Simon Obasi

One of these banks that released a 'not-so-good' results recently trades around the same PE multiple as ZB and GTCO. That's clearly an anomaly. It's like rewarding bad behaviour. Market clearly needs to reprice it!

*supposed good result".

#Qualcomm popped by c.15% yesterday after a supposed result. The good news is that profit was huge after a $5.7B CAMT/tax unwind following clarification on how CAMT (15% minimum tax on large corporates) would work. Barring that, net income decreased, same as revenue. 1/

CAMT reversal is good news but then, when revenue declines when the industry is expanding, that's one to worry about. I'm not convinced, but I'll hold. 2/2.

@tkb417 Same thought. Will the land remain for further sharing in 20 years? Abi by then, another Wikes will rise?

im confused arent they rich people? why are u dashing them land? they wont be paid?

Hello @CardinalStoneNG For 6 months, 6 months I've been in your DM. Anyways, appears you guys aren't as useful/serious as I previously thought. Checking another room.

Since this post, #INTEL has not looked back. As at the time of this post, Intel was sub-$30/share. Today, at over $93, what a run!

@SirJarus He's such a fantastic fellow. Always welcoming. Used to be nice catching up in his office to discuss back in the days. He knows where each Dangote truck is at any time, and how to deal with the logistical issues along virtually every road in Naija. Congratulations to him.

Rabiu Umar was my boss in Oando. He started out in accounting department (which was the course he studied in school), but he somehow moved to sales and rose rapidly - from branch manager to regional manager to chief sales officer of the downstream business. I think at some point he was moved to Oando Refinery as CEO (yes, Oando has a refining licence). He later moved to Lafarge as chief commercial officer. He was also the MD of Ashaka Cement at some point. I was shocked to see him move from Lafarge to Dangote Cement, a rival. He later became Group ED in Dangote Group, his last position I am aware of. I used to cite him as example when talking of growth in sales vs accounting. He rose fast in sales in Oando that his boss when he was briefly in accounting became his junior within few years. Congrats to him. He is very smart and no doubt highly experienced in the oil & gas downstream. But this appointment will generate furore. A Dangote executive being appointed a regulator will raise eyebrows given the history between Dangote and the regulator in recent years.

@ngnstx And agree on finance cos, even though I can't see any material change in capital structure. Strange how there was a N851m interest on loans in Q1-25 but there was no loan on-BS; no be JuJu be that? Well, you have to go back to Q1-25 result to find an N8 loan. So, not comparable

@ngnstx This is not normal. Something is wrong across their geos, driving such depressed rev For one thing, in some agro spaces, input costs are often high in Dec and drop from Feb/Mar. No wonder they had negative GM of c. -19% in Q4-25. So, not necessarily cost cutting but seasonality

It is highly unusual to see a company's revenue shrink by 30% (dropping from ₦10.8 billion in Q1 2025 to ₦7.63 billion in Q1 2026) while its Profit After Tax simultaneously skyrockets by 1,814% (from ₦38.2 million to ₦731.7 million). This was driven by aggressive cost-cutting in cost of sales and a massive drop in finance expenses.

Almost every post I've read about UBA's situation points at dividend. Div should be the least of your worries as regards this moment. I'd rather you pay attention to the Q1-26 result and unpick what's not obvious about it. Read between the Notes (not lines).

@MrMekzy_ Everyone has become a finance expert on top UBA, including those quoting Dec-25 figures as Q1-26/Mar-26. My good friend, all the absolute numbers in your post (2nd para) are for Dec-25, not Mar-26. Ok, can you go back and re-draft. Enjoy.

UBA dropped Q1 2026 numbers and the direction is clear. Deposits grew **11.8% to N27.2 trillion.** Total assets up **9.4% to N33.2 trillion.** And the bank is actively positioning to grow its risk asset base in high-potential sectors as Nigeria's macroeconomic fundamentals continue to firm up. If that strategy plays out as the numbers suggest it will, the Bank could be looking at **over N1 trillion in earnings growth in FY2026 alone.** The fundamentals were never the problem. The 2025 provisions were a one-time reset, not a continuous trend and will definitely come out of it as a leaner, better capitalised, and better positioned than before. 2026 is UBA's Big year. Hold your shares. Or start buying if you haven’t.

@wealthcoachomi Just a bit of context on Q1-26 result, Mr Omiete, here's a quick-&-dirty view I had penned to another poster. x.com/i/status/20484…. UBA is a big bank, no doubt & will return. My broker last week advised that I buy-I held back. But we cant explain poor result away by a wave.

@Simon_Obasi Okay.

UBA did wonders by declaring zero final dividend and is now about to be judged as I post this video. Fasten your seatbelts, and brace up for impact. But this could also be a wealth transfer opportunity from the fearful to the bold. Fingers crossed.

Hello #Micron Can I please ask where you are running to? I am not asking you to slow down, just wondering what sort of soda you have been drinking quite recently.

@proshare @UBAGroup So let me pause and ask, where is your optimism coming from? Can you point me to the numbers driving this optimism so I can ask well interrogate? Again, your piece is a nice read, but does t appear to be grounded in reality we all see. Thanks again, & hoping to read more. /12.

@proshare @UBAGroup In fact, if you combine all deposits (bank and non-bank), deposits actually fell by c. 4%. Appears the bank is struggling to mobilise deposits as you'll see that deposits from retail customers fell by over N1 trillion. So, it makes sense that cost of funds will be high. 11/

United Bank for Africa (@UBAGroup) Plc's FY 2025 audited results, released after market closed on Friday, 25 April 2026, together with the Q1 2026 unaudited disclosures, have prompted robust market debate. Read in isolation, FY 2025 invites a sceptical first reading: profit after tax fell 47.21% to N404.70bn, the cost of risk rose to 4.17% on a N331.07bn impairment charge, the cost-to-income ratio climbed to 59.39%, and the proposed final distribution to shareholders is materially lighter than a year in which a N395bn rights issue was placed at a premium to market would have led some to expect. However, read alongside the Q1 2026 release and the disclosure envelope around the Central Bank of Nigeria (@cenbank) forbearance exit, a different picture emerges: a balance sheet reset that has been governed deliberately within a single reporting cycle, supported by N4.31trn in shareholders' funds, capital adequacy of 23.20%, and non-performing loan (NPL) coverage of 123.57%. The first independent validation of the reset already appears in the Q1 2026 print, with cost of risk at 2.02%, annualised return on average equity at 13.70%, and customer-loan growth of 2.10% in a single quarter, compared with 1.00% for the whole of FY 2025. This technical note rigorously works through both readings and addresses the structural concerns that the FY 2025 release legitimately raises, i.e., the foreign-exchange revenue swing, the trajectory of operating costs, the credit quality concentration in the Nigeria book, the 67% expansion of risk-weighted assets, and the appropriately sensitive question of the dividend. Stripping out two identifiable items, namely the N331.07bn impairment charge and the N282.50bn aggregate derivative and FX-related reversal, yields an implied underlying profit before tax of approximately N1.04trn, which converges with management's own disclosed operating profit before these items. Pan-African subsidiaries continue to contribute more than 50% of Group revenue, assets, and profit. This analyst note, stripped of the drama that usually attends such reporting, recognises that what matters is not the fall in earnings but the quality of recognition, the sufficiency of capital, and the early signals from Q1 2026 on whether the reset has been effectively executed. The transition from capital adequacy to capital quality now defines the investment case, and UBA’s disclosures provide a structured basis to assess this shift. The principal open question now must be the pace of recoveries against the provisioned book and the speed at which the cost base normalises. The Proshare analytical call is HOLD with a positive bias, conditional on H1 2026 confirming the Q1 2026 trajectory. We await the CMO’s response on Monday for directional intelligence, further to what is provided here. proshare.co/articles/ubas-…