James Smith

We still think the Bank of England will cut rates in November, even if many others don't. Why? Watch this from @SmithEconomics

Don't miss our webinar next week in which our economists (@carstenbrzeski, @smitheconomics and @michieltukker) chat through their key calls for the eurozone and euro market rates – and, crucially, the risks that could prove them wrong. Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/webin…

While the bar for the Bank of England to speed up rate cuts seems to be set fairly high, today's UK jobs data helps cement cuts in August and November, writes @smitheconomics. think.ing.com/snaps/shock-uk…

No need to phone a friend when @SmithEconomics can give (probably) correct answers to all your global questions about the financial world next week... think.ing.com/articles/think…

That big rise in UK services inflation was almost entirely down to road tax and Easter. It should fall back 5.4% in April to the 4.5% area this summer

Tomorrow’s inflation data looks highly unpredictable. But the story on services inflation is getting better and should continue to improve into the summer, enabling the BoE to cut rates further (though maybe not faster) than markets expect think.ing.com/articles/why-t…

'Is it fair to say that sucking up by offering a state visit to Donald Trump actually paid off?' Economist James Smith tells @AliMirajUK that 'diplomacy didn't matter for anybody', as the UK gets 'lumped' with 10% tariffs.

Looking forward to chatting with @AliMirajUK on @LBC at the top of the hour. Can’t imagine what we’ll be talking about…

The UK's problems with tax and spend are shared right across Europe. Watch this!

UK services inflation is stuck at 5% and will stay around there for the next few months. But @SmithEconomics says steady improvements could be the catalyst for faster Bank of England rate cuts next spring than markets are currently pricing. Here's why: think.ing.com/snaps/sticky-u…

Jack and the Beanstalk: the perfect pantomime for the global economy? Oh not it isn’t! (Spoiler, yes Jack does get hit by Agricultural Property Relief…) think.ing.com/articles/think…

In this week’s THINK aloud, @knightleyeco, @carstenbrzeski and @smitheconomics discuss the themes that will shape the global economy, inflation and interest rates over the coming year. think.ing.com/podcasts/liste…

Not many people are singing Europe’s economic praises right now, but maybe it’s time to start humming a different tune. Be more like Nicole. Or @SmithEconomics think.ing.com/articles/think…

There’s a big caveat to these latest Bank of England forecasts. The budget measures are included, but the market reaction since is not. If the increase in market rates since the budget had been factored in then the upward revisions to growth/CPI would be more modest

#Trump has declared victory in the 2024 elections. What does his win mean for the economy? A lower tax environment that should boost sentiment and spending in the near term. But promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will become headwinds. More here: think.ing.com/articles/trump…

@notayesmansecon They were indeed, though more so later in the forecast. This is the chart that was doing the rounds yesterday from the OBR. Higher growth & inflation as a direct result of policy next year. I’m sceptical it makes much diff to BoE, but some investors seem to disagree

@SmithEconomics Weren't the growth forecasts lowered James?

UK markets have been on a wild ride since the budget announcement. Big tax rises are coming, but not as quickly as big spending increases. And the prospect of higher growth has led investors to reconsider Bank of England rate cut prospects think.ing.com/articles/uk-bo…

Our @SmithEconomics is miffed he's not off to the IMF next week. These are the questions he'd be asking the financial glitterati. ⬇️ think.ing.com/articles/think…

UK services inflation has fallen much further than expected and, crucially, is well below the Bank of England’s most recent forecasts. If that continues, and we think it will, then rate cuts are likely to accelerate beyond November, writes @smitheconomics think.ing.com/snaps/plunging…

Unemployment may be down but so are vacancies. It’ll take time, but we think wages are heading lower, and that means faster Bank of England rate cuts think.ing.com/snaps/uk-jobs-…