@CinemaTweets1 He is absolutely outstanding on Industry. I hope he gets bigger and bigger opportunities.
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Robert Skipwith
2.6K posts
Robert Skipwith
@SkipwithRobert
Crusty Portfolio Manager/Global Macro- Chicago
Katılım Ocak 2020
2K Takip Edilen308 Takipçiler
Ken Leung is a brilliant actor. His work on HBO’s Industry is worthy of tremendous praise. If there’s one thing I wish #ProjectHailMary had more of, it’s this guy. He’s a lifetime actor who elevates every project he touches. More people should know this man’s name. Actor’s actor.
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@jedimarkus77 Took longer than I thought it would but that had a tractor beam on it.
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@chucktodd Yes. We haven't closed over 50K since that day. Jinxed the hell out of the market.
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Was this the last time the Dow was over 50K? This clip will be shown to future politicians as a reminder of why you NEVER attach your political fortunes to the stock market.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Bondi crashes out over Epstein: "The Dow is over 50,000 dollars! I don't know why you're laughing. You're a great stock trader as I hear, Raskin. The Dow is over 50,000 right now. The S&P at almost 7,000, and the Nasdaq smashing records. That's what we should be talking about."
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@shanaka86 has been absolutely brilliant in his coverage of the Iranian war and its implications.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
JUST IN: The Strait of Hormuz is open. It has been open every day since February 28. The IRGC never closed it. What the IRGC did is convert 21 miles of international waterway into a permissioned gate with a toll booth, a vetting process, and a guest list. Traffic has collapsed 70 to 80 percent. But the handful of tankers that transit each day do so with IRGC clearance, paid in yuan or USDT, at $2 million to $4 million per vessel. The process is now documented. A tanker operator contacts an IRGC-linked intermediary. The operator submits vessel ownership, flag state, cargo manifest, destination, crew list, and AIS transponder data. The IRGC runs background checks: no US-linked ownership, no Israeli cargo, no flagging to aggressor states. If approved, a toll is negotiated. Payment is executed in cash, Chinese yuan, or USDT on the Tron network. The IRGC issues VHF radio clearance with a specific time window and route through Iranian territorial waters near Larak Island, where IRGC Navy performs visual confirmation. The vessel transits. No physical escort is provided. The “protection” is the removal of the interdiction threat. You are safe because the entity that would attack you has decided not to. China passes. India passes. Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Iraq, Bangladesh pass. Shadow fleet operators aligned with Russia pass. Not all pay the full toll. Some receive exemptions through government-to-government arrangements. Some pay reduced rates. Some pay nothing because the geopolitical alignment is payment enough. The system is not a blockade. It is a membership club with a cover charge denominated in currencies that are not the US dollar. And here is what nobody is covering. Lloyd’s of London and the international insurance market have withdrawn standard hull and machinery coverage for Hormuz transits. War-risk policies now carry premiums of up to 5 percent of vessel value, $5 million for a $100 million tanker, per voyage. But the actuarial models that price those premiums now incorporate IRGC vetting status as a risk-reduction variable. If a vessel can prove it has paid the toll and received VHF clearance, the probability of loss drops from above 20 percent to below 5 percent. The same models that price hurricane risk and earthquake exposure are now pricing IRGC compliance as a safety factor. The insurance industry has done something no government intended: it has formalised IRGC authority over the strait in actuarial mathematics. A tanker that pays the toll is insurable. A tanker that does not is stranded. Dozens of vessels sit outside the strait right now, unable to transit because no underwriter will cover them. The insurance withdrawal is not a market reaction. It is a structural enforcement mechanism that makes IRGC permission the prerequisite for commercial shipping. Every toll paid in yuan is a barrel that settled outside the dollar system. Every USDT transaction on Tron is a 3-second settlement bypassing SWIFT and sanctions. Iran’s parliament is drafting legislation to formalise the toll as “security compensation.” If that bill passes, ad-hoc extortion becomes sovereign law, and the precedent for chokepoint monetisation enters the international legal framework. Gold watches from the side. Spot prices muted at $5,000 to $5,400 by dollar strength and rising yields, while central banks in China, Russia, and India quietly accumulate on every dip. The short-term safe-haven has not fired. The long-term de-dollarization trade is loading. The strait is open. The molecules move. But only for those who pay the toll, in the currency the toll booth accepts, after the vetting the toll booth requires. The rest wait. The clocks tick. Saturday arrives. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Robert Skipwith retweetledi
hey @SECGov who inside the White House had insider access to Iran War planning and front ran the news?
are you going to arrest them or are you still useless as ever?
tic toc@TicTocTick
Two minutes before that Iran post, someone purchased 42000 lots in a single trade. This trade would have made a profit of $500 million in half an hour for whoever bought this.
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@SPXTrades Given how many times he’s tried this, I’m kind of surprised the bid is holding up here, even after the Iranians refuted the claims.
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@mark_dow Amazing. POTUS wants out of this snafu so damn badly.
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Robert Skipwith retweetledi
@SPXTrades Very ugly price action. So much for a flight to safety asset, sheesh!
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@robin_j_brooks It has stood out like a sore thumb the last few weeks. That Sunday night after the initial attack, it gapped up and we've been going down ever since. Gold and Treasuries which I consider flight to safety assets have done very poorly contrary to my initial guesses.
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I'm a fan of the debasement trade and think precious metals will keep going higher over the medium term. But the fact that gold keeps falling when it should act as a safe haven also isn't nothing. Gold is now down 12% since war began in contrast to 2022...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-gold-no-l…
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@SantiagoAuFund It’s so damn good. Have to pay attention like a hawk though. Arguably the most complex show I’ve ever seen.
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Warning: high levels of funk detected. Commodores with “Machine Gun”
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@mark_dow Those PPI numbers were about as bad as imaginable and the war hadn't even started yet.
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@Ike_Saul Agreed. I thought it was better than anything I've read in western media outlets.
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Pretty compelling piece in al-Jazeera (!) today arguing that the U.S.-Israeli plan is working quite well: Trump has degraded Iran militarily, proxies are fragmenting, Strait of Hormuz pain being most felt by China, etc. Actually quite convincing. Curious for the dissents.
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@jedimarkus77 Guilty, HA! Always wondered how those companies made money until you missed sending back the "nothing this month" card and got charged like $22 for a CD.
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