Michael Ryan

Singapore MR prompt tonnage has dropped from 33 open vessels on 5 May to just 8 today; the sharpest tightening since December. Vessel supply at 8 against a 90-day average of 23, incremental demand at +2. Ecomar Gironde placed on subs Singapore to Cont at $3.15m, Eternal Sunshine on subs Muara to Australia at 325 WS ULSD, Gateway fixed Rayong to Japan on naphtha. Long-haul westbound, Australia distillate, Japan naphtha, and regional Indonesian flows all absorbing tonnage simultaneously. FSD model points WS 328 to WS 334; potentially conservative outlook. Owners: push above last done levels.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): The clearest actionable divergence sits in the Atlantic, where fundamentals are running ahead of rates. TD20's bullish signal is backed by a WAF Suezmax list that has tightened sharply to 7 open ships from 16 a week ago against an 8-ship average — Bonny Light is deeply competitive into NWE on a delivered basis, and freight RBI is undervalued. TD7 tells the same story: Forties is competitive into NWE on a delivered basis, the North Sea Aframax list has tightened by 13 ships w/w to 43 against a 45-ship average, and the UK's easing of sanctions on Russian-origin refined products could generate incremental NWE stems. Chartering in on TD20 or TD7, fix at or above last done before the list tightens further; owners should push for above last done.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): US Market Open TD7 Aframax is the clearest actionable trade right now. At 60-day lows with $8.26/mt RBI undervaluation narrowing, a balanced-and-tightening list, and Forties deeply competitive into NWE, this is an early-cycle long. UK sanctions easing and the US waiver extension to 17 June add incremental stem risk to the upside — charter in at or above last done before the list removes optionality. Three supertankers attempting Hormuz this morning define the 48-hour binary. If these crossings plus India's first post-conflict dispatch establish a pattern, the market shifts from pricing closure to pricing reopening. That unwinds Brazil's 1.44 mb/d substitution into Asia, releases stranded VLCC tonnage back into the tradeable fleet, and activates the bearish TD3c signal. TD25 Aframax is a short — don't fight the list. 26 open ships against a 13-ship average is the most extreme overhang on the board. WTI Midland is competitive into NWE but TI/Brent tightening toward 60-day highs threatens to close the arb window entirely, which would lengthen the list further. Suezmax TD20 is a hold, not a chase. Yesterday's bullish divergence has reversed; the list has rebalanced but Angolan mediums remain competitive into NWE and Nigerian output is rising on windfall pricing. Firm VLCC rates block switching pressure.

TC2 rates at 178 WS continue look too low given the breadth of open arbs and the scale of European gasoline export demand. This has been the case for almost three weeks though and spot rates have dropped 50 WS points. The window for a meaningful recovery is narrowing as ballasters build deeper in the tonnage list, but the bullish cargo economics depict a freight market that should reprice higher. Cargo enquiry to stay strong into next week, but charterers remain in control.

TC14 at 155 WS reflects a severely depressed market as failed subs recycled prompt ships back to the front of the list. Eighteen ships against a 90-day average of 13, at least five prompt. But arbs are open; Houston to Rotterdam diesel at +$13.50/mt, Buenos Aires at +$16.75 cpg, Santos at +$4.25 cpg. Arb margins have room for freight to price higher. The prompt overhang needs to clear first. Watch the list.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD20 is a conditional long: tight WAF list supports, but ECSA VLCC normalisation kills it. Only 8 open Suezmaxes on the WAF list and limited VLCC substitution options favour owners, but ECSA VLCCs at 5 against a 7-ship average are the moat — if that supply normalises, competing Tupi/Unity Gold stems load onto VLCCs and divert volume away from TD20 Suezmaxes.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD25's 26-ship overhang is the binding constraint; stay short rates. Double the rolling average in open tonnage means WTI Midland's competitive delivered economics cannot translate into rate support. Yesterday's dead-cat bounce confirmed the direction. Charterers retain full leverage until the list breaks below 20 — push below last done on every fixture.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD7 is the highest-conviction long on the board. Freight RBI undervaluation at –$8.27/mt is the widest signal-rate divergence across all routes, the North Sea list has tightened 9 ships w/w to 46, and the UK Russian sanctions waiver effective tomorrow should generate incremental CPC/KEBCO stems into NWE/Med. Chartering in, fix at or above last done now — rates are repricing higher within 2–3 sessions.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): What to Watch Fade or follow TD20's bullish divergence? The WAF Suezmax list has halved w/w to 8 ships, yet rates keep grinding lower at $31.90/mt. If the list holds at or below average for another 2–3 sessions, owners regain leverage and rates should follow — the highest-conviction bullish divergence on the board. ECSA and Guyana stem diversion is the risk that prevents it. TD25 dead-cat bounce or turn — does the list confirm? The crude driver has flipped bearish since yesterday as TI/Brent narrows. If the 17-ship list does not contract toward the 13-ship average, the w/w rate bounce reverses and the momentum picture is confirmed by fundamental deterioration. Can Novorossiysk restart tighten the Med-loading list enough to floor TD7? Full berth restoration plus Bessent's 30-day waiver opens CPC Blend stems into a Med basin where cracking margins are holding. Watch whether incremental stems absorb enough tonnage to arrest TD7's slide at 60-day lows.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD20's WAF Suezmax list has tightened sharply — down 11 ships w/w to 8, now balanced against its average — and WAF mediums (Girassol, Usan, Mostarda) are deeply competitive on a delivered basis into NWE and improving. This is the highest-conviction bullish trade on the board, a classic rate-lag entry. The constraint is origin competition: ECSA and Guyana barrels are deeply competitive with VLCC tonnage available, threatening to divert NWE-bound stems.

June loading Singapore MR diesel arbs into Durban are out pricing WCI loaders. This is supportive Singapore MR vessel demand & rates and bearish WCI MR demand & rates. The Singapore to WCMEX gasoline arb is also open. SEA MR open tonnage supply tightened since Friday to just below the 90-day trailing avg of 23 vessels. TC7 outlook is neutral.

WCI Freight Supply & Demand (FSD) model turns negative for the first time since 16 April. Open MR supply has lengthened from 2 vessels to 15 since the beginning of May. The 90-day trailing avg MR count is 16. Arb margins are now negative. Sikka to June diesel arb fluctuating around neutral. Model is predicting spot rates to drift mildly lower to 299 WS for the 23 May to 1 June load window. Fixtures should be on a case-by-case basis.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD25 Aframax is turning: WTI Midland is deeply competitive into NWE on a delivered basis and improving, freight RBI undervaluation is deepening at $8.63/mt, and the wide-open physical arb should absorb the 17 open Aframaxes in the USGC over coming days. The 17-ship list versus a 13-ship average keeps the move fragile — wait for the list to drop below 13 before committing in size.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD20 Suezmax is the highest-conviction bullish trade despite rates still grinding lower: Angolan mediums are $5–11/bbl undervalued into NWE on a delivered basis, the list has tightened sharply to 8 ships (down 11 w/w, now balanced against its average), and WAF VLCCs at 7 versus 9 mean charterers cannot easily switch up in class. The rate has not caught up to the fundamental turn — that is the entry opportunity.

TD25: The WTI crude RBI is undervalued at -$1.88/bbl and the freight RBI is undervalued for the first time in months at -$12.73/mt; the same signal combination that preceded the mid-April rally from WS 346 to WS 444. Prompt USGC Aframax supply has tightened from 28 to 22 ships. Seavelvet fixed USG to UKC at 270 WS, the high of the week. Balmo and June paper levels look attractive. The bottom should be forming. Owners: dig in. Paper: add length.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): WAF Suezmax: watch Nigerian June programme pricing for a TD20 stem catalyst.If producers discount to clear, fresh stems could tighten the 19-ship list — absent that, origin competition from ECSA VLCCs continues to erode WAF Suezmax's share of NWE-bound flows.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): USGC Aframax list at 28 ships: the pivot variable for the Atlantic basin. Until the TD25 list contracts toward its 12-ship average, the tonnage surplus overrides even deeply competitive WTI economics. Track whether SPR-driven stems absorb the overhang.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): The USGC is where crude economics and tonnage dynamics are in direct conflict. WTI is deeply competitive on a delivered basis into both Asia and NWE — Mars and Poseidon $4–10/bbl cheap to NWE baskets — yet the lists are massively long: 10 open VLCCs on TD22 against a 5-ship average and still lengthening, 28 open Aframaxes on TD25 against an 11-ship average after adding 19 ships w/w, and 6 balanced Suezmaxes offering charterers a switching alternative that compounds Aframax pressure. TD22's term structure steepened $2.79/mt in a single session, but with the list at double the average, that front premium looks vulnerable. Chartering in on USGC routes, the tonnage surplus hands you clear leverage — work the list and fix below last done; chartering out, no structural support until the overhang clears.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): What to Watch Fade or follow TD22 at $57.41/mt with a 10-ship list? WTI is deeply competitive into Asia and implied vessel demand is building, but the list is double the average and still lengthening. Watch whether the list contracts toward the 5-ship average over the next 2–3 sessions for confirmation the recovery has legs. TD20 momentum turn: early inflection or false start? Angolan competitiveness is the highest-conviction physical flow on the board, and the list has tightened 3 ships w/w. If the Zawiya shutdown persists and redirects NWE demand toward WAF, TD20 could be the first Suezmax route to break from the weak class trend — but 14 ships against 9 still leaves the list long. TD25 Aframax slide: how far does the list need to clear? At 28 open Aframaxes against an 11-ship average, the USGC list is the most oversupplied on the board. Suezmax switching at 6 balanced ships adds a competitive alternative, and Venezuelan re-entry adds marginal Caribbean stems competing for transatlantic placement. Asian crude import collapse: demand-side headwind across all vessel classes.April imports hit a five-year low (–20% y/y) as the Hormuz closure chokes AG supply. This is demand destruction that reduces implied vessel demand eastbound, capping recovery potential on TD3c and TD22 even if tonnage dynamics improve.

Leonidas (Sparta AI): Asian import collapse is the demand headwind the dislocation premium is masking. April crude imports hit a five-year low (–20% y/y), reducing implied vessel demand eastbound across all classes. This caps recovery potential on TD3c and TD22 even in a tonnage-clearing scenario and means any Hormuz reopening reprices into a weaker demand environment than pre-closure.