Simple Trader

How much has improved since 10/10 infra wise?

Crypto propaganda is extremely well oiled. Taking this aside, one by one then whole segments of this market might collapse since 10/10 broke the markets back. Like its '21. Chips are falling apart in an AI bonanza too. High capex vs free luch makes little sense.

What a surprise after second leg down and Sunday's bounce. The reaction to the 10/10 event from crypto industry leaders were no surprise at all. All of them are sell side hassle. Nothing more.

China's rare earth: news and a report hit my desk on Thursday around 10am UTC. Now, left to my own devices.

Binance? you must be out of your senses to lend them any money at any price or interest (aka trade there)

Full collapse of an illusion. Weight of tokens transfered at lows are a problem. Its hard to be constructive short term. GL

@yq_acc Thank you for your explanation.

It’s cascade. Too much traffic pressured on the server when price was down too much and liquidation started. The server service downgraded a lot and mms couldn’t move assets for margins and place bids. Then more collateral got liquidated, mark price was further down that caused spiral.

@yq_acc Alts accelerated ~UTC 21:16. USDE deppeged 21:20 WBETH 21:43 Their depeg was the effect not an impulse.

Most of CT, including industry leaders, internalize & normalize crime and weak structures daily. Some do it bluntly, some covered in a quasi philosofical 1st grade concepts souce. but today, they will all wish you well and GL. nothing ever happens.

One of many world salad full of bushit. what happened was nothing short of fundamental failure of core crypto market structure design praised just a day before by those writing all of this nonsense today.

There are many "things" fundamentally wrong about this. I hope its their last hurray of this type. Ever. Its irrelevant but I have not made or lost money this time here. Its simply very wrong. Picture unrelated.

@AriDavidPaul Strictly TA speaking Ari, there are reasons to be concerned atm. Fully agree on your general trend takes.

My market take from 30,000 feet. The general trend is towards a late stage capitalism blow off top over next 3-8 years. That means fiat depreciation, most risk assets rallying; gold, silver, and particularly bitcoin doing well. BUT, we’re currently in a countertrend move that could last a year. Lots of forces supporting a strong USD locally - the stablecoin bill may generate a trillion dollars of marginal USD and t-bill demand. The growing fiscal deficits are strongly bullish USD (until people lose confidence in US debt eventually.) Geopolitically, we may be in for a lull in conflict that increases risk appetite with Russia and Iran both much weaker than many anticipated. The really scary geopolitical conflict comes when China invades Taiwan, might have a few years before then.) Bitcoin’s high time frame idiosyncratic strength suggests to me that it may perform reasonably well even amidst a general countertrend move (and then when geopolitical tailwinds are back in its favor, it’ll go parabolic.) I’ll be adding exposure on any major pullbacks (I’m already long, a pullback to $92k area would be healthy.) Lots of rooms for good news in equities with AI agents producing massive productivity gains that translate to corporate revenues in non-AI companies soon. Similarly, the pace of medical advances tied to AI research is starting to go parabolic, life expectancies sharply rising. Biggest risk to a portfolio of alternative assets is increasingly non-market. Social engineering attacks, nationalization of property, sharply changing local laws that may devalue real estate on a dime, and confiscatory tax regimes are all rising risks in many places and for many assets.

The fresh, newborn Islamic Republic of Iran, isolated, under gunned, fought nearly 8 years long war with Iraq. Supported by "the west". I wouldnt call them green shaky rookies. They have proven some solid staying power back then. But it must be different this time.

Regime change by overwhelming firepower. Fine. What if they wont? When they simply refuse to give up? Like Ukrainians.

@Raph_Bloch @0xG00gly Lesson in there

Bitcoin price at Pope Francis's election (March 2013): $45 Bitcoin price at Pope Leo XIV's election (May 2025): $100,000

Empty shelfs

bet on China wining this fuckup with a pinch of EU was a winning trade. For US its Nixon 2.0 Why take the risk that one lovely Sun everything might change? Anyway, since its set and done: TP

What a shitshow. And almost every one jumps like a monkey in an orange circus.