@AnnaEconomist This guy is such a poor communicator…I cannot imagine him at the helm for 4 years
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Simona Mares
188 posts
Simona Mares
@SimonaMares20
Day trader in making
Bucharest Katılım Eylül 2022
81 Takip Edilen32 Takipçiler
@market_sleuth That was a subtle sign on 9/10. Also, price recovered after the gap down on 13, within the same area. I was long with a small position and got stopped out on gap down and reacted emotionally on the news there was a bad outcome in Islamabad. I was wrong not trading TA
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Investors invest and traders trade. I’m the latter so I don’t predict…I react to what PA this market gives. I’ve been watching the markets since 2018 and full time trading only SPX/SPY for a couple of years. This rally we are witnessing will stay in the trading books. I learned A LOT from it, especially how to mitigate risk and not transform a small loss into a huge one. I stayed disciplined. Thank you, John!
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@Basssem666 Thank you for teaching us discipline and risk management. I learned a lot from you and appreciate your guts. I call the wave from 4800 in SPX “Scotty’s wave”. I am curious how he plans to end it by 2029…
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$SPY I’m seeing a lot of frustration and even personal insults (I have a skin that’s thicker than a crocodile so it doesn’t hurt me). I need to clarify a few things though because many of you need to understand the following.
Drawdowns are a part of this business, like having multiple losing trades in a row. If you can’t survive a drawdown and blow up because of it, then go find a job and stop trading because it means you’re a gambler with terrible risk management. You don’t belong here.
When I had a crazy winning streak from late December to March, in a very tough market environment by the way, I was giving out the trades for free, just like now, and people were banking and I never asked anything in return. I still kept telling people that this isn’t how it works. I kept saying to all those who were praising me and saying I’m the “goat” or “you never lose bro!” that I lost before and I will lose again. That’s just how it is. You need to have good risk management to make more when you’re right than what you lose when you’re wrong, and I’ve been doing just that and chilling through my recent drawdown.
I survived multiple drawdowns before and always bounced back, just like I will with this one. Nothing new.
I also don’t owe any of you here anything, with all due respect, I literally don’t need any of you for anything what so ever. The revenue sharing I get from X every two weeks is peanuts, I spend more on a night out with a girl or my boys. You don’t like me or my content, just fuck off, easy.
I know there are real ones in my followers. The ones that are grateful for all the previous wins I gave for free, I know who you are and I love you all, we are going to get back to winning ways again, together!✌️
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@AdamMancini4 I entered at 6850 FBD, bonus since price defended 38.2 Fibo for a vawe 4
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There's 6848 support hit in #ES_F but volatility is still non-existent. Extreme low quality conditions here with excessive noise, chop, trapping. Trade light or not at all.
Bulls must push fast here to see 6861, 6872 (6848-72=a tight flag). 6882, 6900 above. 6840, 6826-21 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Volatility remains 0 in #ES_F. As warned, no volatility=no trades. Runners still working from Tuesday's 6592 Macro Failed Breakdown. 6848-6872=a tight flag. Today's 1st target was 6882, we ran there, rejected back into the range. 6848=support (watch traps). 6821-26 below
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@traderhc Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator, usually mark up a bottom (even if medium term)
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment just printed 47.6. Estimate was 52. That's a recession-level reading.
Real earnings came in negative. The consumer is losing purchasing power while $SPY sits at $681 like nothing happened.
CPI YoY hit 3.3% this morning. Oil touched $102 intraday. The consumer sees their gas bill and grocery receipt. They don't care that core came in a tick light.
Here's the pattern. When Michigan sentiment diverges this far below equity prices, stocks eventually catch down. Not the other way around.
Spending follows confidence with a 2-3 month lag. That puts the real pain in June.
I think SPY trades below 681.23 before month end. The market is trading the inflation print. It should be trading the consumer.
What's your read on the divergence?
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@Basssem666 Imho, this is a huge bull trap, to use retail liquidity. The close today will speak a thousand words. I learned the tough way that when it is time to short, you do not want to anymore. If the bottom is in, the next leg higher will be short lived though…
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@Basssem666 This is an excellent short set-up. To me, the line in the sand is ~ 6643 in SPX. If we close below it this week, this Hurmuz rally will fade
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$SPY My biggest position in a very long time. I’ll add a little more if we squeeze higher to 680-682 but I’m already balls deep into puts like a maniac. If it hits it’ll make my trading year not just month and will offset any losses from the past 3 trades.
I’m not revenge trading by the way. I took a significantly bigger position here because the risk/reward is totally worth it.
Bassem@Basssem666
$SPY this one looks good. It should open under 10.00 per contract or around there. It’ll print so hard just on a gap fill not even the full thesis and it has time. I’ll take a 30-35% L on the small position I had opened and will roll into that. That’ll be a BIG position.
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@Basssem666 I don”t like the PA. How it’s “chewing” here, especially. If 1st leg down was this huge wedge, then these guys can push up to 6800+ for a vawe 2
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$SPY Good morning. Below is a reminder of the different paths I think price can take to reach the same destination.
I won’t do much today other than switching from 650 p May 1st to 650 May 15. I’ll scale in with only half here and I’ll add more near 661-662 or higher.
Bassem@Basssem666
$SPY 3 different routes, one ultimate destination. That’s how I see the price action for the next 2-4 weeks. 1- A move up towards 660-663, followed by a move down all the way to 631 minimum. 2- A stronger move up towards 666-672, followed by a move down all the way to 631 minimum. 3- No more room for a move up and the path to 631 minimum starts immediately from here. Obviously the drop to 631 doesn’t necessarily have to be in a straight line, wherever it starts going down, although that’s possible, for sure.
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I fully agree with the destination and I believe it will be reached within 2-4 days, irrespective of the scenario. If this bounce was a wave 4, we will not gap up but we may reverse swiftly after the new lows to make the real squeeze. If this is wave 2, the short will be epic but the pain trade will be towards 6750 first. This will be the challenge for bears. If 660-663 holds with momentum, the 3rd scenario is invalidated. I always ask myself: what if the trap in this set-up?
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$SPY 3 different routes, one ultimate destination. That’s how I see the price action for the next 2-4 weeks.
1- A move up towards 660-663, followed by a move down all the way to 631 minimum.
2- A stronger move up towards 666-672, followed by a move down all the way to 631 minimum.
3- No more room for a move up and the path to 631 minimum starts immediately from here.
Obviously the drop to 631 doesn’t necessarily have to be in a straight line, wherever it starts going down, although that’s possible, for sure.
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@Basssem666 @SecScottBessent The fact the pullback found support at such an important inflexion point but did not follow through to take out PDH and the volumes faded, makes me think it is a bull trap.
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$SPY I just don’t understand at all how can oil be up 13% on the day and above $110! While spy is down about $2 on the day. Something is not right. @SecScottBessent is that you bro ?
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@Basssem666 Good luck, Sir! You are an excellent trader. I keep learning from you, especially as regards the discipline and mindset. I am reluctant due to Trump but maybe this is exactly what they “want”…
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$SPY she’s right. It’s very risky but I’ve had my best wins ever in risky trades like this one. Last year I had spy puts before the liberation day announcement and it was historic. It obviously can blow up in my face this time but I’ll be fine regardless. Wish me luck folks🤞🏼
Miss Margin 🦋@TradingPapillon
@Basssem666 Taking a risk with Trump tonight still makes me hesitate to be honest. But let's see. Wishing you good luck with the trade, Bassem.
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@satymahajan Happy birthday! And huge thanks for all your wisdom sharing!
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@Basssem666 Hello! What if 23.6 Fibo is from October 2022 and not April 2025? I would have expected a stronger reaction (except for that spike of March 23… ) given the cumulative 50 weekly MA support.
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$SPY Price chose option 4 today which I thought was the least likely 😂
I already gave out my weekly outlook in another post I just published.
I’ll redraw the fib extensions once the overnight session opens on Sunday evening, and I’ll draw different pathways on the 4H similar to the one I did before. I think they are easy on the eye and can be very beneficial to visualise the move before it happens and be prepared.
I’m logging off for real now, that’s enough for today. I’ll check back with you all later 👋
Bassem@Basssem666
$SPY I’m still viewing this as a downtrend. I’m expecting a bounce, not a reversal. Scenarios from here: 1- Bounce into 656-660, rejection, then a continuation lower. 2- Push into 669–676 (ideal), strongest short zone. This one can extend to 682-83 where I’ll add heavier shorts. 3- Weak bounce to 652-655 / chop, then bleed lower 4- Straight breakdown from here is possible, but least likely. Price needs to close below 642 on the weekly to trigger it. This correction can get uglier, and I believe the worst is still ahead of us. However, I tend to lean towards a deceiving corrective bounce before the next leg down, as long as we close above 642 on the weekly. 642 is around the 50 weekly sma, and it’s also the 23.60% fib retracement level from the all time highs. I don’t think it’ll break easily. Historically the 50 weekly sma acts as a very strong support. Once price starts closing below it, all hell break loose, but it doesn’t close below it easily though, even if it wicks below temporarily. It’s all about the close. We also saw how strongly price reacted near it twice this week alone, so that tells you how important it is. Tomorrow’s close is important and I think we can get decent trade opportunities in either directions. Let’s see how the market opens and have a goodnight 😴
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@Basssem666 If we bounce today even AH, the short squeeze will be epic, but this scenario would be too predictable ... Seems “they” do it on purpose …and allow this slow PA to keep longs out over the weekend. Wonder what gives?
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