Tom Snedden

By my reckoning, this day will be remembered as perhaps the most difficult days of Keir Starmer’s premiership yet, with even close allies telling me there are not sure where it will end. His admission in Prime Ministers Questions that he knew of the ongoing friendship between Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein hardened the sentiment of many a Labour MP who was willing to give the PM the benefit of the doubt and support the government’s amendment on the humble address. Insiders tell me that changed when the PM told the house that security vetting had confirmed the continued friendship between Mandelson and Epstein after he was jailed for child prostitution offences, leaving MPs furious at the Prime Minister, and his aides, for allowing Mandelson back into the heart of government given what they knew of him. For some MPs, this was an unforgivable lapse of judgement. From there, the government whips has to re-draft their amendment to the Tories’ humble address to ensure that it was the intelligence and security committee, and not No 10, that determined which of the Mandelson files should be released and which should be held back in the interests of national security and international relations. The government did manage to avoid a blow up over this, but that No 10 had to cave to backbenchers, led by Angela Rayner, concerned about a “cover up” is symbolic of the breakdown of trust. There were rumours flying around that Morgan McSweeney was about to resign - as a few MP’s publicly called for him to do so over the decision to reinsert Mandelson into government in 2025. I’d describe the mood in parliament this evening as a tinderbox, with even some of the PM’s allies unsure about whether the situation is about to erupt. When I asked one senior ally whether there could be a challenge or resignations that could predicate a challange, there was a long pause: “temperatures are running high” said the figure, acknowledging that when the mood is as it is, and Starmer is where he is in the polls, someone moving against him is a risk. Another senior figure told me that many MPs felt deeply compromised over the scandal, including some ministers. Asked if he could survive, one minister told me" "I don't think so. Many in the party are beyond upset." As for the No 10 end, there is deep frustration this evening that the government has been blocked by the Met from releasing information about what Mandelson told the PM and others about this relationship with Epstein as he returned to government. The intention had been to release this information straight away in order to back up what the PM said in the Commons, but as of this evening Downing Street has been thwarted. There is a view that the release would have been helpful because it would have perhaps led to MPs to direct their anger at Mandelson. The PM’s team are in a bind because they want the information out, but they don’t want to do anything that would affect a criminal investigation with the Met. One option for Downing Street now could be to go back to the Met and see what they can release. But with their hands tied, and the mood this febrile, the Prime Minister is in a precarious position as Mandelson crisis raises MPs’ anger and leadership speculation all over again.