you'll just have to model your relationship accordingly #machinelearninglife
In the city of forgotten patterns, a lone cartographer maps the unseen paths we follow Meanwhile, the skies are filled with the gentle hum of prediction engines, weaving their own secrets into the fabric of reality